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Message
247: ESPN FPI predicts LSU's season game-by-game
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:04 am
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:04 am
LINK
What is the FPI?
quote:
ESPN tabbed LSU as the No. 18 team in the country in its initial Football Power Index released earlier in April. Three months later, ESPN recently released an updated version that corrected some errors in data and modeling, but the Tigers stayed put.
That No. 18 ranking is in the ballpark of where many others slotted the Tigers, who have been ranked as high as No. 7 to not ranked at all in preseason polls.
The FPI gives LSU a 1.8 percent chance of winning the SEC Western Division and a 0.5 percent chance of winning the SEC championship. The odds of making it to the college football playoff are at 0.4, while the Tigers have a 0.1 percent chance of making it to the championship game and a 0.0 percent chance of winning it all.
What is the FPI?
quote:
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.
quote:
FPI Prediction: LSU has a 65.3% chance to beat the Bruins.
FPI Prediction: LSU has a 99.0% chance to beat the Cowboys.
FPI Prediction: LSU has a 90.2% chance to beat the Chippewas
FPI Prediction: LSU has a 50.9% chance to beat the Bulldogs.
FPI Prediction: LSU has a 54.8% chance to beat the Tigers.
FPI Prediction: LSU has a 56.1% chance to beat the Wildcats.
FPI Prediction: LSU has a 47.2% chance to beat the Gators.
FPI Prediction: LSU has a 45.0% chance to beat the Rebels.
FPI Prediction: LSU has a 9.3% chance to beat the Crimson Tide.
FPI Prediction: LSU has a 71.2% chance to beat the Razorbacks.
FPI Prediction: LSU has a 98.1% chance to beat the Warhawks.
FPI Prediction: LSU has a 35.7% chance to beat the Aggies.
27
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:06 am to Captain Crown
Didn't this have us still at #3 at the end of 2019?
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:07 am to Captain Crown
quote:
FPI Prediction: LSU has a 35.7% chance to beat the Aggies.
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:08 am to Captain Crown
FPI is voodoo
It’s pseudoscience at the finest.
It’s pseudoscience at the finest.
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:10 am to Captain Crown
LSU is going to surprise some people. The Aggies won't be favored when we play them.
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:10 am to Captain Crown
I think Florida and A&M are being significant overrated. The true threats this year are Alabama and Ole Miss (really depends on how well that defense can improve)
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:16 am to Captain Crown
FPI is useless
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:21 am to MasterAbe1
I think Dan Mullin is one of the best coaches of Bad QBs, but he’s isn’t a magician and I dont Get the hype of Emory at all. He’s been there 2 years. Got beat out by Felipe Franks and Trask.
He’s throw about 12 passes a year against SEC teams and they’re usually designed gadget passes.
I dont Get why he’s all of a sudden going to improve that Florida team losing its 2 best receivers
He’s throw about 12 passes a year against SEC teams and they’re usually designed gadget passes.
I dont Get why he’s all of a sudden going to improve that Florida team losing its 2 best receivers
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:26 am to Caymus
I don't buy into percentages but just saw it was updated so I wanted to share 
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:28 am to Captain Crown
Looks like the 2019 outlook.
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:33 am to Captain Crown
If the letters FPI are involved, I completely ignore it.
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:35 am to Captain Crown
The ESPN FPI is the biggest biased poison in college football. I never ever even look at that garbage and roll my eyes every time I hear someone even reference that garbage.
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:38 am to Captain Crown
Always good for LSU to be ranked preseason out of the top 10. This is a good omen.
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:45 am to Captain Crown
I think we have better than 9% chance of beating bama. Maybe 15%
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:46 am to Captain Crown
In case anyone was wondering
Here's what the FPI predicted for the 2019 season:
Georgia Southern 96.7%
Texas 74.4%
Northwestern 99.8%
Vandy 84%
Utah State 97.9%
Florida 70.3%
Moo State 65.3%
Auburn 71.8%
Alabama 25.2%
Ole Miss 82.7%
Arkansas 94.2%
A&M 73.4%
So the FPI did a pretty good job of identifying LSU being really good headed into 2019. The only two picks I have a gripe with for 2021 are Florida and A&M. Neither should be favored to win a game in TS.
Here's what the FPI predicted for the 2019 season:
Georgia Southern 96.7%
Texas 74.4%
Northwestern 99.8%
Vandy 84%
Utah State 97.9%
Florida 70.3%
Moo State 65.3%
Auburn 71.8%
Alabama 25.2%
Ole Miss 82.7%
Arkansas 94.2%
A&M 73.4%
So the FPI did a pretty good job of identifying LSU being really good headed into 2019. The only two picks I have a gripe with for 2021 are Florida and A&M. Neither should be favored to win a game in TS.
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:48 am to SammyTiger
quote:
FPI is voodoo. pseudoscience at the finest.
#trustthescience
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:53 am to SammyTiger
Trust the pseudoscience 
Posted on 7/19/21 at 11:57 am to Captain Crown
quote:
FPI Prediction: LSU has a 9.3% chance to beat the Crimson Tide.
We have less than a 10% chance to beat Bama? Okay.
To frame that into context, they gave Central Michigan a 9.8% chance to beat LSU.
Central Michigan has a better shot at beating LSU this year than LSU does beating Bama?
Come on man.
Posted on 7/19/21 at 12:02 pm to MasterAbe1
quote:
I think Florida and A&M are being significant overrated. The true threats this year are Alabama and Ole Miss (really depends on how well that defense can improve)
Literally exactly what I've been saying for months. Florida and A&M are very very overrated IMO and I think we beat them both. They don't scare me at all.
The only teams on the schedule I see us maybe losing to is Bama and Ole Miss.
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