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shoelessjoe
LSU Fan
Member since Jul 2006
7695 posts

Will lumber prices go down by years end?
Wife and I are building our dream home at the end of the year but these lumber prices are making me rethink until next year. Are there any indication that it will go down by years end? I am not talking about pre China flu levels. I am talking about 600-700 per 1000 board feet. Any signs or hope would be appreciated. I know there have been numerous threads about lumber prices but none about the future of it. Appreciate the replies.


zephry801
USA Fan
Member since Dec 2017
336 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
No


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140
TDsngumbo
USA Fan
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
30373 posts
 Online 

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
They’re getting that price now so why would they ever go down?


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272
Cracker
Montana Fan
in a box
Member since Nov 2009
13023 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
No to much frickery going on


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50
johnnydrama
LSU Fan
Possibly Trashy
Member since Feb 2010
7999 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
A guy told me they've been smuggling in 2x4s hidden in cocaine.


Image: https://thumbs.gfycat.com/EnchantedShorttermAndeancat-small.gif



shoelessjoe
LSU Fan
Member since Jul 2006
7695 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
I’m thinking once demand halts it could really come down quick.


Allthatfades
Mississippi
Member since Aug 2014
3092 posts
 Online 

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
I’m hoping this fall-winter. It’s a slower building season anyway due to weather and hopefully a lot of people who are willing to build at these prices will have built. Demand should drop.
At least I’m hoping so.


bengalman
LSU Fan
In da Country
Member since Feb 2007
1759 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
In the same boat. Hoping to save "some"....


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Tridentds
Texas A&M Fan
Sugar Land
Member since Aug 2011
14416 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
Yes, prices are going to start coming down before end of year. Likely to plummet by end of year or in 2022. For some reason any mention of lumber prices falling brings the negative votes on this board. but it is going to happen.

From Bloomberg:

quote:

All told, we forecast that the price of U.S. lumber will plummet to $600 and $550 per 1,000 broad feet by end-2021 and end-2022,


I think lumber is currently around $1300 per 1000 board feet so a price drop of over 50% to 60% is coming. It's just pure economics and supply/demand. Lumber prices are high and the industry is responding on the supply side. Supply is going to overtake demand and prices will plummet. Took awhile to create a "shortage" and it is taking time to build a "surplus". Lumber prices will reset back to 2019 prices + inflation over the last 18 months.

You can take this to the bank. Anyone that tells you differently is an idiot.


hawgndodge
Chicago Cubs Fan
Member since Jun 2009
4244 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
quote:

I think lumber is currently around $1300 per 1000 board feet 


Try $1670


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Tridentds
Texas A&M Fan
Sugar Land
Member since Aug 2011
14416 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
quote:

Try $1670


Good lawd. Time to short lumber.


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120
armsdealer
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2016
2489 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
Nah, what we are seeing is the effects of increasing the money supply by 4 trillion dollars.


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415
GeauxldMember
LSU Fan
Black Pearl
Member since Nov 2003
3188 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
Rates are going to have an impact, so if we see a pretty good rate hike by year’s end, something will give.


SlidellCajun
LSU Fan
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
4593 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
quote:

Took awhile to create a "shortage" and it is taking time to build a "surplus". Lumber prices will reset back to 2019 prices + inflation over the last 18 months. You can take this to the bank. Anyone that tells you differently is an idiot


Bold statement

I’d say that if you don’t put your money where your mouth is, you could also be in the same boat as the folks you claim to be idiots...

So... you willing to make that bet?


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06
SlidellCajun
LSU Fan
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
4593 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
quote:

Rates are going to have an impact, so if we see a pretty good rate hike by year’s end, something will give.


I agree with this but the fed seems intent on keeping rates low

The market might force their hand though


bluedragon
Auburn Fan
Birmingham
Member since May 2020
2695 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
Lumber mills that were closed during the pandemic are starting to open back up ......

The owners of the mills realize an economic potential when they see one.


DumpsterFire
Arkansas Fan
Member since Sep 2012
1409 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
Mills that closed at the beginning of the pandemic have been open for nearly a year now. The only mills coming online now are new builds or renovations.


SlidellCajun
LSU Fan
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
4593 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
Gotta say, 6 months ago, I would have laughed at the thought of lumber more than doubling the price by May.

It’s gone from $650 to almost $1,700 per 1k board feet

Anyone considering building a new home should just say no out of protest


shoelessjoe
LSU Fan
Member since Jul 2006
7695 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
I agree, I never would have thought this is where prices would be right now. Just praying things go down to half of where it’s at by years end. At these prices, builders will be thinking twice.


Art Vandelay
LSU Fan
LOUISIANA
Member since Sep 2005
9090 posts

re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
I’m getting $65 a sheet 5/8 cdx. 10k to deck an average size house. Wow


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