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Started By
Message
re: Will lumber prices go down by years end?
Posted on 5/17/21 at 11:19 am to bbvdd
Posted on 5/17/21 at 11:19 am to bbvdd
quote:
Maybe if the fed would stop buying 20-30bn weekly in MBS and Treasuries.
Icymi, congress is looking to put the clamps down on the lumber shortage by lowering tariffs on Canadian lumber and maybe even looking into collusion amongst the US mills
This post was edited on 5/17/21 at 1:31 pm
2
Posted on 5/17/21 at 12:08 pm to SlidellCajun
Mills seem to be catching up. Biggest issue now is getting trucks.
Posted on 5/17/21 at 12:17 pm to shoelessjoe
I've put off all projects involving lumber until next year. Just don't see it getting back to 2019 levels in 2021. Too far to go. I think it'll start to slide a good bit, but still be cost prohibitive for most people.
We have a good friend that was under contract to build a house which they signed in early 2020. The builder just broke the contract because he was going to lose a ton of money at the agreed upon price. Our friends just filed a lawsuit. Apparently it is happening a lot right now, builders would rather take their chances in court than lose their arse on a home.
We have a good friend that was under contract to build a house which they signed in early 2020. The builder just broke the contract because he was going to lose a ton of money at the agreed upon price. Our friends just filed a lawsuit. Apparently it is happening a lot right now, builders would rather take their chances in court than lose their arse on a home.
Posted on 5/17/21 at 1:33 pm to SlidellCajun
Whoa
Price just tanked 15% today alone!
It was 1680 last week
Now down to 1350
Price just tanked 15% today alone!
It was 1680 last week
Now down to 1350
Posted on 5/17/21 at 1:44 pm to SlidellCajun
Thought it has done that a few times recently only to rebound.
Someone explained it as some sort of futures or delivery element.
Someone explained it as some sort of futures or delivery element.
Posted on 5/17/21 at 2:36 pm to CatfishJohn
Why has the work not begun if the contract was signed early 2020?
Posted on 5/17/21 at 3:01 pm to Art Vandelay
quote:
Why has the work not begun if the contract was signed early 2020?
Waiting on the city to do some infrastructure work and COVID delayed it, but they finished it in the Fall.
Development was supposed to start in the Fall, but the builder then kept saying they were waiting on this or that. Just stalling. Then bailed around New Years.
This post was edited on 5/17/21 at 3:02 pm
Posted on 5/17/21 at 9:00 pm to Art Vandelay
quote:
Mills seem to be catching up. Biggest issue now is getting trucks.
Tell that to thermatru
Posted on 5/17/21 at 9:03 pm to CatfishJohn
Seems like a crappy reason to sue someone. No one in their right mind could’ve predicted today’s market conditions. It’s not just the lumber either. Electrical wiring is low. Resins for plastics are low and seeing monster surcharges. So the plumbing would be insane.
I was talking to a home builder the other day and they’re going up every couple of weeks.
I was talking to a home builder the other day and they’re going up every couple of weeks.
Posted on 5/18/21 at 1:15 pm to Redfish2010
Lumber down another 5% today
Posted on 5/18/21 at 5:02 pm to SlidellCajun
I did read that suppliers won’t be looking at these futures prices for another 3-4 weeks because the cash price is what they go off of. But it is encouraging to see the prices finally dipping. Some are predicting that we may have seen the peak of the prices past us. Hoping this trend continues, plus the talk of tariff restrictions being lifted is some welcome news.
Posted on 5/18/21 at 6:47 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Whoa Price just tanked 15% today alone! It was 1680 last week Now down to 1350
quote:
Lumber down another 5% today
frick yes!!
Posted on 5/19/21 at 12:15 pm to jennyjones
Keep on dropping! Daddy needs a new house ??
Posted on 5/19/21 at 3:59 pm to tigerclaw10
Not today! Gained everything it lost yesterday. I will be so pissed if it climbs back where it was last week. There needs to be laws against the mills price gouging.
Posted on 5/19/21 at 4:34 pm to shoelessjoe
quote:
Not today! Gained everything it lost yesterday. I will be so pissed if it climbs back where it was last week. There needs to be laws against the mills price gouging.
Is there any evidence that the demand is just not there? Everything I see suggests off the chart demand still including daily posts of people with a backlog of projects waiting on prices to subside. (Which is just even more demand)
The whole thing is sort of a riff on the Yogi Berra "No one goes there it's too crowded."
I get it. I feel it. I built a shite-ton of fence in December/January ahead of a new pool. And I will build a pavilion to go with it, but lumber is too high so I'll wait.
Posted on 5/19/21 at 4:48 pm to RaginCajunz
quote:
I get it. I feel it. I built a shite-ton of fence in December/January ahead of a new pool. And I will build a pavilion to go with it, but lumber is too high so I'll wait.
About this time last year I was in the process of a cashout Refi, with the intent of doing a couple of large renovations at the house, and a few smaller updates/upgrades. A buddy of mine works for a fencing and building materials supplier, and was telling me back in July 2020 I should probably hold off on building the new covered and screened in deck. Prices were soaring due to the mills being shut down for Corona. I didn't listen to him, demo on the old deck started in mid to late August, and around the end of August they started the framing work, finishing up by mid to late September, and came back in October to stain everything. We have already had 8 months of use out of it, and had I waited, nothing would have gotten better, probably worse, as far as lumber prices.
I get it, the housing market has had a boom, and people are selling their homes and building new ones with the gains they have made. I might be tempted to do the same if I hadn't thrown a ton of money into our place.
Posted on 5/19/21 at 5:11 pm to TU Rob
quote:
About this time last year I was in the process of a cashout Refi, with the intent of doing a couple of large renovations at the house, and a few smaller updates/upgrades. A buddy of mine works for a fencing and building materials supplier, and was telling me back in July 2020 I should probably hold off on building the new covered and screened in deck. Prices were soaring due to the mills being shut down for Corona. I didn't listen to him, demo on the old deck started in mid to late August, and around the end of August they started the framing work, finishing up by mid to late September, and came back in October to stain everything. We have already had 8 months of use out of it, and had I waited, nothing would have gotten better, probably worse, as far as lumber prices.
We started a refi and remodel exactly this time last year and we went through hell with the bank. Missed the initial bump from the mills getting shut down in the summer and signed paperwork September 1. Prices had gone down and while we had a lot of extra expenditures, lumber didn’t kill us.
We moved back in right before the Freeze in February. We had a few things that needed to be fixed but I figured our contractor was flooded because of that so I reached out in March to get those addressed.
When the supervisor came in he said we were actually just talking about us the other day. He’d spent the last week calling all of his current jobs and telling them that it was going to be an additional $10-60k on all their jobs because of lumber and getting cussed out. We missed the bullet by about 3 weeks.
Only pain is that we created a new door to my backyard and I have some janky homemade steps (about a 3 foot drop from bottom of door to yard) there right now. Id love to fix it and put in a little terrace but eff that noise with current lumber.
Posted on 5/21/21 at 1:38 pm to 3nOut
We are starting to take it in the arse again. Prices continue to be ridiculous with no end in sight. Congress has been urging that Biden get involved. We know he ain’t going to do anything that is not told to him by his stooges.
Posted on 5/21/21 at 6:33 pm to shoelessjoe
Yeah the price is ticking back up.
It’s incredibly frustrating
I know for a fact that people are canceling new build homes in my area. There is a clear inflection point and 1400-1700 per thousand board feet is it.
I’ve put off my guest house hopes for good
It’s incredibly frustrating
I know for a fact that people are canceling new build homes in my area. There is a clear inflection point and 1400-1700 per thousand board feet is it.
I’ve put off my guest house hopes for good
Posted on 5/21/21 at 8:10 pm to SlidellCajun
I'm building right now and I just paid $87 for a 2x6x28. I needed 14 of them.
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