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Member since Nov 2006
311 posts

Young White Male Early Vote
I believe I have identified, through early voting analysis, that there is a huge surge in young single white males that did not vote in the last election and that this group could give Trump the win.

Here are some basic facts that need to be triangulated to come to my conclusion:
- Approx. 20% of early voters did not vote in 2016; they are net new, not just voting early instead of on election day
- Black vote is down slightly as a % of electorate
- Young vote is up slightly as %
- Single Male Vote is way up as a %
- Trump won 18-24 Yr old white males by 22%; Blacks and white females trended very strong Hillary creating the illusion that all young people vote left and high youth turnout is bad for Trump.

Using a democrat source for early voting stats, target smart, you can see shifts towards single voters over married, in what looks to be driven by younger voter turnout, but a much larger piece of which is single men. You can then switch over to race and education and see that white college educated voters are up.

Here is a link to NC EV info but click through other states to see this is a major trend across the country. I used NC because its a swing state that has a large black population. Do not use states like PA with only mail in early voting because Trump voters aren't doing that this year:
select NC as state and gender + marital status for demo

Link describing how young white males buck the trend of voting D:
Young white male politics

I believe the social equality narrative that has taken over corporate America and the media has made people realize this will limit their opportunities. I have personally stopped trying to get a VP role at my corporate job in the last year and am working on an exit strategy to start a business. I think older married white men already voted for Trump in 2016 and will vote for him again for a net gain of close to zero. I believe a lot of younger white men did not vote in 2016 and are coming out in large numbers to vote for Trump and will have a significant impact on the election.

Obviously, this phenomenon would be underweighted in the polling unless some pollster came to this conclusion as well(they have not).

This post was edited on 11/2 at 8:39 pm

Member since Oct 2009
19007 posts

re: Young White Male Early Vote
Raises hand.

This post was edited on 11/2 at 8:38 pm

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