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re: Air travel not expected to recover until 2024
Posted on 7/31/20 at 8:23 am to tduecen
Posted on 7/31/20 at 8:23 am to tduecen
quote:
if only ticket prices will decline, they seem to have increased though
I booked my back half trips when Southwest opened their schedule. I just rebooked those 3 trips and shaved like $700 off. Demand is still very soft.
Don't be surprised if ticket prices are elevated for a number of years once the public resumes travel though. They will not be back in the numbers we had in 2019 any time soon.
The flip side is we may see better service. Planes were full and people didn't care about service so we got less. A post pandemic market may promote the opposite.
1
Posted on 7/31/20 at 10:04 am to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
A post pandemic market may promote the opposite.
Could be the case, but I don’t anticipate that to be long-term. Planes more than likely will be full again as the opposite would have an adverse impact on their bottom line.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 11:38 am to usc6158
quote:
Domestic, maybe thanksgiving/christmas
quote:
Not a chance in hell
Yeah, I mean the airlines are all set to let go of half their workforces after Sept. 30. Even if demand picked back up, are there going to be enough pilots, mechanics, flight attendants, gate agents, and linemen to accommodate it? I think we are going to be feeling the effects of this for a while.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 2:11 pm to 632627
quote:
This might show businesses that Zoom is just as effective, or more cost effective, than face to face meetings. Thus, business travel may never recover to pre pandemic levels.
The longer this drags on and the more comfortable people and companies become with zoom etc the worse this is going to play out for the airlines and travel industry as a whole.
I normally take 2 international flights per week and obviously spend quite a bit of time in hotels and restaurants, I have had 3 trips in the last 5 months and have been busier than ever at a far lower overhead cost.
Neither myself, my employer, nor our customers will be returning to normal, it is simply more cost and time effective this way.
For the occasional traveler this will mean higher cost and less options going forward, business travel is what pays the bills for the airlines.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 7:35 pm to usc6158
quote:
You need in-person for some things, but in a lot of industries, companies are realizing it's a huge spend for minimal benefit other than in critical circumstances.
agreed 100%. I'm not sure how anyone can argue any differently.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 7:57 pm to cave canem
There probably won't ever be international travel like there was before. Some global carriers are going to have much smaller fleets, therefore airlines will be much more picky about the second and third tier markets. In other words, they simply won't have the aircraft available to restore what they had prior to Covid-19. Some people are having a difficult time with this. Thank China for it.
Posted on 8/2/20 at 2:05 am to Reservoir dawg
I appreciate your perspective, but people say this in a crisis. I remember when 9/11 was going to change everything.
Life largely just went back to normal.
Life largely just went back to normal.
Posted on 8/2/20 at 8:42 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
I remember when 9/11 was going to change everything.
Do you even DHS and Patriot act?
Our world and relationship with out government was fundamentally changed that day.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 12:13 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
I remember when 9/11 was going to change everything.
It changed plenty of things.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 10:10 am to Reservoir dawg
No, not really.
People had this attitude that we were going to be different. And we were, for a little while. You saw this unusual patriotism and a real sense of national unity.
But that faded within the first few years, and we went back to the status quo antebellum.
If the attacks did anything, they just accelerated the centralization of power in the US that we’ve seen over the last two centuries. But that’s a universal phenomenon in the west, and it’s something people have been writing about since Lord Acton’s time.
People had this attitude that we were going to be different. And we were, for a little while. You saw this unusual patriotism and a real sense of national unity.
But that faded within the first few years, and we went back to the status quo antebellum.
If the attacks did anything, they just accelerated the centralization of power in the US that we’ve seen over the last two centuries. But that’s a universal phenomenon in the west, and it’s something people have been writing about since Lord Acton’s time.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 11:27 am to Reservoir dawg
quote:
There probably won't ever be international travel like there was before.
Whew---that's a bit extreme. Will there be consolidation in the air travel industry? Yes, but you know, *new* carriers will come into being. Simply because an industry gets rearranged doesn't mean all demand will dry up forever. Especially if a vaccine is widely available before the end of 2021, you will see an explosion of leisure travel in 2022.
Business traveler, alas, is unlikely to rebound to the previous level. Pandemic/travel shutdowns just served to prove to reticent upper management that Zoom, Teams, etc are not feared by the under 50 workforce, or even seen by many as second rate. They're finally figuring out that people who essentially grew up online are perfectly fine with conducting business via the same pathways.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 2:32 pm to hungryone
quote:
Business traveler, alas, is unlikely to rebound to the previous level.
That’s going to be really bad news for hotels. Think about how many hotels house business travelers Monday through Thursday.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 4:05 pm to hungryone
quote:
Business traveler, alas, is unlikely to rebound to the previous level. Pandemic/travel shutdowns just served to prove to reticent upper management that Zoom, Teams, etc are not feared by the under 50 workforce, or even seen by many as second rate. They're finally figuring out that people who essentially grew up online are perfectly fine with conducting business via the same pathways.
That's right and business travel is what makes money for airlines, and I agree, new carriers will come, and new carriers will fold. You won't see pre-covid levels before another catastrophe rearanges the industry again. It doesn't have to be as severe as a pandemic either. If crude ever sustains a long period of highly inflated prices again, there will be bankruptcies, mergers and liquidations with leisure airlines being especially vulnerable.
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