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re: do you know anyone who legitimately makes a living sports betting?
Posted on 1/14/20 at 10:01 pm to ZIGG
Posted on 1/14/20 at 10:01 pm to ZIGG
I'm starting my 3rd year now. Made $46K last year, which is about what I was making in corporate Accounting. I probably "work" about 60 hours a week, but it doesn't feel like work. It's definitely not a glamorous or lucrative profession.
This.
quote:
I think to really be good at it and make a living, you have to have a dispassionate relationship with sports, which means you can't really be a fan.
This.
2
Posted on 1/14/20 at 10:34 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
If you have a really, really good system you'll win about 60% long term. After the vig you're left with about an 8% return.
If you can consistently hit 60% long term, you would be rich. 8% of what? A million dollars?
If I knew I could hit 60% I would bet over my head on every single play. I would have nothing to worry about because I won't lose. You could martingale it and be a millionaire in a very short time.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 11:10 pm to bayoucracka
give us your bets sometime dude. I'm always out giving my picks to the fans and I was bread szn all yr for cfb.
only lost one bread szn game all year.
only lost one bread szn game all year.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 12:06 am to Mr Perfect
quote:
give us your bets sometime dude.
Most of what I make is from props, futures, and smaller leagues/markets, but I’ll try to post my plays for CFB next year. It’s more about numbers than picking winners though.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 12:21 am to bayoucracka
ok thx. I'll tag you next yr for a reminder
Posted on 1/15/20 at 12:28 am to bayoucracka
46k untaxed is probably a decent living in Vegas. 1000-1500 a month can get you a nice little condo in Summerlin. The cost of living out there is absurdly cheap compared to what most people would probably think.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 1:25 am to Tunica
Yeah our house note is $900, although we bought in 2009 near the bottom of the crash. It's definitely cheap compared to most big cities... plus there's no state income tax. And Nevada is like the opposite of Louisiana when it comes to public works.
But I'll tell you what, if I was in my 20's, I would strongly consider moving to the Jersey area. Their sportsbook options are way better than these archaic Vegas books. Most of what I make comes from offshore books, but that would probably change if I was on the east coast.
But I'll tell you what, if I was in my 20's, I would strongly consider moving to the Jersey area. Their sportsbook options are way better than these archaic Vegas books. Most of what I make comes from offshore books, but that would probably change if I was on the east coast.
This post was edited on 1/15/20 at 1:28 am
Posted on 1/15/20 at 2:30 am to ZIGG
I knew one guy but he quit last year when he had his first child, he made decent enough money but didn’t want that risk of going boom now he has a kid.
He had 66U (wouldn’t tell me how much 1U was) on a 25/1 horse racing future that he put on with the idea of laying it off. Got closer and closer and the horse went off odds on and romped home.
It gets harder and harder with bookies putting restrictions online and then having to go round to different shops constantly to avoid being restricted/banned.
He never revealed how much he won on it but a) I don’t imagine he bets in €10’increments and b)the pressure of the job hunt must have subsided a bit!
Still bets here and there now but nowhere near the same level
He had 66U (wouldn’t tell me how much 1U was) on a 25/1 horse racing future that he put on with the idea of laying it off. Got closer and closer and the horse went off odds on and romped home.
It gets harder and harder with bookies putting restrictions online and then having to go round to different shops constantly to avoid being restricted/banned.
He never revealed how much he won on it but a) I don’t imagine he bets in €10’increments and b)the pressure of the job hunt must have subsided a bit!
Still bets here and there now but nowhere near the same level
Posted on 1/15/20 at 7:16 am to Double Oh
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/13/21 at 10:05 am
Posted on 1/15/20 at 7:24 am to ZIGG
I know a few people who make tens of thousands a year betting. It's their full time job though. Hours a day digging through foreign lower league teams Twitters in their native language trying to find an edge. You don't make a living betting on NFL, NBA, Premier League, etc. It's all correctly priced. These guys dig up info that the bookie hopefully hasn't found yet, develop advanced statistical models, and sometimes lose their arse short term anyway.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 7:47 am to ZIGG
One of my best friends in high school and a kid I picked up everyday to take to school is the 2nd or 3rd highest earner in Florida poker history. He now lives in Vegas and has a house in Jacksonville as well. Multi millionaire. Name is Sean Winter.
We used to skip school and play on full tilt, we were 16 and using his brothers social so we could play. We would have 4-6 people in a 20 man tourney and all be on windows messenger telling each other what cards we had. Made a couple grand then I stopped but he kept going. He bets sports all the time as well.
We used to skip school and play on full tilt, we were 16 and using his brothers social so we could play. We would have 4-6 people in a 20 man tourney and all be on windows messenger telling each other what cards we had. Made a couple grand then I stopped but he kept going. He bets sports all the time as well.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 8:00 am to ZIGG
People should be able to win sports betting, and bookmakers should be out of business. In sports, you can flip a coin and hit 50%. All you have to do is better than 52.5% and you beat The Vig. The human mind should be able to do that. The extraordinary human mind should be able to crush. But gambling instincts take over, and most human gambling instincts are destructive. And there are enough and boys betting to Feed the bug makers. And for those who are doing, the bookmakers limit or completely blackball.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 3:05 pm to Overbrook
quote:
the bookmakers limit or completely blackball.
Yeah it's probably the only line of work where you are penalized for being successful.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 3:09 pm to bayoucracka
quote:
But I'll tell you what, if I was in my 20's, I would strongly consider moving to the Jersey area. Their sportsbook options are way better than these archaic Vegas books. Most of what I make comes from offshore books, but that would probably change if I was on the east coast.
Wow, that's strange to me since I would think it's the same mega-corporations running the books -- unless you get cool options in the places like the native american casinos. We're supposed to be up and running in Michigan soon.
ETA:
quote:
Scientific Games Chosen by FireKeepers Casino Hotel to Power Tribal Sports Betting and iGaming in Michigan
Scientific Games Corporation (NASDAQ: SGMS) ("Scientific Games" or the "Company") has been chosen by FireKeepers Casino Hotel in Battle Creek, MI to provide sports betting and iGaming to players in Michigan, following the recent passage of a bill legalizing sports and online casino betting in the state. Scientific Games will launch retail sports betting at FireKeepers Casino Battle Creek as well as online sports betting and iGaming across the entire state of Michigan once regulations allow.
FireKeepers Casino will benefit from OpenSports™, a reliable modular sportsbook solution that empowers operators to choose the technologies and services that best benefit their business. The launch in Michigan will include end-to-end retail sports betting solutions and a comprehensive data feed from Don Best Sports, Scientific Games' leading managed trading service. In addition, FireKeepers will receive world class iGaming content via Scientific Games' OpenGaming™ content aggregation platform. Once approved by state and tribal regulators, the Company's portfolio of U.S.-available slot games will launch online for players across the state.
LINK
This post was edited on 1/15/20 at 3:14 pm
Posted on 1/15/20 at 3:11 pm to Overbrook
good post dude. this is why you need to take emotion out of gambling.. few ppl can separate emotions from facts. once i unplugged from everything my life got 100 better.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 3:38 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
I would think it's the same mega-corporations running the books
Have you seen the websites for books like FanDuel, DraftKings, and PointsBet? Those aren't even allowed in Vegas. We finally have apps, but we're only a couple years removed from having to physically place bets at casinos. The only thing Vegas is good for now is taking huge bets on the bigger leagues, but Jersey is quickly catching up in that regard too.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 9:20 pm to ColoradoAg03
quote:Despite never betting on a sporting event, I’m pretty confident that he is lying to you, whether it’s how much he is actually betting, how much he is winning, and/or whether he is making a living off of that.
Yup, he put $14k on Clemson +5 yesterday for shits and giggles, because that's peanuts for him. Overall he was exposed around $110k this weekend and cleaned up.
I mean I can’t imagine how much I would have to make where $14,000 is considered “peanuts,” (even a $1,000,000 annually probably wouldn’t be enough personally), let alone someone disciplined enough to make that much from sports betting.
And I would need to be betting a lot more than $110,000 in a week, like 5 times that amount, to not care about $14,000.
Posted on 1/15/20 at 9:38 pm to Overbrook
quote:Just look at the success rates of the various models on The Prediction Tracker. The very best models in CBB and NBA only have a 53% success rate, and while the best models in the NFL (58%) and CFB (56%) are more accurate, the majority are below the 52.38% break even success rate, and there are fewer games to bet on in sports anyways.
People should be able to win sports betting, and bookmakers should be out of business. In sports, you can flip a coin and hit 50%. All you have to do is better than 52.5% and you beat The Vig. The human mind should be able to do that.
Realistically, a 7% profit margin (about 56%) would be pretty impressive even for someone who is very systematic and disciplined. So beating the VIG is not near as easy as your post implies, especially since most people can’t disregard the emotional aspect of gambling, which are an inherent biological aspect (dopamine, adrenaline, etc.).
And finally, I don’t know why you think “bookmakers” should be out of business since (a) the vig is set to make a profit and they would adjust it if they weren’t making one and (b) they move the lines accordingly to ensure they get that profit.
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