re: Geno Smith just got a 3yr/$105 Million from the Seahawks

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, Eli said "No, I plan to retire in a couple years" and ate the frick out of their cap his last few years.

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Yeah a career-ending injury or retirement we didn't expect will blow this whole cap shuffle up.

That's the problem with uncuttable contracts. All you can do is kick the can but that requires them to stay on your team for years. So guys not living up to their contract (Hill, Peat, soon to be AK, Cam, etc.) or guys who have to leave abruptly will prevent that can kicking.

We were on thin ice before Carr but we have no room now with Carr. Any little issue is a domino that can unravel our entire salary cap.

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A lot of us just think we'll see only marginal improvement at the expense of the future of our program.

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Basically

Losing Davenport and Onyamata will also affect our strength in a way many aren't realizing.

We basically traded Marcus Williams, Davenport, and Onyamata for Carr

I think we have both said similar things. This improves our team (unless Carr gets injured), but only a little and we're still in the mediocre tier..just cloesr to the top. Most sunshine pumpers aren't even talking about how good our team is and are talking about how bad the NFC South is.

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SlowFlowPro knows how the season will not only play out next year

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wut

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but that our future is completely shot by paying market rate for a QB.

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With our cap situation? Yes.

His contract isn't bad, objectively. It's terrible for us in 2023 based on the past 5 years of our cap moves.

Then we wait until we restructure him a year from now and kick tens of millions of future dead money in addition to our tens of millions of future dead money.

We're on pace to have 30-40% of our cap in 2025 eaten up by dead cap. 2024 is already at like 20-25% or something (with a few assumptions we all agree with like not re-working MT's deal, post-June 1 cuts for Jameis, etc.)

100% agree. Nick Underhill last night was saying there's a bunch of dumb people talking about the salary cap like it really matters

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I think a very, VERY small % of people think we will fail in 2023 The larger population is worried about our future

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I think this is true for you and St Aug. But for all of the others coming out of the woodwork I’ve never seen post before, I don’t believe that to be true.

I’m not discrediting those who are worried for our future but guys like Underhill, Tripp, Holder and KT don’t seem to be nearly as worried about the cap as others. But Underhill in particular is a sunshine pumper

From another post I made:

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We are already $84M over the estimated 2024 cap (per Sportstrac) with all of the restructuring.

Looks like Jameis (assuming post June 1 cut) is 8.4M in dead money. Michael Thomas will be 14M in dead money (per Sportrac) almost guaranteed. That's about 10% of our 2024 cap gone with those 2.

Then you have Cam Jordan (when he's not under contract) eating up another $12.7M of the cap. Now you're up to $35.3M in dead money.

If we cut Peat this year and designate it as a post June 1 cut, that adds about $10M in dead money to 2024.

Then we'd be up to about $45M in dead money for 2024. That's over 20% of our cap

I don't see any other potential cut options, based on all the restructures we did recently.

Every year that dead cap % keeps climbing, and we haven't addressed the difficult contracts (Taysom Hill, now Mathieu, etc.).

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All the restructures we did this past week are shifting the potential dead money to 2025.

Look at how much of 2024 is already eaten up BEFORE we deal with Peat

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Right now we have $7M in dead cap according to Underhill.

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Yeah because we're extending guys and restructuring deals instead of cutting them, pushing the dead cap hits down the road to 2024 and 2025

Literally what I am saying.

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Most sunshine pumpers aren't even talking about how good our team is and are talking about how bad the NFC South is.

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I mean, because of much of a bloodbath the NFC West and East will be, the division winners of both could be in the 10-11 win category. Vikings and Lions could be battling for that and be at 10-11 wins as well. With how easy our schedule is alongside the NFC South, there’s scenarios where we could end up in a top 2 seed. Is it likely? No. But I don’t think we’ll be the worst playoff team that makes it, either.

Then once you’re in, you could end up like Philly and end up playing a Daniel Jones/Geno Smith in the divisional and then maybe Jimmy G or Dak or Stafford or hell, even worse in the NFCCG. I’d much rather take those odds than have to play a Lamar/Herbert in the divisional and an Allen/Mahomes in the AFC.

Again, it’s not likely and will depend on how well Carmichael does if we get Thomas back + another WR and RB in the draft as well as some D-Linemen but you can’t tell me you don’t think, if we have a good draft, bring guys like Onyemata back and have a good D again, that you wouldn’t like us in most playoff matchups outside of the Niners and Eagles, which history has shown us will take steps back