quote:
There will be a hell of a lot of pressure to bring it back down. The cost of carry on our $30 Trillion debt is significant enough at low rates. But at historical norms of 5-6%, "interest on the debt" will sky to $1.4-$1.5 Tn/yr. $1.4Tn is about 2X the Defense Budget, and approaches total US income tax revenue.

To what end?

Unless we become well acquainted with the term “Austerity” and the U.S. government really attacks debt from both sides, lowering rates back down will only serve to make it even worse in the end.

We also need to really dig see and work on investing in manufacturing in this country as well to bolster exports on our trade sheet.

We need to *make* more shite in THIS country.

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Posted by mortgagemanlc

Member since Jul 2020

53 posts

Posted on 7/1/22 at 6:43 pm to GeismarGeauxer

You’ll see mid 4’a possibly by the end of the year. We are seeing 4.75% right now in govie loans. I doubt they get lower than mid 4’s for a long time and that’s probably a good thing.

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Posted by LSU1018

Baton Rouge

Member since Feb 2007

7215 posts

Posted on 7/2/22 at 11:21 am to mortgagemanlc

I think we see 4-5% next year. I don’t think we ever see 3% again.

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Posted by tigerfive

Member since Nov 2020

489 posts

Posted on 7/3/22 at 1:16 am to wutangfinancial

I bought my first home about 10 years ago at 4.75% and it went up in value while rates went down enough to refi 18 months later to 4.125% and pull 50k cash out to pay my parents back for their down payment loan. I refi'd several times since. Bought points to go down to a 3.5% on a 20 year loan (stupid Dave Ramsey), and then last year, refi'd no points no cost loan at 2.5% on a 10/6 ARM and pulled out another 100k, invested that in multi family syndication. I've never held the same mortgage for more than 4 years but I might keep this one for awhile. I bought an investment house to rehab and hold mostly using hard money, in May this year, and my original estimated rate for the conventional refi after I fixed all the things was 5.25%. One month later,I feel lucky to lock at 6.625% but the rates jacked my cash flow numbers and I'm considering flipping it.

This post was edited on 7/3/22 at 1:19 am

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