re: May 4th Severe Weather Threat Thread (Flash Flood Emergency - Birmingham & Hoover, Ala.)

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yeah - i think we have the chance for borderline historic flooding when the main line gets here. the grounds here are very saturated - gonna be a lot of trees/lines down tonight

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The one good thing is instability is going to be very limited over Birmingham tonight because of all the rain today and eventual lack of daytime heating. Surface based convection already appears to be shut down, the sounding from Birmingham tonight should confirm. That doesn't help with the frontal based rain though. That's not going to get cleared out until the line moves through.

The pine belt in southern Mississippi looks primed to take a punch as the line progresses. Current obs show party cloudy skies with temps getting into the 80s and juicy 70+ dews. Shear isn't rocking that hard, but will have stronger winds from aloft to pull down the farther north toward I20 you go.

Northshore too has this high CAPE brewing, but a little cloudier and farther from the upper disturbance should make the severe impacts a little less widespread I'd think.