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re: Analysis of Polls vs. Actual Results

Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:48 am to
Posted by RICHIE APRILE
Essex County, NJ
Member since Aug 2020
791 posts
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:48 am to
quote:

according to polls, the errors that were made in 2016 have been corrected



No they haven't. The People's Pundit guy said that the polls are actively trying to factor in mail in voting so their likely voter screens, if they are using them at all, are way too generous. Some polls are still using registered voters because they think mail in voting will mean there is no point in using likely voter screens since every registered voter will be able to vote.

I got polled yesterday for the first time. From Public Policy Polling, a known democrat affiliated pollster. They asked me who I planned on voting for in the first question, then asked me a bunch of leading questions that had to do with the supreme court (i.e "If you knew that your choice for President would appoint a supreme court justice who would take away a woman's right to choose, would it make you more likely or less likely to vote for them?") and then the final question was asking me again who I planned on voting for.

I bet they used the results of the 2nd time they asked the question for their topline after asking a bunch of leading questions.
Posted by anc
Member since Nov 2012
18518 posts
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:52 am to
quote:

(i.e "If you knew that your choice for President would appoint a supreme court justice who would take away a woman's right to choose, would it make you more likely or less likely to vote for them?")


That is a horrible polling question. Any student who has taken my polling analytics class would have failed for this. Its literally the first point my textbook makes!!!!!!!



Really strange that I am working on a lecture on this. Thanks for the heads up!
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