Analysis of Polls vs. Actual Results

So I went back and looked at the final RCP average battleground state polls from 2016 and compared them to the actual results to see if I could find a "Hidden Trump Voter" factor to apply to this year's polls.

Pennsylvania was where the polls were way off. Clinton was +6.2 on Election Day. Trump won by 0.7 (? 6.9)
Florida was 0.0, Trump won by 1.2 (? 1.2)
Wisconsin was Clinton 4.0, Trump won 0.7 (? 4.7)
Michigan was Clinton 5.2, Trump won 0.3 (? 5.5)
North Carolina was Trump 1.7, Trump won by 3.7 (? 2.0)

In these five states, the ? from poll result to actual results averaged 4.09 in favor of Trump.

This year, these states' polls look like this.

PA - Biden 4.0
FL - Biden 1.6
WI - Biden 6.7
MI - Biden 4.8
NC - Biden 0.9

If you apply the mean ? to these five states, then Trump would win FL, PA and NC, which would leave him one state short of winning. I believe that this is how the Democrats are interpreting the polls.

I believe the better format is apply the median ? of 4.7, which would give Trump PA and make Michigan a statistical tie.

In short, add between 4.09 and 4.7 to Trump's numbers in any battleground state poll to see what the 2016 electorate applied would look like.

I also do not believe that Democrats will come out like they did for Hillary. I believe that there were 3.8 million women who voted for Hillary only because she could have made history as the first woman president. Some will come with Kamala on the ticket, but not as many. This is what is putting states like Minnesota in play. Lots of feminists in Minnesota who aren't excited about voting for an old white man.


Edit: The ? above is supposed to be the symbol for Delta. Unicode not allowed on TD.