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Started By
Message
Fannie Mae - good buy?
Posted on 7/10/08 at 11:56 am
Posted on 7/10/08 at 11:56 am
Trading at $13.61 right now. They pay $1.40 per share in dividends, and have a price to book of 0.4x. Wouldn't that mean that 60% of their loans would have to be bad for it to even get to a 1x price to book ratio?
Lowest price since 1992. I know they're in bad shape, but they're priced for bad shape and could they really go that much lower?
Good time to buy? I already have some FMN, lucky me. I was thinking of selling some of my entergy (ETR) stock and buying FNM with it. I bought it at 80 a couple years ago, it shot up to 120 pretty quickly, but hasn't done much since then. And hurricane season is coming.
Lowest price since 1992. I know they're in bad shape, but they're priced for bad shape and could they really go that much lower?
Good time to buy? I already have some FMN, lucky me. I was thinking of selling some of my entergy (ETR) stock and buying FNM with it. I bought it at 80 a couple years ago, it shot up to 120 pretty quickly, but hasn't done much since then. And hurricane season is coming.
This post was edited on 7/10/08 at 11:58 am
5
Posted on 7/10/08 at 11:58 am to BillyCannonFan
I'll sell it to you.
Posted on 7/10/08 at 11:59 am to BillyCannonFan
hell no
Posted on 7/10/08 at 12:29 pm to Colonel Hapablap
When do you think it will bottom and how low do you think it will go?
What would you pay for it right now? It actually dipped just below $12 for a moment earlier today. Now the volume is dying off and its stabilizing at about 13.5.
What would you pay for it right now? It actually dipped just below $12 for a moment earlier today. Now the volume is dying off and its stabilizing at about 13.5.
This post was edited on 7/10/08 at 12:33 pm
Posted on 7/10/08 at 12:32 pm to BillyCannonFan
quote:
When do you think it will bottom
6 months to 5 years
quote:
how low do you think it will go?
zero.
Posted on 7/10/08 at 12:34 pm to Colonel Hapablap
zero ? 
Certainly at least SOME of their mortgages are good, right?
And don't they have an advantage as a GSE?
Certainly at least SOME of their mortgages are good, right?
And don't they have an advantage as a GSE?
Posted on 7/10/08 at 12:38 pm to BillyCannonFan
quote:
Certainly at least SOME of their mortgages are good, right?
sure, but fannie and freddie are levered big-time. Enough that the 20% of mortgages that will go bad is more than enough to sink them.
Posted on 7/10/08 at 1:50 pm to Colonel Hapablap
Easily could see the stock at $0, would not touch it. You can't accurately predict FMV of the company at all with any degree of certainty, why risk your $$$?
Posted on 7/10/08 at 2:46 pm to BillyCannonFan
Fannie Mae is insolvent!!
Posted on 7/21/08 at 9:08 am to Great Hills Golfer
FNM
LAST TRADE: $17.23 at 10:02 EST
I bought in at $13.10 when you were all telling me not to touch it. Now yeah, I know, I missed a HUGE part of the bottom by not waiting a few days - but hey, 32% gains aren't bad, are they?
Posted on 7/21/08 at 9:09 am to BillyCannonFan
take the money and run. Seriously. and congratulations.
Posted on 7/21/08 at 9:11 am to Great Hills Golfer
(oops double post)
This post was edited on 7/21/08 at 9:14 am
Posted on 7/21/08 at 9:17 am to Colonel Hapablap
quote:
take the money and run. Seriously. and congratulations.
I'm waiting for it to hit 20.
Not only do I have the gains off of FNM, but to finance the purchase I sold some of my entergy, when it was at $121.50. Now its at $111.00
I'm just a bit overly excited, I usually buy and hold stock. In fact, ETR was the first time I actually sold any shares in years. The excitement was made even more ridiculous by the horrible, horrible, horrible way I felt about the whole thing last week! I almost gave up and sold at at 8 bucks a share, but I figured, hey, if FNM is really THAT fricked, then the ENTIRE economy is fricked so we're ALL fricked.
Posted on 7/21/08 at 9:26 am to BillyCannonFan
quote:
I'm waiting for it to hit 20.
sell half now and sell half at 20. FNM will eventually go to zero, if there is any justice in the universe.
Posted on 7/21/08 at 10:16 am to MileHigh
never trade on the expectation of justice.
Posted on 7/21/08 at 10:30 am to MileHigh
quote:
sell half now and sell half at 20. FNM will eventually go to zero, if there is any justice in the universe.
Should have sold when the Colonel told me to take the money and run! Its at 15.63 as of last trade!
Oh well, still much more in the black than I thought I would be at this time last week!
About 1/4 of the stock I have in FNM was actually bought over a year ago (at a price I'm not even going to mention) - so I could sell those and take a capital loss while locking in a bit of the profit I just made off the rest of it, deferring the taxes.
I'm thinking the reason the stock has been trading lower and lower as the day progresses (it was at 18.48 at one point very early in the day and has been dropping since) is because all the folks who bought in at 7,8,9,10 bucks are taking their profits now. And who wouldn't? It will go higher in the next few weeks.
Is FIFO the rule when it comes to capital gains, or is that just the default assumption? Can I specify which lots of a position to sell? How do I do that?
\
This post was edited on 7/21/08 at 10:34 am
Posted on 7/21/08 at 11:26 am to BillyCannonFan
15.03 now at last trade.
Damn, this stock is making my dizzy.
Damn, this stock is making my dizzy.
Posted on 7/21/08 at 8:36 pm to BillyCannonFan
not yet...
Posted on 7/22/08 at 8:59 am to BillyCannonFan
Last Trade 12.70 at 8:58 central time... Wow. Down nearly 6 bucks in a 24 hour period!
Excuse me for a second....
Last Trade 12.70 at 8:58 central time... Wow. Down nearly 6 bucks in a 24 hour period!
Excuse me for a second....
:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
OK, I'm all better now.
:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
OK, I'll all better now.
Excuse me for a second....
Last Trade 12.70 at 8:58 central time... Wow. Down nearly 6 bucks in a 24 hour period!
Excuse me for a second....
:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: OK, I'm all better now.
:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
OK, I'll all better now.
This post was edited on 7/22/08 at 9:00 am
Posted on 7/22/08 at 12:24 pm to MileHigh
quote:
sell half now and sell half at 20
+1 .. an underutilized strategy. Also can buy a portion at one price with another order for the balance of the purchase at a lower price. If it nevers go down, I'm happy. If it does go down, I average in at the lower price.
I know. I have a keen grasp for the obvious.
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