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Message
re: Lets talk about the housing bubble
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:23 am to GoCrazyAuburn
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:23 am to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
Probably why I'm not buying a house right now. Options are pretty shitty and way overpriced for what I'd be getting.
Even in parts of rural Alabama, it's getting absurd. Land that used to cost 1500-2500 an acre has now risen to 12-15k, but that's likely due to speculation for commercial and industrial growth in the area instead of housing demand. I know my old man's old man made out like a bandit on some shitty old cotton fields near Huntsville.
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:23 am to cokebottleag
I'm curious if the gentrification and repopulation of cities that's happening nationwide contributes to that cost differential.
City dirt is more expensive than suburb dirt.
City dirt is more expensive than suburb dirt.
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:24 am to cokebottleag
i think the housing market in certain states including Texas and Louisiana are due for a market correction. The baton rouge and DFW areas in particular. Baton Rouge will cool off this year when inventory rises . I am just happy i bought 10yrs ago before things got out of control.
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:24 am to cokebottleag
Not sure we are still in a bubble. Think the bubble really broke with the mortgage crisis in 2008-2009. I will say that housing prices haven't risen that much in the last 6-8 years. Some of the prices are pretty flat for homes that are 10-15 years old.
Maybe there is a bubble right now in a lot of areas. In Houston there does not seem to be one. Not saying there isn't but wife is in real estate with Gary Greene so I hear about days on market, price trends, new home incentives, etc...
Maybe there is a bubble right now in a lot of areas. In Houston there does not seem to be one. Not saying there isn't but wife is in real estate with Gary Greene so I hear about days on market, price trends, new home incentives, etc...
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:25 am to cajunangelle
And when interest rates go back to historically normal levels like 6-7% they will go back down in general.
I lost money on my first house after 7 years even before realtor fees and it was new construction. The benefit of a house is you have control over your own property and it will likely appreciate over the long term. The downside is they are hard to unload at times and can be expensive as they age.
I lost money on my first house after 7 years even before realtor fees and it was new construction. The benefit of a house is you have control over your own property and it will likely appreciate over the long term. The downside is they are hard to unload at times and can be expensive as they age.
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:25 am to Turbeauxdog
There's a real problem with supply in a lot of cities because of NIMBYs who shite a brick at anything bigger than two stories, or any kind of apartments other than luxury condos
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:25 am to fallguy_1978
quote:they are a hell of a lot better investment than paying more in rent for the same or inferior lodgings. It's more like recouping an expense than an investment. My house payment is like 1/3 of what it would cost me to rent the same house, and I build equity. You gotta have a roof over your head, might as well increase your ownership of it over time
I agree that they aren't the long term investment people think they are unless you just happen to buy low in a really hot market.
This post was edited on 3/1/18 at 11:27 am
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:26 am to HempHead
quote:
Even in parts of rural Alabama, it's getting absurd. Land that used to cost 1500-2500 an acre has now risen to 12-15k, but that's likely due to speculation for commercial and industrial growth in the area instead of housing demand. I know my old man's old man made out like a bandit on some shitty old cotton fields near Huntsville.
Yep. I'm in Bham and it is crazy. Apartments have stepped their game up big time too. It is almost impossible to find a decent house under 350-400 right now. I'm not talking big, just a house that doesn't need a ton of work done to it.
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:26 am to GoCrazyAuburn
It also depends on where you live.
I got essentially a brand new 2600 sft house (complete gut job...all electrical, plumbing, etc) five minutes from downtown Columbia in a nice area for 300k.
I got essentially a brand new 2600 sft house (complete gut job...all electrical, plumbing, etc) five minutes from downtown Columbia in a nice area for 300k.
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:26 am to Iosh
quote:
There's a real problem with supply in a lot of cities because of NIMBYs who shite a brick at anything bigger than two stories, or any kind of apartments other than luxury condos
God forbid we allow multiple occupancy rooms of non-relatives.
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:27 am to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
Probably why I'm not buying a house right now. Options are pretty shitty and way overpriced for what I'd be getting.
My wife and I are having our mind blown right now looking to move across town.
Houston isn't like other cities; there is no zoning that prevents low cost apartment complexes or high density residential. There are no natural barriers in any direction for basically 100s of miles. There isn't even an issue as much with distance, since the city has 4-6 commercial centers, not just Downtown.
Yet a planned community will spring up in the middle of a giant field, not so much as a gas station within 10 miles, and the baseline price is $550,000, when 15 miles north in Cypress, SAME SCHOOL DISTRICT, actual accessible commercial areas, and low crime, the same house 10 years older is $200,000. IT MAKES NO SENSE. And there is nothing stopping another developer from building another set of houses across the highway for a lower price.
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:28 am to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
Yep. I'm in Bham and it is crazy. Apartments have stepped their game up big time too. It is almost impossible to find a decent house under 350-400 right now. I'm not talking big, just a house that doesn't need a ton of work done to it.
I was looking at buying a place in Crestline or Highland Park, and noped the frick out when I saw the condition of houses relative to their price. Who the frick is buying a dilapidated 2700sqft house for 450k?
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:29 am to Tridentds
quote:
Not sure we are still in a bubble. Think the bubble really broke with the mortgage crisis in 2008-2009. I will say that housing prices haven't risen that much in the last 6-8 years. Some of the prices are pretty flat for homes that are 10-15 years old.
The bubble in 2008 was a financial bubble caused by bad loan practices and fraudulent management of mortgage bonds, not related to low interest rates.
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:31 am to HempHead
quote:
I was looking at buying a place in Crestline or Highland Park, and noped the frick out when I saw the condition of houses relative to their price. Who the frick is buying a dilapidated 2700sqft house for 450k?
Houston is fricking chock full of houses that were flooded during Harvey, gutted, and then just placed on the market without being renovated. The prices are insane; essentially just $50k or a little more reduced.
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:31 am to cokebottleag
Key is getting a fixed rate on a home that you can be in for the foreseeable future in as good a neighborhood as you can find. Given those, you can almost certainly ride out another bubble bursting. If you are in an elite zip code, odds are it wouldn't be as affected by the bubble either.
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:32 am to HempHead
quote:
I was looking at buying a place in Crestline or Highland Park, and noped the frick out when I saw the condition of houses relative to their price. Who the frick is buying a dilapidated 2700sqft house for 450k?
Same. Was looking in the Crestline Park/Highland Park/Homewood areas. It is ridiculous. I'm single so I don't need a ton of space. Just me and the GF. Looked at Tapestry park apartments the other day. They are nice as hell with a ton of amenities. Until prices become more reasonable, I just don't see the value in buying right now when you can get a completely new apartment and probably pay less for it. (short term, I know the value of a house long term vs apartment).
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:34 am to cokebottleag
If any of you baws are real ballers, I would be buying the shite out of destroyed property in St. Thomas and St. John, USVI. The potential for a 10-15 year gain is insane if you have the money to throw at new construction and wait.
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:36 am to cokebottleag
quote:
the housing market will be a casualty.
Something is always a casualty when trying to fix a problem (real or perceived).
I would think that the historical avg of 9% is way too high for something that is fixed in place (discounting trailers, ).
4% is too low also, so I think we will settle into the 5.5 to 6% range.
Posted on 3/1/18 at 11:36 am to HempHead
quote:
I know my old man's old man made out like a bandit on some shitty old cotton fields near Huntsville.
I was on zillow yesterday for shits and giggles looking at housing prices in Huntsville since I may end up moving back there down the road because of the large amount of cybersecurity jobs.
Holy shite it's even getting stupid there
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