quote:
Is that really a big swath of 150 kJ/sqcm? FUUUUCK. That's a shitload of energy available. No shear and we get to test the theoretical limits of hurricane strength in our basin. That's the sort of potential we all want to see.

But no shear at this time of year is rare, especially as you go further West into the Gulf. It is rare that fronts have not come through by October. So any storm moving north towards the coast will probably run into shear and major dry air.

This post was edited on 9/28/17 at 2:51 pm

2 Jump to Post ...

Report Post Jump to Post

Posted by MottLaneKid

Gonzales

Member since Apr 2012

4543 posts

Posted on 9/28/17 at 3:01 pm to BigB0882

Dry air would almost be a certainty in October as a potential TC approaches the northern Gulf coast.

The outer circulation would act like a mid-latitude cyclone.

0 Jump to Post ...

Report Post Jump to Post

Posted by Duke

Twin Lakes, CO

Member since Jan 2008

36225 posts

Posted on 9/28/17 at 3:01 pm to BigB0882

quote:
But no shear at this time of year is rare

Certainly. That's why I noted no shear being necessary for the rest of my fear mongering.

quote:
So any storm moving north towards the coast will probably run into shear and major dry air.

Oh yeah. Looking for the specifics to become more in focus, but I expect the gulf to be pretty hostile to any system this time of year until I see otherwise. Furthermore, with the fronts swinging down you'd expect most systems that would end up in the gulf get the boot toward Florida.

These later season storms have been known to be a nightmare for central America if they don't catch a slap out NE as the water down in the W Caribbean is always quite warm and deep.

1 Jump to Post ...

Report Post Jump to Post

O-T Lounge - Replies to Post

Return To Board

Page 1

Return To Board