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re: Can we admit what polling has become?
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:47 pm to Pettifogger
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:47 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
but some polls definitely deserve credit (Trafalgar).
Then why does Nate Plastic exclude them from his analysis?
1
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:48 pm to MButterfly
quote:
Sigh all you want. Leading up to the end they had Ossoff up by 5 points 7 days ago. 2 days ago by 3.
The whole narrative was this was headed to a Trump disaster.
Not only that, but at least 50% of the votes were already cast in early voting.
Whatever swing in the BS polls at the last minute would only project election day voting.
The spreads and timing are on Butterfly's side.
Other dude pettifogger dumb, ill informed, bitchass and butthurt.
This post was edited on 6/20/17 at 10:50 pm
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:49 pm to CptBengal
As noted in another thread, Nate clearly included it in his final assessment (conclusions on social media). As for why it's not included in his calculations, I don't know. Does he include PPP?
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:50 pm to deeprig9
quote:
The spreads and timing are on Butterfly's side.
Other dude dumb, ill informed, bitchass and butthurt.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:51 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
As for why it's not included in his calculations, I don't know.
I do.
He's a fricking hack.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:51 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
RCP average
Nice dodge
1 poll. ONE, released yesterday, had Handel winning. 4 other final polls did not. FOUR
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:56 pm to Pettifogger
That there's still a functioning, go along, get along political system. Not one where the media and subsidiaries have become arms of a political party.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 10:56 pm to RobbBobb
It's not a dodge you buffoon
2 weeks prior, WSB (dead heat yesterday) had Ossoff +3
A week prior, Trafalgar (Handel +2 yesterday) had Ossoff +3
Not everything is a left wing conspiracy
2 weeks prior, WSB (dead heat yesterday) had Ossoff +3
A week prior, Trafalgar (Handel +2 yesterday) had Ossoff +3
Not everything is a left wing conspiracy
Posted on 6/20/17 at 11:00 pm to NIH
quote:
That there's still a functioning, go along, get along political system. Not one where the media and subsidiaries have become arms of a political party.
I don't know how many times it's necessary for me to say "I don't know that the country can continue without splitting up" to erase this stupid "oh are you coming around to our way of thinking yet on the system" mantra.
I don't come around to your way of thinking because your arguments are typically really, really shitty. It's black or white, liberals are evil, Trump is a hero! Nate Silver, against his personal interest, tries to garner Democratic votes!
If I raise the fact that the 6th district isn't exactly enthusiastic about Trump, but may be holding on to the grudge that led them to Trump, I get 20 downvotes. It's dumb, and I really don't want to be associated with the celebration of dumb shite.
FWIW I acknowledge that you're not always in lockstep with these people.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 11:06 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
It's not a dodge you buffoon
2 weeks prior, WSB (dead heat yesterday) had Ossoff +3
A week prior, Trafalgar (Handel +2 yesterday) had Ossoff +3
Not everything is a left wing conspiracy
That seems to be a pattern.
Huge leads by Dems early in the campaigns, tightening at the end, only to have the Republican win handily.
I think it's pretty clear that the polling is manipulated early.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 11:08 pm to moneyg
quote:
I think it's pretty clear that the polling is manipulated early.
When though? And why are right-leaning pollsters involved in said manipulation in favor of the left?
Posted on 6/20/17 at 11:15 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
Nate Silver, against his personal interest, tries to garner Democratic votes!
That is some first class ignorance there
quote:
Nate Silver is worried that his polling might actually influence election results. “The polls can certainly affect elections at times.
quote:
maybe I'll stop doing it. I don't want to influence the democratic process in a negative way.... I don't want to affect their motive because they trust the forecasters."
He lied. He didn't quit, because he wants people to trust, and vote with him
quote:
"In the end, Nate is influencing elections." It's an offshoot of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle: If you observe an election, and people read your observations, you influence it — Period."
Posted on 6/20/17 at 11:18 pm to RobbBobb
You posted three statements insightful and honest statements about how forecasting/reporting can influence results for an entirely different proposition.
"first class ignorance"
"first class ignorance"
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