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What will happen to the stock market after the election
Posted on 11/2/16 at 11:49 am
Posted on 11/2/16 at 11:49 am
I need to transfer out of my 401k by the end of dec...any thoughts on what will happen to the market...
Posted on 11/2/16 at 11:53 am to tigers1956
Trump wins- go down
Hillary wins- continue sideways
The market has Hillary priced in as the winner. Trump is a wild card in many investors eyes so I can see a nice little drop/buying opportunity.
Hillary wins- continue sideways
The market has Hillary priced in as the winner. Trump is a wild card in many investors eyes so I can see a nice little drop/buying opportunity.
This post was edited on 11/2/16 at 11:55 am
Posted on 11/2/16 at 11:56 am to tigers1956
It will fluctuate. - J.P. Morgan
Posted on 11/2/16 at 12:45 pm to tigers1956
Like a previous poster said, the market priced in a clinton presidency and it'll 'fluctuate' if that doesn't happen. I attribute the market going down recently to trumps increased popularity the past 2 weeks.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 12:51 pm to Omada
quote:
It will fluctuate. - J.P. Morgan
JPM is in the tank for Clinton.
Based off their Q3 market commentary it can basically be summed up to - Clinton will maintain status quo; we don't know what the frick goes on in Trump's head.
This an aside on belongs on the Poli board, but anyway, this is the same reason that Democrats would endorse Edwin Edwards, they don't care if their candidate is corrupt and morally bankrupt, as long as they don't threaten the status quo.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 1:50 pm to tigers1956
Investors hate uncertainty. HRC + Republican Congress = no change. They can roll with that.
President Trump means investors have no idea what's in the short term future. That will cause panic. If you're worried, cash in now and sit on the money for a few months.
If you can hang on for the next few years, investors will adjust to Trump and you'll recover any losses once everything settles.
President Trump means investors have no idea what's in the short term future. That will cause panic. If you're worried, cash in now and sit on the money for a few months.
If you can hang on for the next few years, investors will adjust to Trump and you'll recover any losses once everything settles.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 3:49 pm to tigers1956
I'd say generally everyone on here is pretty spot on. But in my opinion, spot on about the short term, emotional reaction of the market. Which for some is meaningless, and for others is very meaningful.
Longer term the market will continue to have natural movement and cycles no matter who gets elected. But also after an election we could get new policies enacted. As an example we could get a 15% pass through income rate.
So for example I am personally making some short term trades (speculation) due to the market's emotion (which is entirely irrational in my opinion), and I have cash on the sidelines waiting to see what, if any, policies get enacted in order to better direct a long term strategy with my money.
I could continue by saying, "if I were you, and I had to transfer money out of a 401K by December 2016.....", but I'm not you.
Longer term the market will continue to have natural movement and cycles no matter who gets elected. But also after an election we could get new policies enacted. As an example we could get a 15% pass through income rate.
So for example I am personally making some short term trades (speculation) due to the market's emotion (which is entirely irrational in my opinion), and I have cash on the sidelines waiting to see what, if any, policies get enacted in order to better direct a long term strategy with my money.
I could continue by saying, "if I were you, and I had to transfer money out of a 401K by December 2016.....", but I'm not you.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 4:20 pm to Iowa Golfer
What type of investments do you start looking at more closely at this point?
I have pulled a bit out of indexes to keep on the sideline for a little while, still not exactly sure where or when I will reenter that money though.
I have pulled a bit out of indexes to keep on the sideline for a little while, still not exactly sure where or when I will reenter that money though.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 4:44 pm to mydadpulledout
quote:The market dropped nearly a full percentage point on Friday immediately when Comey's letter became public. Evidently investors aren't big on MAGA.
I attribute the market going down recently to trumps increased popularity the past 2 weeks.
To be fair though, I think a lot of the market dropping recently has to do with the increased likelihood of a December rate hike.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 6:15 pm to jturn17
googl looks damn good here long term down bigly this past week
Posted on 11/2/16 at 7:52 pm to tigers1956
The Wall St. players seem to prefer Clinton as POTUS and the Republicans to hold Congress (keeping her in check).
IMO, too many people are just focusing on the presidential race, as if one of them is going to be elected emperor. Thankfully, it hasn't come to that yet.
If by transferring out of your 401k, you mean rolling it into an IRA, other than the mutual funds and/or stocks that will transfer over, why not dollar cost average the cash balance back into the market over time? But the big question is, how old are you? I mean, how long do you have until retirement?
IMO, too many people are just focusing on the presidential race, as if one of them is going to be elected emperor. Thankfully, it hasn't come to that yet.
If by transferring out of your 401k, you mean rolling it into an IRA, other than the mutual funds and/or stocks that will transfer over, why not dollar cost average the cash balance back into the market over time? But the big question is, how old are you? I mean, how long do you have until retirement?
Posted on 11/4/16 at 4:53 am to Jag_Warrior
I'm retired now...just retired
Posted on 11/4/16 at 7:55 am to tigers1956
quote:It's either going to go up or down.
What will happen to the stock market after the election
Posted on 11/8/16 at 8:59 pm to castorinho
I've got a large chunk of cash to be invested... took it out after brexit recovery... I'll do some DCA tomorrow, but I see further downside no matter who wins... and especially if Trump does.
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