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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:11 am to LakeViewLSU
quote:
but this scenario is no Bueno.
It's likely overdone, that is a problem with the HWRF. Earlier on, the HWRF was blowing this up as it moved towards Florida and I posted that seemed unlikely to happen b/c it appeared that the HWRF was all wrong with the upper levels. Now on this run, the upper level representation over the Gulf at the time of that image seems reasonable.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:15 am to dualed
quote:That is a forecast by an outlier model. Sort of like a political poll showing Hillary winning Florida by 40 points....
By the pic I'm looking at several posts up, I'm wondering how the poop has stalled at all.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:17 am to LSURussian
ok good. I hop in the thread and see one guy say we're good and then I see that pic and I'm thinking alright I need batteries, candles.. 
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:28 am to rds dc
Western shift continues on the 12z model suite. Also getting some convection very near the low level circulation.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 8:30 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:28 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Your link doesn't work.
ETA: Fixed. Thanks.
ETA: Fixed. Thanks.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 8:29 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:30 am to Roll Tide Ravens
so we are now back in play 
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:32 am to LSUvegasbombed
I don't think anyone was/ is "out of play" at this point
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:32 am to Roll Tide Ravens
can you help me understand what the "times" mean
like 12z, whats that in relation to?
how often are there new "suites"?
like 12z, whats that in relation to?
how often are there new "suites"?
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:33 am to Theboot32
Greenwich time. 5 hours ahead of CDT.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:34 am to slackster
quote:
Greenwich time
gotcha, and how often are there new suites?
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:34 am to LSUvegasbombed
Everyone from Texas to Florida is in play. That isn't changing for the rest of the day.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:37 am to Swagga
Bottom line, until this thing gets some circulation and develops into a tropical storm the models are highly unreliable and can't determine what to make of it. They mean nothing until this thing gets some development. It's like a preseason football poll.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 8:39 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:39 am to Swagga
That westward shift is worrying but it isn't surprising and it probably isn't the last of the shifting. HWRF is horrifying but I really do think it is greatly overdoing intensity...or maybe I just hope it is. The Euro and the GFS seemed to plow the storm through a ridge and that is suspect to me but those models are usually the most trustworthy. Let's see what this afternoon entails.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:40 am to Marlo Stanfield
That is simply not true but people keep repeating it over and over as if it is.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:40 am to Marlo Stanfield
this thread really should not of been made until Saturday/Early Sunday lol too much uncertainty until then
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:40 am to Marlo Stanfield
I think that is the worst part about this system. Pretty much all of them have a tropical system entering the gulf but all we can do is speculate and wait for it to take its sweet arse time getting organized. That last run has far too many models on the west side for my liking.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:43 am to Marlo Stanfield
quote:
They mean nothing until this thing gets some development. It's like a preseason football poll
Hold up... You're telling me preseason football doesn't matter? Who do you think you are??
Posted on 8/25/16 at 8:47 am to CuseTiger
As a Texas tiger.
I volunteer the state of Texas to fall on the sword if this makes it in the Gulf. We need Louisiana to remain unscathed for the upcoming football season and besides, no football team in Texas has anything to really play for.
I volunteer the state of Texas to fall on the sword if this makes it in the Gulf. We need Louisiana to remain unscathed for the upcoming football season and besides, no football team in Texas has anything to really play for.
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 8:49 am
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