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re: Cashier at store told me one guy has spent $4000 on Powerball
Posted on 1/13/16 at 7:57 am to josh336
Posted on 1/13/16 at 7:57 am to josh336
I would say each additional ticket increases your odds at a diminishing rate. Going from 1 to 2 doubles your odds. Going from 2 to 3 only increases your odds by 50%
Posted on 1/13/16 at 7:58 am to tiggerthetooth
Identical boy/girl doesn't exist. If there are twins that are boy/girl, they are fraternal.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 8:03 am to tiggerthetooth
quote:No. Boy/Girl must be includes with Girl/Boy. In other words, there are two possiblities of having a boy (twin 1 or twin 2); it's like flipping a coin. HERE Is a good explanation.
Identical boys Identical girls Fraternal Boys Fraternal Girls Fraternal girl/boy Identical boy/girl 4/6 = 2/3
The four outcomes are as follows:
BB
GG
BG
GB
So it's 3/4.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 8:12 am to Vandyrone
quote:
Slackster, there is a distinction in statistics between probability and odds. Not quite OT material but this might help.
Thank you, and that is what I mentioned in the edit of my post. However, that is not how the Powerball quotes its odds on its website. They explicitly state the "odds" of winning the jackpot are 1 in 292,201,338. In the traditional since of "odds", that should read 1:292,201,337, much like a coin flip landing on heads has the probability of 50% and odds of 1:1. The Powerball website and any 'odds' you see quoted there are called odds but are in fact probabilities listed as fractions. They say the odds are 1 in 292,201,338, but that actually represents the total successes, 1, over the total possibilities, 292,201,338.
Considering they use probabilities in the place of odds on their website, I don't see any reason for my math to have been incorrect or stated poorly in this thread, but this is the OT so I don't expect many people to have much of an understanding one way or the other.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 8:14 am to CaptainJ47
quote:
I would say each additional ticket increases your odds at a diminishing rate. Going from 1 to 2 doubles your odds. Going from 2 to 3 only increases your odds by 50%
That is an interesting, albeit correct, way to describe it. The most important ticket you buy is the first one, and every ticket after that does increase your odds, but it does so at a slower and slower rate.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 8:29 am to slackster
Where you ran into trouble was back on the first page when using the odds terminology of "1 in" to describe the effect on probability of buying $4000 worth of tickets.
From the article I linked:
Thus the reason for all the down votes and the claim from someone that you don't understand how odds works.
quote:
Yours odds improve from 1 in 292,000,000 to 1 in 146,000.
From the article I linked:
quote:
In everyday conversation when numbers or values aren’t given, the two terms are synonymous . If an event has a high probability, then it has high odds for happening. The incorrect usage arises when a person ascribes a mathematical value to either the odds or probability they are discussing
Thus the reason for all the down votes and the claim from someone that you don't understand how odds works.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 9:02 am to Vandyrone
Fair enough. How is this:
Buying 2000 tickets improves your probability. Your odds become 1:145,999. They began at 1:292,201,337.
Disclaimer: The Powerball website says your 'odds' of winning are 1 in 292,201,338, but mathematically they're giving you the probability, not the odds.
Buying 2000 tickets improves your probability. Your odds become 1:145,999. They began at 1:292,201,337.
Disclaimer: The Powerball website says your 'odds' of winning are 1 in 292,201,338, but mathematically they're giving you the probability, not the odds.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 1:57 pm to tigerskin
quote:
Cashier at store told me one guy has spent $4000 on Powerball
A drop in the bucket.
Over 200 million combinations across the nation were sold for the last draw .Over 200 million with nearly 100 million combinations still remaining.
Zero winners. Staggering .
Posted on 1/13/16 at 2:06 pm to sugar71
Spend 300 Million to get 50/50 odds
According to this article you'd have to spend 300 million on lotto tickets to get 50/50 odds
According to this article you'd have to spend 300 million on lotto tickets to get 50/50 odds
Posted on 1/13/16 at 2:25 pm to TexasTiger1984
quote:To be exact, you would have buy 50% of the possible combinations, so at $2 per combination, you would have to buy $292,201,338.
According to this article you'd have to spend 300 million on lotto tickets to get 50/50 odds
The trouble part of that article, is this incorrect meme that it was being spread on social media:
quote:$4.3 million times 300 million citizens = $1.3 QUADRILLION.
A meme circulating on social media claims that if the Powerball winnings ($1.3 billion at the time) were evenly distributed among the United States’ population of roughly 300 million, everyone would receive $4.33 million, solving poverty. But that does not add up: 1.3 billion divided by 300 million would actually leave $4.33 per person. (Side note: The country’s population is currently estimated at 325 million).
AND it's no wonder people think the solution is to take from the rich; they have no conceptualization of math whatsoever.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 2:30 pm to slackster
quote:
Yours odds improve from 1 in 292,000,000 to 1 in 146,000. That is pretty damn significant.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 2:32 pm to slackster
quote:
Buying 2000 tickets improves your probability. Your odds become 1:145,999. They began at 1:292,201,337.
Do you think the computer didnt repeat any combinations? He obviously didnt hand pick 2000 tickets.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 2:33 pm to sugar71
If you got everyone in Tiger Stadium to purchase ~$5,700 in Powerball tickets you could guarantee that someone in the stadium would win the jackpot.
You read all of these odds that are absurd and meant to show you how ridiculous your chances are, but that puts a pretty positive spin on things.
I'll never understand the people who call it a stupid tax and ridicule those who play. I think it is absolutely incredible that you can pay $2 and win a $930M cash jackpot, yet all people can talk about is how slim your chances are going to be.
You read all of these odds that are absurd and meant to show you how ridiculous your chances are, but that puts a pretty positive spin on things.
I'll never understand the people who call it a stupid tax and ridicule those who play. I think it is absolutely incredible that you can pay $2 and win a $930M cash jackpot, yet all people can talk about is how slim your chances are going to be.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 2:37 pm to tigerskin
Most gas stations I frequent do not accept credit cards as payment for Lotto tickets. If this holds true for most gas stations, good chance this guy walked in carrying $4k in cash.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 2:39 pm to tiggerthetooth
quote:
Do you think the computer didnt repeat any combinations? He obviously didnt hand pick 2000 tickets
My math could be wrong, because this thread is full of funky math, but I believe the probability of the QPs picking 2000 random numbers without repeating any of the same combinations is 99.317536%, so it is pretty safe to assume they were all unique.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 2:42 pm to tiggerthetooth
quote:
Do you think the computer didnt repeat any combinations? He obviously didnt hand pick 2000 tickets.
Although it's possible, the chance of repeating a combination with only 2000 tickets is very small.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 2:43 pm to Black n Gold
quote:
good chance this guy walked in carrying $4k in cash.
Or a debit card.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 2:43 pm to slackster
that's because you are ten times more likely to die in a car crash on the way to and from the gas station where you bought your ticket than you are to cash that ticket for the grand prize
Posted on 1/13/16 at 3:11 pm to TexasTiger1984
quote:
According to this article you'd have to spend 300 million on lotto tickets to get 50/50 odds
Do people really need an article to confirm this? Can't anyone here explain how this works step by step? If you understand what division does, you ought to be able to explain how to think about this problem.
Posted on 1/13/16 at 3:21 pm to slackster
quote:I actually envisioned it like the Birthday Problem LINKwhereas the probability is calculated by the total possible pairs.
My math could be wrong, because this thread is full of funky math, but I believe the probability of the QPs picking 2000 random numbers without repeating any of the same combinations is 99.317536%, so it is pretty safe to assume they were all unique.
Basically, if you randomly took 23 people, and asked what the probability that 2 of those individuals share a birthday, it may be intuitive to say 6.3% (23/365) but the true probability 50.7%. This is because we are looking at all possible pairs.
So if this is the correct way to look at it (which I believe it is), then there is roughly a little over 6% chance that you'll draw the same combination twice.
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