quote:
This graph is based on every shot taken by every player during the 2013-2014 season. The red line — showing the average FG% by distance — drops dramatically until you get to about three feet, and from there everything has about a 40% chance of being made. On average, a team that takes more of their shots within three feet of the basket will make a higher percentage of them and thus, have a more effective offense. But there is one rule in the NBA which adds a layer of complexity — the three-point line.

The blue line on the graph above shows the effective field goal percentage (eFG%) by distance. Since eFG% accounts for the extra point scored on a three-point basket, what we’re seeing is the average value of shots by distance, not just how likely they are to be made.

quote:
This balancing act between a single shot and the thousands of shots a team takes throughout a season can be difficult to see. On an individual possession, the understanding of shot selection hasn’t really changed in the last 50 years — who’s shooting and how open they are still define most of what makes a good or bad shot. But when we put all those shots together we can see that commitment to a process, and a certain team or player-specific definition of what makes a good shot can change everything.

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Posted by TigerinATL

Member since Feb 2005

62060 posts

Posted on 7/29/14 at 10:11 am to corndeaux

quote:
everything has about a 40% chance of being made.

That really expands the dumb zone. It's basically saying a Tyreke or Aminu 3 point shot is a better shot than the average player shooting anywhere between 3 feet and the 3 point line. That's crazy, and surely something that is only true in theory and not practice.

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Posted by corndeaux

Member since Sep 2009

9634 posts

Posted on 7/29/14 at 10:11 am to corndeaux

And here is another entry into the TeamSPACE concept from a week ago, this one focusing on the Southwest division.

They break down all 5 teams most used lineups (the Mavs are absurd). I'll just show the Pelicans and the write up.

quote:
Rounding out the division, the chart for the Pelicans is an interesting mix of things that don’t seem to work well together. It begins with likely too much area covered by Jason Smith and Al-Farouq Aminu, and not enough from the Anthony Davis/Eric Gordon/Jrue Holiday trio. There are promising trends here. Though. Davis is obviously most effective in the hoop, and has some tiny Hunting Grounds developing along the baseline, foul line extended, and top of the key. Gordon consistently dominates both 3pt wings. Holiday displays the potential of a balanced attack, with strong activity in the paint and some activity near the foul line/elbow. However, his midrange game is crowded by Smith (and vice versa), and only has one distinctly unique Hunting Ground from deep to his name. In a strictly shot selection/Hunting Ground perspective, this lineup resembles a less disciplined Spurs group.

A few tweaks could go a long way for the Pelicans offense, including:

Keep Aminu (or rather, his replacement) in the the corners and out of the elbow

More Brow shots on the block and near the foul line

Share the elbows between Smith and Holiday; likely giving Holiday more room on the right side (the chart’s left side)

LINK

Wonder what the Holiday, Gordon, Evans, Anderson, Davis hunting ground looks like.

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