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12 hours until December unemployment and jobs reports - guesses?
Posted on 1/9/14 at 7:35 pm
Posted on 1/9/14 at 7:35 pm
I'll go with 226,00 new jobs and the rate staying at 7.0% ( once it drops below 7.0%, it will be difficult to get back to it in an election year - nevertheless, it would not stun me to see 6.9% tomorrow morning at 8:30 Eastern)
Posted on 1/9/14 at 7:40 pm to NHTIGER
Depends on their agenda I suppose....
Posted on 1/9/14 at 7:41 pm to NHTIGER
220k jobs, and 6.9. sucks politically, but good news for America.
Posted on 1/9/14 at 7:46 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
6.9% tomorrow morning at 8:30 Eastern
A 6.9% print would prompt many in the White House to do a touchdown dance. Wall Street will go negative in the morning thinking that Yellen will bring in more tapering. After 11:00 AM Wall Street will then turn green realizing that Federal Reserve policy is no longer based on creating a monetary environment for low unemployment and the Federal Reserve will continue pumping. (Federal Reserve policy is based on keeping interest rates low so the federal government can continue to spend beyond the tax revenue it takes in.)
Posted on 1/9/14 at 7:49 pm to GumboPot
quote:
A 6.9% print would prompt many in the White House to do a touchdown dance. Wall Street will go negative in the morning thinking that Yellen will bring in more tapering. After 11:00 AM Wall Street will then turn green realizing that Federal Reserve policy is no longer based on creating a monetary environment for low unemployment and the Federal Reserve will continue pumping. (Federal Reserve policy is based on keeping interest rates low so the federal government can continue to spend beyond the tax revenue it takes in.)
Good post.
Posted on 1/9/14 at 9:12 pm to NHTIGER
The only thing I would do with the market where it is would be to short it.
Jobs report 6.8% 180k added... last month revised to 67k more than reported.
Jobs report 6.8% 180k added... last month revised to 67k more than reported.
Posted on 1/9/14 at 10:58 pm to darkhorse
quote:
last month revised to 67k more than reported.
Nothing would surprise me from the BLS - but a 67k revision in just one month would be eyecatching to say the least !
Posted on 1/10/14 at 7:55 am to NHTIGER
Moments ago December nonfarms were revealed at just 74,000 a huge miss to expectations of 197,000 - the biggest miss Since December 2009.
Posted on 1/10/14 at 8:01 am to NHTIGER
quote:if this is what you're doing on. Thursday night and you're married, get counseling.
I'll go with 226,00 new jobs and the rate staying at 7.0% ( once it drops below 7.0%, it will be difficult to get back to it in an election year - nevertheless, it would not stun me to see 6.9% tomorrow morning at 8:30 Eastern)
If this is what you're doing on a Thursday night and you're not married, this is why you're not married.
Posted on 1/10/14 at 8:09 am to Vegas Bengal
Maybe she was where she belongs in the kitchen making him a sammich?
Posted on 1/10/14 at 8:12 am to ironsides
quote:
Depends on their agenda I suppose....
do they want and excuse to extend unemployment benefits or
do they want to pat themselves on the back and make it appear like they know what they are doing?
Posted on 1/10/14 at 8:14 am to NHTIGER
Uptick in the numbers will be because of "seasonal adjustments" with the holidays after Christmas was done.
Posted on 1/10/14 at 8:21 am to CITWTT
UE rate down to 6.7%, but even CNN admits this is because of workers leaving labor force.
Plus...December falling that short on jobs? When you have a shitton of seasonal hiring?
Yep, this economy's in fantastic shape! Open the Fed spigots!!!!!!!!!!
Plus...December falling that short on jobs? When you have a shitton of seasonal hiring?
Yep, this economy's in fantastic shape! Open the Fed spigots!!!!!!!!!!
Posted on 1/10/14 at 8:33 am to NHTIGER
quote:
12 hours until December unemployment and jobs reports - guesses?
Whatever it is it won't be what was "expected".
Posted on 1/10/14 at 8:37 am to udtiger
A large part in the numbers declining in the report is the loss of benefits to 1.3 million people with the new year.
Posted on 1/10/14 at 8:40 am to udtiger
LINK
How in the hell can unemployment rate drop .4% when you only added a miserable 74,000 jobs last month? Correct me if i'm wrong, but isn't that the lowest gain in employment since BO took office?
So participation rate declined, but everything else stayed the same. And yet unemployment decreased by .4%? These reports are utterly worthless now, because Obama and his goons will come spouting off how great the economy is, when in truth it is actually worse.
quote:
The unemployment rate declined from 7.0 percent to 6.7 percent in
December, while total nonfarm payroll employment edged up (+74,000),
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
How in the hell can unemployment rate drop .4% when you only added a miserable 74,000 jobs last month? Correct me if i'm wrong, but isn't that the lowest gain in employment since BO took office?
quote:
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (6.3
percent) and whites (5.9 percent) declined in December. The rates for adult
women (6.0 percent), teenagers (20.2 percent), blacks (11.9 percent), and
Hispanics (8.3 percent) showed little change. The jobless rate for Asians
was 4.1 percent (not seasonally adjusted), down by 2.5 percentage points
over the year.
quote:
Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed
temporary jobs decreased by 365,000 in December to 5.4 million. The number
of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.9
million, showed little change; these individuals accounted for 37.7 percent
of the unemployed.
quote:
The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage
point to 62.8 percent in December, offsetting a change of the same
magnitude in November. In December, the employment-population ratio was
unchanged at 58.6 percent. The labor force participation rate declined by
0.8 percentage point over the year, while the employment-population ratio
was unchanged. (See table A-1.)
So participation rate declined, but everything else stayed the same. And yet unemployment decreased by .4%? These reports are utterly worthless now, because Obama and his goons will come spouting off how great the economy is, when in truth it is actually worse.
quote:
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes
referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at
7.8 million in December. These individuals were working part time because
their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-
time work.
quote:
In December, 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force,
little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.)
These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for
work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not
counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks
preceding the survey.
quote:
Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up in December (+74,000). In 2013,
job growth averaged 182,000 per month, about the same as in 2012 (+183,000
per month). In December, job gains occurred in retail trade and wholesale
trade, while employment declined in information.
quote:
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged
down by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in December. The manufacturing workweek
was unchanged, at 41.0 hours, and factory overtime edged up by 0.1 hour
to 3.5 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory
employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 33.6 hours.
Posted on 1/10/14 at 8:50 am to udtiger
quote:
UE rate down to 6.7%, but even CNN admits this is because of workers leaving labor force.
Right.
Here are the trends:
Unemployment rate:
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate:
So it is entirely clear that this economy is reducing it's unemployment rate by simply counting less participants.
Posted on 1/10/14 at 8:57 am to GumboPot
It was pretty telling when I flipped to both CNN and MSNBC and both didn't have any positive spin to put on this news. That's when you know its REALLY bad. However, I'm sure there is some dem out there that will try and tout this as a victory
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