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Doolittle's top Center projections (WARP)
Posted on 8/9/13 at 4:42 pm
Posted on 8/9/13 at 4:42 pm
Since this board has followed all of these articles, here's a recap of the last one Insider,
At this point, if you don't realize this list is a WARP projection(using ATH) list-not a top 10 most talented list, then you're doing it wrong. Links to WARP and ATH, etc. can be found in this thread
1)Howard-WARP 13.2.back injuries raise questions-block rate was up last year, suggesting athleticism has not vanished. Intentional fouls on Howard pervert the foul drawing model. His last full healthy season warp was 20.5
2) Drummond-WARP 10.1- projected value comes block/rebound rates, as well as foul drawing and steals. Playing time is questionable (with Detroit's small ball possibility). Free throws are going to hurt him(37%). Raw, but bigger than last year.
3) Cousins-WARP 8.7. Gradually getting more accurate. Fouls, shot selection and turnovers. Maybe new coach uses him differently
4) Horford-WARP 8.3. Can raise his value if he re-adjusts FT stroke (down 9%), making him more jumper oriented.
5) Noah-WARP 8.1.Assist rate expected to drop with Rose back, returned focus to crashing glass.Expects minutes to be better managed.
6)Monroe-WARP 8.0. Down from his first two seasons. Shooting more face up jumpers(with Drummonds rise),only hits 32% of them. Must develop this shot to take advantage of strong passing skills.
7)Jefferson-WARP 7.8. Always on a bad team looking for scoring. Won't get better in Charlotte.
8)JaVale McGee- WARP 7.3. Rates always good, production up into "star role" with increased playing time.
9)Marc Gasol-WARP 7.2. writer's admits this is a strange decline, but system shows him to be better defensively. Regression lies in age/body style, hence athletically worse. Says Grizz can't withstand a 4 win drop off from him.
10) Bosh- WARP 6.8. Not asked to do much. Not an elite rim protector. If Wade's minutes are tightly managed, Bosh might pick up more responsibility.
Others-Anderson Varejao, Pau Gasol, Tyson Chandler, Brook Lopez, DeAndre Jordan.
Doolittle says subjectively he expects Lopez to be in top 10.block/rebound rates up, but usage rate will be down.
Notables: Hibbert,Bynum
Hibbert has struggled two years out of three. hit 44.9% of two pointers (does not acknowledge bad wrist most of the year). Doolittle admits Hibbert is the type of player who isn't properly measured by any metric right now. A fully healthy Bynum is a stud.
At this point, if you don't realize this list is a WARP projection(using ATH) list-not a top 10 most talented list, then you're doing it wrong. Links to WARP and ATH, etc. can be found in this thread
1)Howard-WARP 13.2.back injuries raise questions-block rate was up last year, suggesting athleticism has not vanished. Intentional fouls on Howard pervert the foul drawing model. His last full healthy season warp was 20.5
2) Drummond-WARP 10.1- projected value comes block/rebound rates, as well as foul drawing and steals. Playing time is questionable (with Detroit's small ball possibility). Free throws are going to hurt him(37%). Raw, but bigger than last year.
3) Cousins-WARP 8.7. Gradually getting more accurate. Fouls, shot selection and turnovers. Maybe new coach uses him differently
4) Horford-WARP 8.3. Can raise his value if he re-adjusts FT stroke (down 9%), making him more jumper oriented.
5) Noah-WARP 8.1.Assist rate expected to drop with Rose back, returned focus to crashing glass.Expects minutes to be better managed.
6)Monroe-WARP 8.0. Down from his first two seasons. Shooting more face up jumpers(with Drummonds rise),only hits 32% of them. Must develop this shot to take advantage of strong passing skills.
7)Jefferson-WARP 7.8. Always on a bad team looking for scoring. Won't get better in Charlotte.
8)JaVale McGee- WARP 7.3. Rates always good, production up into "star role" with increased playing time.
9)Marc Gasol-WARP 7.2. writer's admits this is a strange decline, but system shows him to be better defensively. Regression lies in age/body style, hence athletically worse. Says Grizz can't withstand a 4 win drop off from him.
10) Bosh- WARP 6.8. Not asked to do much. Not an elite rim protector. If Wade's minutes are tightly managed, Bosh might pick up more responsibility.
Others-Anderson Varejao, Pau Gasol, Tyson Chandler, Brook Lopez, DeAndre Jordan.
Doolittle says subjectively he expects Lopez to be in top 10.block/rebound rates up, but usage rate will be down.
Notables: Hibbert,Bynum
Hibbert has struggled two years out of three. hit 44.9% of two pointers (does not acknowledge bad wrist most of the year). Doolittle admits Hibbert is the type of player who isn't properly measured by any metric right now. A fully healthy Bynum is a stud.
Posted on 8/9/13 at 5:26 pm to RonBurgundy
A New Orleans player is not on this list, so I think it is a stupid list
rabble rabble
rabble rabble
Posted on 8/9/13 at 7:19 pm to RonBurgundy
I don't think there's a way to make an advanced stat look any worse than these lists from Doolitle have.
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