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re: Apple up over 10% and $47 since last week....what do we see first $500 or $400

Posted on 5/6/13 at 3:58 pm to
Posted by ThaBigFella
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts
Posted on 5/6/13 at 3:58 pm to
ah gotcha! Like I said Im a buy and hold type, I don't have the balls or time to daytrade with work, but this is some pretty cool stuff, thats awesome

Thanks for teaching me, so my biggest holding is Phillip Morris, its nearly 50% of my holdings, im in from $39 til now so all my shares are avg like $64 anyways

so what are all the resistance points by percentages? and what comes after the last one? For PM I get a 23.6% of around $85 which its way past right at $93
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28897 posts
Posted on 5/6/13 at 4:35 pm to
I'm not an expert by any means, but from what I can gather the technical analysts essentially have a method to draw a line pretty much anywhere on the chart. You have these fib levels, your various moving averages, trendlines, etc. So, at any given time they can say "look for such and such when the stock approaches price X", and X can be anything.

In the case of PM, what stands out to me is the "double top" where it tried (and failed) to get very far above $96 twice in the last month. To the technical analyst (TA here on out), this looks like strong "resistance", and now does not appear to be a good time to buy for a mid to long term position. However, another thing that stands out is that PM has been getting strong "support" from the 50-day moving average, having bounced off of it 3 times since February, and is as of today possibly bouncing for a 4th time.

So, as a novice TA, I would say that if PM dips down below the 50-day MA in the next couple of days ($92.50 or so), then look for it to make a considerable move further down. If it instead bounces back up in the next few days back toward $96, then that would be the next time to watch. The support and resistance will continue to "squeeze" the chart into that pennant pattern. Generally, whatever happens in the days following PM either breaking above $96, or below the MA, would be an indication to the TA as to the direction of the next short/mid term trend.
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