re: Saints playoff odds are brighter than advertised.

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1) Win out and odds are the Saints are in.

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Yes

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2) Lose 1 and the Saints will need a lot of help (<50% chance)

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No. Would say that 10-6 gives about a 80% chance looking at the remaining schedules of other contenders.

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3) Lose 2 and the Saints are done (always a slim chance but <5%).

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Once again, tough schedules for teams fighting for playoff spots. This scenario would have to involve a lot of help, but I'd give this about a 15% chance.