re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Ukraine war: More than 220,000 Russian troops and mercenaries killed or injured since start of invasion, UK defence sec says

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In February, British intelligence said Russia and its private military contractor forces had likely suffered between 175,000 to 200,000 casualties since the start of the invasion in February 2022.

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So, the official estimate is that Russia (including Wagner) has suffered over 20,000 casualties in the last month. Ukraine likely somewhat overestimates the Russian death totals, but the loss of 20,000 men weakens the Russian defense ahead of Ukraine's offensive. (And that's not counting the loss of the 5000 Wagner convicts who've received their pardons.)

This is one of a number of reasons that I think Ukraine will begin its spring offensive before the end of April. No, the three new army corps are not ready yet, and it would be much better for them to spend a couple of months training together with all their new equipment -- but Russia isn't ready, either.

We don't know how close the Russian military might be to collapse. We know that they are very low on artillery shells, but we don't know how low. We know that tank ammo is running short. We know that the supply of Kornet ATGMs is starting to be rationed. The longer that Ukraine waits to attack, the more time that Russia has to try to replenish stocks.

Putin will have to do another big mobilization at some point. Ukraine needs to conduct this offensive before that happens.