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Posted on 3/25/23 at 1:25 am to DalenSA
quote:
You make me embarrassed and Tun Tavern feels the same
Dan Daly and Chesty Puller are spinning in their graves with what's going on with all the pussies in the Corps nowadays. I can promise you I align 100% more with Tun Tavern persona than your pogue arse ever will.
Posted on 3/25/23 at 1:30 am to NPComb
It was 10/23/93 but go ahead and make assumptions.
Posted on 3/25/23 at 1:39 am to DalenSA
For the good folks, please post updates.
Posted on 3/25/23 at 1:40 am to TerryDawg03
quote:
I’d like neutrality.
Then bring what you think are balanced sources to the thread. But don't get your feelings hurt if you get downvoted. There have in the past been people who did this but melted away when their sources got proven wrong time and time again as things developed. I still lament Ruff Fish left us, though he did take some shite but he was a Russian posting from Russia or at least he said he was.
quote:
It should allow people who aren’t pro-Ukrainian to be able to post without being labeled pro-Russian.
I think everyone understands that at some level because the majority of the arguably pro-Russian posters want Russia to prevail for reasons outside or Russia. I get that a lot of them are non-interventionalists, want to keep all the money at home, and/or have some dislike for Ukraine. I think what some of these posters miss is many if not most of us don't really have any deep seated affinity toward Ukraine but instead have deep feelings about Russia which aren't touchy-feely. This is where I am and it comes from growing up in the cold war and at least my initial time in the military training for a fight with Russia. I don't think those feelings were misplaced at the time and I don't think they are now.
quote:
Some PT regulars should invade that thread.
You said this in the most recent PT thread about Ukraine. This makes me think you are less than genuine in you desire for a serious discussion. If you want some tips look to Darth. He pushes back and accepts the pushback like an adult. He has hundreds of posts in this thread as well as quite a few spread out over the PT threads du jour and I haven't seen him once devolve into ad hominem or simple drive by sniping.
Spend some time here if you are interested and I think you will find as far as facts go the thread polices itself fairly well. No one is concerned about questioning or correcting someone else. The thread has had over a year to figure out what sources to listen to and which ones to be skeptical of. For example, if you pop in with some article where Col Macgregor says the sun will come up tomorrow nobody is going to pay any attention to it.
I don't expect you to be able to stow your feelings, nobody does but if you spend some time following the thread you will see the overall gist from the beginning until now has been fairly prescient.
Posted on 3/25/23 at 2:10 am to DalenSA
losses today
Posted on 3/25/23 at 2:31 am to jefffan
You know those numbers aren’t legit right?
And where are the Ukrainian losses?
And where are the Ukrainian losses?
Posted on 3/25/23 at 2:49 am to GeauxxxTigers23
Alright, back on track: Update from literal Chinese propaganda (haven't done one of these in a while).
China Daily published their 1-year "special edition" look at the "conflict" in Ukraine.
China Daily
Their tone has shifted from "Pro-Russia/Anti-USA" to just "Anti-USA" as the war has dragged on. This appears to be true even after the Putin/Xi summit in Moscow. This doesn't mean they aren't still friends with Russia, it more likely means they are pushing the idea "USA = bad" to attempt to turn the West from supporting Ukraine (thereby allowing potential Russian victory that way).
However, this may highlight limitations on their ability to directly support Russia. The Chinese economy is in for a rough ride post-Covid, and may need trade with the West to keep the CCP in power. However, Xi may not see a path for any relationship building with the USA, as "CCP = bad" is one of the VERY few things the US Right and US Left are actually in agreement on. So this all may be in an effort to drive a split between US and the rest of NATO.
China Daily published their 1-year "special edition" look at the "conflict" in Ukraine.
China Daily
Their tone has shifted from "Pro-Russia/Anti-USA" to just "Anti-USA" as the war has dragged on. This appears to be true even after the Putin/Xi summit in Moscow. This doesn't mean they aren't still friends with Russia, it more likely means they are pushing the idea "USA = bad" to attempt to turn the West from supporting Ukraine (thereby allowing potential Russian victory that way).
However, this may highlight limitations on their ability to directly support Russia. The Chinese economy is in for a rough ride post-Covid, and may need trade with the West to keep the CCP in power. However, Xi may not see a path for any relationship building with the USA, as "CCP = bad" is one of the VERY few things the US Right and US Left are actually in agreement on. So this all may be in an effort to drive a split between US and the rest of NATO.
Posted on 3/25/23 at 3:06 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
You know those numbers aren’t legit right?
The personnel numbers are the most questionable just because they are the hardest to verify (even if trying to get an accurate number) when you are counting casualties on the other side. The number likely has some general direct correlation to the correct number but we don't know if that is .9, .5, .2, etc.
The number on the material side may be more accurate as they are easier to count and they correlate fairly well with the Oryx numbers. I have followed the Oryx numbers for tanks and the various armored infantry vehicles from the start and the "official" Ukrainian numbers have almost always been right at 2X the Oryx verified numbers. Oryx only counts material losses that can be photographically verified, so I see their number as the bottom baseline for Russian losses. It is unlikely the Russian losses are fewer and highly likely they are significantly higher. They also list Ukraine's material losses as well BUT they are likely less accurate (lower) for a myriad of reasons. I put some degree of stock into OSINT gathered from numerous sources like Oryx does.
quote:
And where are the Ukrainian losses?
Ukrain isn't going to report them for obvious reasons. Russia hasn't bothered to put out any daily reports that I have seen. They are usually sporadic and from individual AOs vs theater wide. They may have a central report but I haven't seen it. The most Russia-centric numbers have come out of Turkey but their ratios beggar any sort of credibility.
As for my personal opinion I think the casualties on the Russian side re personnel are in the 120k range and Ukraine is probably 80k. I honestly think Ukraine may be even less than that just due to different tactics and more force multipliers on the battlefield. I think if their personnel loses were similar to the Russian numbers they would not be able to have the breathing bodies to hold Bahkmut for example while still stretched across an extremely long front.
This is just my opinion and there is no way to know how accurate it is or how much my bias and intellectual push back on that bias skews even the modest amount of factual info available. I will add I do think Russian morale in general is significantly lower which is to be expected when they are the invaders given and ever-changing line of reasoning for the invasions along with a plethora of other morale-destroying circumstances.
The one thing I am 100% sure of is Ukraine has outperformed my estimations and expectations at every turn and Russia has equally fell short. I am still baffled at Russia's lack of performance in Bahkmut and Prigozhin's most recent videos. I would not be surprised if Russia's personnel loses in that AO isn't in the 4:1 range just because without losses in that range there is no fathomable reason for them to be stymied unless the men and material they have there is significantly over-reported.
Posted on 3/25/23 at 4:33 am to GeauxxxTigers23
Of course these numbers are embellished. But the U.S estimations of how many personnel losses Russians has suffered were pretty close to what Ukraine was reporting at last check. The material losses are also close to what the photographic documented report.
Ukraine isn't going to report they losses. They need the NATO support to keep flowing in and to limit the " we're losing too much lets stop" crowd within their own country.
In short, Ukraine math is off, but they are more correct that Russia's. Russian numbers are do laughably off base they aren't even worth paper theyre printed on.
Ukraine isn't going to report they losses. They need the NATO support to keep flowing in and to limit the " we're losing too much lets stop" crowd within their own country.
In short, Ukraine math is off, but they are more correct that Russia's. Russian numbers are do laughably off base they aren't even worth paper theyre printed on.
Posted on 3/25/23 at 5:00 am to jfan244888
I just dont understand with all the billions of dollars the US has spent, that Ukranians have failed to make any progress. We even ramped up the money and they still are going to lose Bakhmut.
Without some progress, any progress, we have to stop spending our money on this losing proposition.
A better option would be to get rid of zelensky and get a more reasonable leader who negotiates with Russia before they lose the entire country.
Without some progress, any progress, we have to stop spending our money on this losing proposition.
A better option would be to get rid of zelensky and get a more reasonable leader who negotiates with Russia before they lose the entire country.
Posted on 3/25/23 at 5:07 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Ukranians have failed to make any progress
Fending off Russia for over a year is pretty good progress. It’s not always an offensive game. Defense wins championships.
Posted on 3/25/23 at 5:21 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
I just dont understand with all the billions of dollars the US has spent, that Ukranians have failed to make any progress. We even ramped up the money and they still are going to lose Bakhmut.
1) How do you conclude that Ukraine will lose Bakhmut? I spend time each day looking at Bakhmut, and I conclude the opposite and have explained why in detail.
2) Ukraine has absolutely made progress, if we are setting the date back to last summer. If you mean since the large gifts we announced in January, then the answer is that Ukraine is wisely waiting to start its spring offensive until the mud season is over. It's widely expected to start sometime between mid-April and mid-May. Everyone agrees that the expectation is for a substantial Ukrainian victory in that upcoming offensive.
Posted on 3/25/23 at 5:25 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
A better option would be to get rid of zelensky and get a more reasonable leader who negotiates with Russia before they lose the entire country.
I responded to the first part of your post without seeing this. You are either an idiot or a Russian troll, and the board was already cluttered with a bunch of crap from trolls.
To the rest of the board: I apologize, as I try not to contribute to the nonsense that invades the board.
Posted on 3/25/23 at 5:26 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
You know those numbers aren’t legit right?
Fight the good fight brother.Posted on 3/25/23 at 5:31 am to GOP_Tiger
WAR SUCKS!!!!!
Posted on 3/25/23 at 5:37 am to GOP_Tiger
The NY Times wrote about James Vasquez and similarly odd characters:
LINK
LINK
quote:
One of the best-known Americans on the battlefield is James Vasquez. Days after the invasion, Mr. Vasquez, a Connecticut home-improvement contractor, announced that he was leaving for Ukraine. His local newspaper told the tale of a former U.S. Army staff sergeant who left behind his job and family and picked up a rifle and a rucksack on the front line.
Since then, he has posted battlefield videos online, at least once broadcasting his unit’s precise location to everyone, including the opposing side. He used his story to solicit donations. “I was in Kuwait during Desert Storm, and I was in Iraq after 9/11,” Mr. Vasquez said in a fund-raising video. He added, “This is a whole different animal.”
Mr. Vasquez, in fact, was never deployed to Kuwait, Iraq or anywhere else, a Pentagon spokeswoman said. He specialized in fuel and electrical repairs. And he left the Army Reserve not as a sergeant as he claimed, but as a private first class, one of the Army’s lowest ranks.
quote:
Mr. Vasquez said he had been misrepresenting his military record for decades. He acknowledged being kicked out of the Army but would not talk publicly about why. “I had to tell a million lies to get ahead,” Mr. Vasquez said in an interview. “I didn’t realize it was going to come to this.”
Posted on 3/25/23 at 5:46 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 25 March 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Russia's assault on the Donbas town of Bakhmut has largely stalled. This is likely primarily a result of extreme attrition of the Russian force. Ukraine has also suffered heavy casualties during its defence.
The Russian situation has also likely been made worse by tensions between the Russian Ministry of Defence and Wagner Group, both of whom contribute troops in the sector.
Russia has likely shifted its operational focus towards Avdiivka, south of Bakhmut, and to the Kremina-Svatove sector in the north, areas where Russia likely only aspires to stabilise its front line. This suggests an overall return to a more defensive operational design after inconclusive results from its attempts to conduct a general offensive since January 2023.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 25 March 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Russia's assault on the Donbas town of Bakhmut has largely stalled. This is likely primarily a result of extreme attrition of the Russian force. Ukraine has also suffered heavy casualties during its defence.
The Russian situation has also likely been made worse by tensions between the Russian Ministry of Defence and Wagner Group, both of whom contribute troops in the sector.
Russia has likely shifted its operational focus towards Avdiivka, south of Bakhmut, and to the Kremina-Svatove sector in the north, areas where Russia likely only aspires to stabilise its front line. This suggests an overall return to a more defensive operational design after inconclusive results from its attempts to conduct a general offensive since January 2023.
Posted on 3/25/23 at 5:48 am to Lasix
quote:
WAR SUCKS!!!!!
Depends.
Posted on 3/25/23 at 6:07 am to Lasix
quote:
WAR SUCKS!!!!!
This is especially true among Russian soldiers who are kissing icons
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