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re: NH WMUR/SC Gravis/NBC Dem/Bloomberg(tues morn) - TN_Tigers
Or Jeb..he has been anywhere from -6 to -16. WJC was -11 in Apr 92. Obama was always fairly good with favorables during campaign times. Rubio/Walker/Carson have consisently been up there with GOP and general electorates but lots of room to be defined by opponents. Nothing too shocking wi...
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re: NH WMUR/SC Gravis/NBC Dem/Bloomberg(tues morn) - TN_Tigers
NH 2nd choice- Bush 14 Rubio 10 Christie 9 Cruz 8 Paul 7 Trump 7 Walker 6 Kasich 5 Carson 5 Fiorina 5 NH Combined Trump 31 (+11) Bush 26 (-4) Walker 17 (+3) Christie 16 (+3) Paul 14 (-) Cruz 13 (+6) Rubio 13 (-) Kasich 11 (+9) ...
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NH WMUR/SC Gravis/NBC Dem/Bloomberg(tues morn) - TN_Tigers
WMUR/UNH POLL(July 22-30) [link=(http://www.wmur.com/blob/view/-/34514782/data/1/-/vk11wsz/-/PDF---Poll-results.pdf)]LINK[/link] Trump 24 (+13) Bush 12 (-4) Walker 11 (+2) Christie 7 (+1) Paul 7 (-2) Kasich 6 (+5) Cruz 5 (+2) Carson 5 (-1) Rubio 3 (-3) Huckabee 2 (-) Jindal 2 (+2) Per...
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re: Which Republican ticket would be the best to carry key states? - TN_Tigers
[quote]I honestly agree with you-- I do think a GOP candidate other than McCain may have lost AZ in 08 though.[/quote] I agree..I think if you make the case of GOP making gains in WI, PA and MI then you have to consider NC, AZ, GA and to a lesser degree MO being in play for the dems....
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re: (LINK IN OP) VotersFirst Forum - 14 Repub. Candidates - Tonight C-SPAN @ 6:30ET - TN_Tigers
[quote]Not much difference between eastern Colorado and western Kansas.[/quote] Yea I lived out there..went to a few college visits..guy gave me a brochure and it said..we are halfway between Denver and KC..like that was supposed to sell me :lol:...
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re: Which Republican ticket would be the best to carry key states? - TN_Tigers
[quote]If 2016 is the same map as 2012- that would be the first time in American history that back to back elections produced the same map[/quote] Yea I know that would be interesting..If we have to have HRC then I want that map. Her winning CO and then FL(vs JEb or Marco) with her campaigning...
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re: FOX GOP Poll/SC Gravis(Trump up 23, HRC +70) - TN_Tigers
GRAVIS SC POLL Trump 34 Carson 11 (+5) Bush 11 (-6) Walker 10 (-6) Rubio 6 (-) Huckabee 6 (-3) Graham 5 Cruz 3 (-8) Kasich 3 Christie 3 (-4) Perry 2 Fiorina 2 (+1) Santorum 1 (-2) Paul 1 (-5) Jindal 1 Pataki 1 DEM Clinton 78 (+13 Sanders 8 (+5) Warren 6 Biden 6 (-14)...
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re: Which Republican ticket would be the best to carry key states? - TN_Tigers
[quote]I think you'll see minority rich states such as New Mexico, Nevada, and Virginia become more blue and majority white swing states such as Colorado, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio trend more red. [/quote] This would be interesting long term. I like when states dont follow how they were...
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re: (LINK IN OP) VotersFirst Forum - 14 Repub. Candidates - Tonight C-SPAN @ 6:30ET - TN_Tigers
[quote]I still find it stunning that dole actually won the state against bill. wtf?[/quote] I find it stunning Bill won Arizona..first Dem to do it since Truman I believe. Thats what I usually do the week prior to the election is place all the states in order of how the margins of victory ...
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re: (LINK IN OP) VotersFirst Forum - 14 Repub. Candidates - Tonight C-SPAN @ 6:30ET - TN_Tigers
[quote]I just can't see any scenario where the white vote accounts for more than 73-75% of the electorate (even that would be going against almost a half century of trends), given that- Rubio or another candidate with a similar stance on immigration is probably your best choice as I think the ceilin...
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re: (LINK IN OP) VotersFirst Forum - 14 Repub. Candidates - Tonight C-SPAN @ 6:30ET - TN_Tigers
CO and NV are very different..8% more of CO's electorate will be white than NV's electorate. I agree Clinton's numbers have been down worse in CO than any other battleground. Also keep in mind that the Q poll had the partisan breakdown of a midterm instead of a presidential year. In 2004, ...
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re: Which Republican ticket would be the best to carry key states? - TN_Tigers
[quote]Yea people speaking in absolutes are crazy..our political map has shifted numerous times in history. A good candidate makes the difference.[/quote] true but they usually take more than 1 cycle to occur. I dont see HRC being as bad as Mccain for example. She wont get near the black vote ...
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re: Which Republican ticket would be the best to carry key states? - TN_Tigers
[quote]Rubio-Kasich, probably in that order- I don't think simply carrying Florida and Ohio will be enough but those are the two that have the best ability to expand beyond just home swing states-- Rubio on the top because there's a chance he could catch fire and the optics are better against Hillar...
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re: (LINK IN OP) VotersFirst Forum - 14 Repub. Candidates - Tonight C-SPAN @ 6:30ET - TN_Tigers
[quote]Obama flipped NV, CO, NC, VA, OH, IN, FL and I'm probably missing a few others, in 2008[/quote] and IA and NM and NE-02 and almost MO and MT I dont see that much of a swing the other way. This would mean the GOP winning NM, PA, WI, NV, MN, MI and ME-02 with the two squeaker losses be...
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re: (LINK IN OP) VotersFirst Forum - 14 Repub. Candidates - Tonight C-SPAN @ 6:30ET - TN_Tigers
[quote]It's not really a matter of "flipping," it's about having a good candidate with a favorable voter turn out. I think the numbers will finally come down to Earth after Obama.[/quote] I think this is true..usually you have one side with momentum and better turnout models and polling so they t...
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re: (LINK IN OP) VotersFirst Forum - 14 Repub. Candidates - Tonight C-SPAN @ 6:30ET - TN_Tigers
There is a tie scenario(though highly unlikely that NV would go red and not OH as well) GOP- FL, VA, IA, CO, NV Dem- OH, PA, WI...
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re: (LINK IN OP) VotersFirst Forum - 14 Repub. Candidates - Tonight C-SPAN @ 6:30ET - TN_Tigers
[quote]The odds stack so much better for Democrats in every single one of those possible outcomes. [/quote] Yea if you believe my 3 scenarios for the GOP here is what they would look like for the Dems: VA IA -270 VA CO 273 VA OH 282 OH CO 278 CO NV IA 272 VA NV 270 OH IA 275 OH NV 275 ...
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re: Which Republican ticket would be the best to carry key states? - TN_Tigers
[quote]That's the problem, though. The Democrats only have to win one of Colorado, Ohio, Virginia or Florida and they win.[/quote] Obama always had strong holds on the first two as well as IA. HRC's numbers are bad in OH, IA, CO but thats with more of a midterm sample. For the GOP to win t...
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re: (LINK IN OP) VotersFirst Forum - 14 Repub. Candidates - Tonight C-SPAN @ 6:30ET - TN_Tigers
Most likely maps for GOP wins IMO: FL, OH, VA, CO is 275 FL, OH, VA, IA is 272 FL, OH, IA, CO, NV is 274 ...
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re: Which Republican ticket would be the best to carry key states? - TN_Tigers
[quote]Kasich/Rubio Even then, that ticket loses. The path for a Democrat to the White House is about 3000x easier.[/quote] The OH/VA wall is strong for the Dems..Kasich on the ticket makes it manageable ...
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Posts By TN_Tigers
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