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Started By
Message
Why the polls were so wrong..
Posted on 11/4/14 at 11:53 pm
Posted on 11/4/14 at 11:53 pm
Democrats didn't have to leave their homes to take the polls..
7
Posted on 11/4/14 at 11:55 pm to GEAUXmedic
They didn't have an ID
Posted on 11/4/14 at 11:55 pm to GEAUXmedic
Mexicans and blacks were not herded to the polls
Posted on 11/4/14 at 11:57 pm to GEAUXmedic
Yeah. The youth didn't vote. No hip black guy running or any non educated celebrities telling you to vote for dems or die. I laugh at the GOP circle jerk now just as I did the Obama coalition of 2012. It's cyclical both parties stink.
Posted on 11/4/14 at 11:57 pm to GEAUXmedic
How were they wrong? Everyone predicted this. It was like a 90 percent chance. I can't think of one upset
Posted on 11/4/14 at 11:59 pm to GEAUXmedic
Nate Silver was wrong on Kansas and North Carolina amongst the handful of competative races. And, though he got the winner correct in Virginia, the final was way outside his 99% certain range.
Posted on 11/4/14 at 11:59 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:The more serious answer is the polls were less right than they were lucky in 2012. When Romney's GOTV campaign collapsed, it made the leftward skewed polls look suddenly brilliant. So they used similar metrics this time.
Why the polls were so wrong..
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:00 am to NC_Tigah
I only see one wrong, NC and that was back and forth.
Honestly I don't know what you guys are talking about
Honestly I don't know what you guys are talking about
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:00 am to Vegas Bengal
quote:
How were they wrong? Everyone predicted this.
Everyone predicted tight races that leaned Republican in Iowa, Kansas, and Colorado but the Republicans hammered the Democrats in those states.
Plus Kentucky and Georgia, picking off North Carolina, and Virginia being a MUCH closer race than expected.
Don't play dumb.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:00 am to Vegas Bengal
So your saying Maryland, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Wis governor races were the GOP's to lose?
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:01 am to Vegas Bengal
The percentages were off. R's are getting 4-5% more than final poll averages were predicting.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:04 am to Vegas Bengal
They missed the magnitude of victory by a landslide. That is what you seem to be missing.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:05 am to Vegas Bengal
quote:
Vegas Bengal
Trying so desperately to cling to the notion that this is anything but an unmitigated disaster for Democrats.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 12:09 am to Vegas Bengal
quote:
I only see one wrong, NC and that was back and forth.
Look at the Governors races. The polls were off.
Virginia, NC, Ga, La, Kansas Senate estimates were off.
e.g., Cassidy beat polls by 5-7pts in the 3-way
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