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War on the Rocks: "The Coming of the Russian Jihad"
Posted on 12/28/16 at 8:22 pm
Posted on 12/28/16 at 8:22 pm
Frank Hoffman's realist website, War on the Rocks, has allowed Leon Aron to write a 3-part series on "The Coming of the Russian Jihad". The final part is yet to be published, but the first two parts have been:
Part I (9/23/16)
Part II (12/19/16)
I read this about a week ago, and I haven't seen anybody post about it on here, so I thought I'd break the ice, especially since it's in line with other things I've posted about how Assad purposefully fed and cooperated with ISIS. (See " Assad's Henchmen: Here's How We Built ISIS.")
There are also some recent articles on how Erdogan has continually drifted closer to the anti-American Axis, until now he is apparently beginning to enter into a significant alliance with Russia:
NY Post: " How America Got Shut Out of Syria" (12/20)
NY Times: " An Alliance to Worry the West" (12/23)
So it's pretty well established how Syria and Iran have aided and abetted al Qaeda and ISIS, and people post all the time on this board about how Turkey and Saudi Arabia have funded Sunni extremists. Let us now turn to Russia's part in all this...
Note here that the 2,400 number is only taken from Russia proper. If you count the old Soviet republics like Armenia and Kazakhstan, you get far more than the 2,500 figure given from Saudi Arabia, placing the Russian sphere only behind Tunisia in terms of providing manpower to ISIS.
Demographic trends mean that this situation will only get worse. There are different predictions about what Russia's demographics will look like by 2030 or 2050 or so, but none of them look very good. Well, those are unfortunate facts, but nothing to blame the Russian government for, right? Maybe, but Chechnya, however, is another matter...
Yikes. Kadyrov really is an enormous assclown by the way. ( LINK)
Part I (9/23/16)
Part II (12/19/16)
I read this about a week ago, and I haven't seen anybody post about it on here, so I thought I'd break the ice, especially since it's in line with other things I've posted about how Assad purposefully fed and cooperated with ISIS. (See " Assad's Henchmen: Here's How We Built ISIS.")
There are also some recent articles on how Erdogan has continually drifted closer to the anti-American Axis, until now he is apparently beginning to enter into a significant alliance with Russia:
NY Post: " How America Got Shut Out of Syria" (12/20)
NY Times: " An Alliance to Worry the West" (12/23)
So it's pretty well established how Syria and Iran have aided and abetted al Qaeda and ISIS, and people post all the time on this board about how Turkey and Saudi Arabia have funded Sunni extremists. Let us now turn to Russia's part in all this...
quote:
That Russian should be the lingua franca of jihadists from the former Soviet territory is surprising. Many, perhaps most, younger Kyrgyz, Tajiks, and Uzbeks (judging by the gastarbeiters from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan) do not know Russian well or even at all. That Russia is becoming widely-spoken is indicative of the explosive internationalization and the vastly expanded recruitment patterns of what might be called the Russian Jihad based in Russia and former Soviet Central Asia.
With an estimated 2,400 of its citizens fighting with ISIL, Russia is surpassed only by Tunisia and Saudi Arabia in the number of its nationals in the extremist group’s ranks. It is far ahead of the top four European suppliers of ISIL soldiers...
Note here that the 2,400 number is only taken from Russia proper. If you count the old Soviet republics like Armenia and Kazakhstan, you get far more than the 2,500 figure given from Saudi Arabia, placing the Russian sphere only behind Tunisia in terms of providing manpower to ISIS.
quote:
With an estimated 20 million Muslims (14 percent of the population), Russia is the largest Muslim country in Europe outside of Turkey both in absolute terms and as a share of the population. ... Between 1.5 and 2 million migrants have also made Moscow the second largest Muslim city in Europe behind Istanbul.
Demographic trends mean that this situation will only get worse. There are different predictions about what Russia's demographics will look like by 2030 or 2050 or so, but none of them look very good. Well, those are unfortunate facts, but nothing to blame the Russian government for, right? Maybe, but Chechnya, however, is another matter...
quote:
And that “field” is still there. Rightly considering the “pacification” of Chechnya his most important domestic national security achievement, Putin has given free rein to the Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov, who has steadily introduced what might be called “sharia-lite” to his fiefdom, challenging Russian laws and even Russian police. Women have been pressured to wear headscarves in government buildings. In contravention of the country’s Family Code, polygamy and marriage of underage women have been at least tacitly encouraged. Last year against her and her family’s wishes, a 17-year old Chechen girl was forced into a marriage with an already-married local policeman at least thirty years her senior. Kadyrov approved of the arrangement and even attended the wedding.
Yikes. Kadyrov really is an enormous assclown by the way. ( LINK)
8
Posted on 12/28/16 at 8:22 pm to Doc Fenton
But moving on to Part II of the series...
Well that's not good. And I suppose it's understandable that people want to sympathize with the Russians as having a common enemy in radical Wahhabi terrorists. But the Russian government's complicity in Sunni terrorism makes the story more complicated, particularly as it relates to the FSB intentionally exporting Sunni terrorists to Syria (just as Assad intentionally imported them):
But at least Russia is trying to kick Islamic terrorists out of their homeland and shut the door behind them, right? Well, yes, but they are doing a terrible job at controlling their own Muslim terrorist problem, because they have such an awful system of governance. This whole reactionary nationalist farce with promoting imperialist religion is only going to backfire on them.
Conclusion: Globalism is not the problem. Russian-style nationalism is not the answer.
quote:
In this installment, I explore the domestic impact of Russia’s involvement in Syria’s civil war and the strategies deployed by the Russian authorities to contain these effects. I sketch a few other tendencies that might energize and expand the Russian Muslim radical fringe. While virtually all Russian and Central Asian Muslims are Sunnis, Putin has effectively allied himself with Shiites in Syria, Iran, and Iraq. Following the deployment of Russian troops in Syria in September of last year, 55 Saudi Wahhabi clerics called for a jihad against Russia. Soon thereafter, the Islamic State released a Russian-language video threatening Russia, claiming that “the blood will spill like an ocean... soon, very soon.”
Well that's not good. And I suppose it's understandable that people want to sympathize with the Russians as having a common enemy in radical Wahhabi terrorists. But the Russian government's complicity in Sunni terrorism makes the story more complicated, particularly as it relates to the FSB intentionally exporting Sunni terrorists to Syria (just as Assad intentionally imported them):
quote:
The FSB even facilitated travel to Syria, especially for the “men from the forest,” as local jihadists are known in the North Caucasus. Acting on behalf of the FSB were the so-called peregovorshchiki or “negotiators.” One such “negotiator” was said to “guide” several leaders of the local underground from the “forest” to Syria. “Our [terrorist] underground grew weaker, we are happy,” a witness told a Russian reporter. Later on, many local boys who had never taken up arms before followed their older brothers and friends to Syria. “We opened borders, helped them all out and closed the border behind them,” a source in the security services told the International Crisis Group. “Everyone’s happy: they are dying on the path of Allah, and we have no terrorist acts here and are now bombing them in Latakia and Idlib.”
“The traffic light was bright green in the direction of Syria,” commented a Russian journalist. “While Western countries sounded the alarm and drew up the lists of Islamist terrorist organizations, all was quiet in Russia. The [North] Caucasus fighters left for a foreign war.” Russia did not designate ISIL as a terrorist organization until December 2014.
But at least Russia is trying to kick Islamic terrorists out of their homeland and shut the door behind them, right? Well, yes, but they are doing a terrible job at controlling their own Muslim terrorist problem, because they have such an awful system of governance. This whole reactionary nationalist farce with promoting imperialist religion is only going to backfire on them.
quote:
In addition to the return of Russian fighters from Syria, the probability of Russian Muslim radicalization and militancy is heightened by several other developments. There is, to begin with, the continuing position of the Russian Orthodox Church as the country’s de-facto official religion. This is a key element of the “conservative wave” launched by Putin on his return to the presidency in 2012. The Russian president declaring the Church as the “anchor [of] the moral framework of public life and national mores” was bound to be interpreted by many in the Russian Muslim community as an effort to Christianize Russia and is just as likely to cause alienation and anger at best and, at worst, radicalization, especially among younger Muslims.
Such an impact would exacerbate another potentially radicalizing tendency that has affected Western European Muslim communities. Known as the “second generation problem,” the phenomenon has been evident in the demographic characteristics of Western European terrorists, who are overwhelmingly second-generation Muslim immigrants.
Conclusion: Globalism is not the problem. Russian-style nationalism is not the answer.
Posted on 12/28/16 at 8:27 pm to Doc Fenton
Connect the dots for these Premier Trumpski moronskis, Doc.
Posted on 12/28/16 at 8:29 pm to TigerJeff
quote:
TigerJeff
Posted on 12/28/16 at 8:30 pm to Doc Fenton
Can't get past the Neil Diamond image in my head.
War on the rocks Ain't no surprise
War on the rocks Ain't no surprise
Posted on 12/28/16 at 8:31 pm to Doc Fenton
Kadyrov is the puppet of puppets
Posted on 12/28/16 at 8:33 pm to TigerJeff
There isn't really a central premise to rally everything around here, other than to say (A) that the Russians are complicit in facilitating the growth of Sunni terrorism in Syria, and (B) that they may have major problems dealing with Islamic terrorism domestically in the future.
Usually, I write here about my over-arching concern with Russia, which is their troublesome alliance with Iran, and their desire to split Western alliances with propaganda to oppose the ideals free markets and political liberty. But that's not the point here with this thread. Here I'm just relaying some interesting facts and concerns that were raised in a couple of articles from this War on the Rocks website.
Usually, I write here about my over-arching concern with Russia, which is their troublesome alliance with Iran, and their desire to split Western alliances with propaganda to oppose the ideals free markets and political liberty. But that's not the point here with this thread. Here I'm just relaying some interesting facts and concerns that were raised in a couple of articles from this War on the Rocks website.
This post was edited on 12/28/16 at 8:38 pm
Posted on 12/28/16 at 8:35 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
Demographic trends mean that this situation will only get worse. There are different predictions about what Russia's demographics will look like by 2030 or 2050 or so, but none of them look very good. Well, those are unfortunate facts, but nothing to blame the Russian government for, right? Maybe, but Chechnya, however, is another matter...
The demographic problem and what the Russians are doing in Grozny have been my go to responses when anyone suggests that the Russians will lead the West against the "Muslim horde."
The real winner in all of this is the Iranians in my estimation. The key to that has to be what Sistani and his backers do with the PMF when the hostilities in the region cease.
Posted on 12/28/16 at 8:35 pm to Strannix
Indeed. 
Posted on 12/28/16 at 8:37 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
The real winner in all of this is the Iranians in my estimation.
Yeah. Unfortunately. The great white whale of my foreign policy outlook. My own personal El Guapo, if you will.
Posted on 12/28/16 at 8:45 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
But at least Russia is trying to kick Islamic terrorists out of their homeland and shut the door behind them, right? Well, yes, but they are doing a terrible job at controlling their own Muslim terrorist problem, because they have such an awful system of governance. This whole reactionary nationalist farce with promoting imperialist religion is only going to backfire on them.
The Russians already dealt with a "Jihad". This is how Putin made himself credible. Things could get bad again, but if you compare the Russian record in Chechnya during Yeltsin vs Putin, unfortunately liberal federalism failed when compared to rule by the counter-intelligence agents.
I respect Aaron when it comes to critiquing the Putin regime, but of all the things the Russians are doing, dealing with terrorism and despite some deplorable moves like empowering Kadyrov, this has not been one of their failures.
Posted on 12/28/16 at 8:54 pm to OleWar
It certainly hasn't materialized as a domestic failure yet, but it may in the future. That's Aron's thesis, and he might be wrong, but I do think there is something troubling about a Russian strategy that says "let's force all our domestic terrorists to focus on external jihad, so we don't have to deal with them ourselves." That, by the way, is exactly the strategy adopted by Saudi Arabia from about 1995 to 2002, and it didn't work out so well for us.
My concerns are not primarily about what happens inside Russia anyway, but more about how their foreign policy affects the world. I look to see what people Putin calls his allies, and I see Assad and Erdogan, and that seems troubling to me, because it puts him on the wrong side of the Long War against terrorism.
My concerns are not primarily about what happens inside Russia anyway, but more about how their foreign policy affects the world. I look to see what people Putin calls his allies, and I see Assad and Erdogan, and that seems troubling to me, because it puts him on the wrong side of the Long War against terrorism.
Posted on 12/28/16 at 9:07 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
That, by the way, is exactly the strategy adopted by Saudi Arabia from about 1995 to 2002, and it didn't work out so well for us.
Elements of the Saudis have aided and abetted terrorists, the U.S. has aided and abetted terrorists (Libya,Syria). Other than supporting Kurds in reaction to Turks supporting Chechens, I can't think of any hard evidence of the Russians supporting terrorists in the same way*, they have in fact gone out of their way to hunt down and assassinate Chechens in third party countries.
The U.S. was obviously a victim of "Russian Jihad" with the Boston Bombing, but my understanding is that they gave warning that went unheeded.
* Since collapse of USSR
This post was edited on 12/28/16 at 9:09 pm
Posted on 12/28/16 at 9:09 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
There isn't really a central premise to rally everything around here, other than to say (A) that the Russians are complicit in facilitating the growth of Sunni terrorism in Syria
quote:
and (B) that they may have major problems dealing with Islamic terrorism domestically in the future.
They've had a problem with Islam since their borders incorporated Islamic peoples.
This post was edited on 12/28/16 at 9:11 pm
Posted on 12/28/16 at 9:11 pm to Doc Fenton
Sounds like a good time to re-arm and get our rockets up to speed along with nuclear subs.
Posted on 12/28/16 at 9:20 pm to OleWar
quote:
I can't think of any hard evidence of the Russians supporting terrorists in the same way
What do you mean? The article just discussed how the Russians were supporting the export of terrorists in the exact same way that Saudi Arabia had done. Al Qaeda was committing terrorist acts at home against the monarchy, so after 1995, the monarchy bribed them to go away and do their stuff somewhere else. The Muslim terrorists in Russia are a domestic problem, so the FSB started up special programs to facilitate their travel to Syria.
Posted on 12/28/16 at 9:25 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
The Muslim terrorists in Russia are a domestic problem, so the FSB started up special programs to facilitate their travel to Syria.
maybe the Russians get control or at least inside scoop about them that way.
I don't see a long term benefit. maybe the Russians are hoping they will mostly die in battle. maybe they are setting them up.
because if all that happens is that the terrorists get practice, they will come back some day, better than ever. and the issues of the southern republics is not changing any time soon. poverty. adherence to the Koran. real practical issues to be angry about.
Posted on 12/28/16 at 9:41 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
My concerns are not primarily about what happens inside Russia anyway, but more about how their foreign policy affects the world. I look to see what people Putin calls his allies, and I see Assad and Erdogan
Aren't Russia & Turkey going to be natural allies at this point?
They both are the largest Euro gatekeepers bordering the Middle East w/ a similar religious ideology.
With the de-stabilization of the region, I don't blame them for partnering up to prevent an invasion from brewing.
That doesn't mean we cannot take measures to insulate our allies or ourselves from them deflecting that mess to the West.
This post was edited on 12/28/16 at 9:43 pm
Posted on 12/28/16 at 9:44 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
What do you mean?
I mean that either facilitating (which may number in the dozens) or looking the other way is in no way comparable to the Saudi support for jihadist movements and the support of Wahabbist organizations.
Ironically a link in the Aaron article goes to the Chechens with ISIS experience who have formed a battalion to fight against the Russians in the Donbas on behalf of the EU liberal minded Ukrainians.
Posted on 12/28/16 at 9:46 pm to Doc Fenton
The best and luckiest thing that could have happened to Russia was the caliphate, drained the motherland of all those pissed off Chechens. Well thats over now and those pissed off, battle tested boys are coming home.
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