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North Korea Thread -8/14- Un Briefed on Plan to Attack Guam; DPRK Moving IRBM launchers
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:12 am
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:12 am
Live shortwave radio tracking stream:
LINK
5:15 pm:
Yonhap: (URGENT) N. Korean leader briefed on plan to attack near Guam: state TV
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3:40 pm:
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LINK
5:15 pm:
Yonhap: (URGENT) N. Korean leader briefed on plan to attack near Guam: state TV
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3:40 pm:
quote:
@StratSentinel
18m
BREAKING: US satellite observe #DPRK mobile missile launcher movement, intermediate ballistic missile launch prep possible, defense official
Still unconfirmed, Units being moved appear to be related to HS-12 system. This is the same system #DPRK threatened to use against #Guam
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quote:
#DPRK reportedly calling its ambassadors to major countries back to Pyongyang.
SEOUL, Aug. 14 (Yonhap) -- Key North Korean ambassadors overseas are currently back in Pyongyang for a joint meeting, officials here said Monday, as the communist country is drawing unprecedentedly intense condemnation for its nuclear and missile programs from the international community.
"North Korea seems to be hosting what appears to be a meeting of foreign diplomatic missions' chiefs after calling its ambassadors to major countries back to Pyongyang," a government official told Yonhap News Agency.
The ongoing meeting reportedly includes Amb. Ji Jae-ryong, Amb. Ja Song-nam and Amb. Kim Hyong-jun, North Korea's top envoys to China, the United Nations and Russia, respectively.
But how many more ambassadors are participating in the meeting is unclear, the official said.
quote:
N. Korea seems to be prepared for fresh ICBM test: expert
Recent satellite photos suggests that North Korea is preparing for fresh submarine-based missile tests, an expert has said, amid heightened tension between the U.S. and North Korea over the communist state's successful launch of an inter-continental ballistic missile.
Referring to photographs posted on Aug. 11 on 38 North, a U.S. website specializing in North Korea analysis, Joseph Bermudez, a North Korea specialist, claimed that they could indicate preparations for a new test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
"Recent commercial satellite imagery reveals several developments suggesting that North Korea may be accelerating the development of the sea-based leg of its nuclear forces," he said
quote:
@NoonInKorea
Meanwhile KJU hasn't been seen publicly in 2 weeks & SK media note he usually disappears before missile provocations
KJU's pattern has been to keep out of sight for weeks & then show up at launch sites to show his intimate involvement with missile launches
quote:
@W7VOA
#DPRK reportedly calling its ambassadors to major countries back to Pyongyang.
There is to be a @POTUS-@AbeShinzo phone call 21:30 EDT Monday, according to @WhiteHouse.
JCS Chairman Gen. Dunford and USFK commander Gen. Brooks to hold news conf. in a little under 5 hours.
quote:
@IntelCrab
RQ-4 Global Hawk on the tarmac of #YokotaAirBase.
@MilcomMP
3h
Ramping up surveillance. Must be closer to an event.
quote:
@Strat2Intel 4h4 hours ago
More
I have never seen two Air Koryo flights up at once. One is going to Beijing, the other to Vladivostok, Likely with ambassadorial staff.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 5:45 pm
8
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:15 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Recent satellite photos suggests that North Korea is preparing for fresh submarine-based missile tests, an expert has said, amid heightened tension between the U.S. and North Korea over the communist state's successful launch of an inter-continental ballistic missile.
That would be a more frightening development than anything else so far.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:18 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
That would be a more frightening development than anything else so far.
Do we have anything reasonably effective for submarine tracking? I don't know how anyone could 'patrol' the entire fricking Pacific. While intel may know that a particular group or vessel is en route, they can't possibly know their path, right? They could show up outside of San Diego with nary a warning.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:22 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
That would be a more frightening development than anything else so far.
I'm not certain how effective an EMp hit on the west coast would be, but panic and no power in a populated area like LA would be catastrophic...
The US has an EMP exercise planned on or about the 23rd
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:23 am to HempHead
quote:
reasonably effective for submarine tracking
Yes but...
quote:
know how anyone could 'patrol' the entire fricking Pacific
This is also true...
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:24 am to GEAUXmedic
That drone looks like a dildo with wings.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:25 am to beerJeep
quote:
That drone looks like a dildo with wings.
....they don't typically have wings?
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:26 am to HempHead
quote:
Do we have anything reasonably effective for submarine tracking? I don't know how anyone could 'patrol' the entire fricking Pacific. While intel may know that a particular group or vessel is en route, they can't possibly know their path, right? They could show up outside of San Diego with nary a warning.
It is my understanding the DPRK subs are very old and diesel powered with a comparatively short ability to travel deep underwater for a significant length of time. I would think that would limit their surprise potential somewhat, especially long range.
But they have quite a few of them.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:31 am to AndyCBR
quote:
are very old and diesel powered with a comparatively short ability to travel deep underwater for a significant length of time. I would think that would limit their surprise potential somewhat, especially long range.
But they have quite a few of them.
All true, but we don't have the infrastructure to track them all...they could send all 40 at the west coast, we'd stop maybe 25 if we acted right now...they probably don't have 40 nuke launch equipped either
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:31 am to HempHead
quote:I'm sure we have stuff that I don't know about, but I do know that tracking subs is one of the hardest thing in warfare to do. And apparently these diesel subs are quieter than nuclear subs.
I don't know how anyone could 'patrol' the entire fricking Pacific. While intel may know that a particular group or vessel is en route, they can't possibly know their path, right?
quote:I'm doubtful that a NK sub has the range to get all the way across the ocean. They could probably park one off of Japan or Guam though.
They could show up outside of San Diego with nary a warning.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:38 am to GeauxxxTigers23
Wondering how many drones do you believe we could deploy at one time for a strike on North Korea? I'm imagining hundreds of drones with bombers at the same time would be some shock and awe on the DMZ?
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:41 am to Rakim
quote:The vast majority of our drones would be shot down easily and quickly by even North Korean air defenses. But I suppose if we didn't mind sacrificing them they could soak up a lot of anti-aircraft missiles before the manned bombers went in.
Wondering how many drones do you believe we could deploy at one time for a strike on North Korea? I'm imagining hundreds of drones with bombers at the same time would be some shock and awe on the DMZ?
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:50 am to GeauxxxTigers23
I was wondering about how many we could actually fly at one time? Anyway I read China has around 40,000 and plans on beefing up to several hundred thousand. The clone wars have begun.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:56 am to Rakim
quote:
Wondering how many drones do you believe we could deploy at one time for a strike on North Korea? I'm imagining hundreds of drones with bombers at the same time would be some shock and awe on the DMZ
Just gleaning info from past and published military magazines...an all out war, as a pseudo-surprise by the Americans means
2x Carrier groups
2x Fighter Wings in the RoK
3x Bomber Wings
Roughly 6-8 fighter wings within a day...
Vs.
Thousands of med range guns and flack...
It would open with the elimination of anti aircraft sites along the weaker side of the border, followed by the rest as the DPRK begins to pound fortified positions across the border, followed by Seoul...
Within hours, bombers begin a non-stop infiltration at high altitude and crush many of the exposed targets and guns as the DPRK go underground...
Thousands of northern troops get slaughtered by Naval fire until the northern shooting stops two+ days later...
Roughly 200k in Seoul lose their lives along with a handful of RoK defenders...
Within a week, we cease to be dealing with obvious DPRK activities and are forced to handle the largest humanitarian crisis in decades.
The if the loons in the north hold power of their assets, at this point they may do the unthinkable and nuke PYongyang with occupying troops just settling in...
If not, the path to reunification will be open.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 12:58 am
Posted on 8/14/17 at 12:59 am to IceTiger
I continue to believe China will be involved moving in from the north. There are 100k troops on the border now. They would help in securing the nuclear facilities and I'm thinking NK army wouldn't engage them. Obviously we handle targets and bombing runs on army, bridges, communications and DMZ.
Biggest problem for US is securing the nuclear facilities. We could get troops in but reinforcements and supply lines is the problem in every simulation hence China.
Biggest problem for US is securing the nuclear facilities. We could get troops in but reinforcements and supply lines is the problem in every simulation hence China.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 1:01 am
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:03 am to Rakim
quote:I'm not convinced China gets involved. Especially on our side. I just don't see the benefit in it. I think they'd be perfectly fine just keeping their 100K troops on the border and turning the refugees around.
I continue to believe China will be involved moving in from the north.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:04 am to GeauxxxTigers23
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:06 am to Rakim
quote:
They would help in securing the nuclear facilities
All access is DEEP underground...they've spent decades tunnelling the north...
They are pretty amazing at it actually.
We can blow up whatever we want and the people in chargeneral will have to be flushed from underground fighting room to room and tunnel to tunnel
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:07 am to GeauxxxTigers23
The way to protect Seoul is by use of neutron weapons..airbursts over the artillery sites in range of the capital would kill the gun crews while doing little damage, and with almost zero fallout.
We have thermobaric weapons to deal with the underground sites, the same weapons that should have been used at Tora Bora
We have thermobaric weapons to deal with the underground sites, the same weapons that should have been used at Tora Bora
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 1:09 am
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:08 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
@DEFCONWSALERTS South Korea states North Korea has not yet perfected its re-entry vehicle capabilities, in contrast to the recent CIA statement.
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