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Started By
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1
Posted on 6/20/17 at 4:39 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:He was down in the Trafalgar poll, which I'm inclined to give more weight since they were the only state polls that called the Midwest firewall break
Iosh you are a complete fool
Ossof will win. He has never trailed in a poll
Posted on 6/20/17 at 4:41 pm to SlowFlowPro
PredictIt charges a 10% fee on profits and another 5% at withdrawal. It's fun for niche markets but I wouldn't try to make a living there.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 4:42 pm to Iosh
i think i was giving 10x the winning anyway and it was wrong wrong. i deleted the post
Posted on 6/20/17 at 4:42 pm to SlowFlowPro
Told you that sig would be evergreen
Posted on 6/20/17 at 4:43 pm to Iosh
Iosh you are going to be poorer tonight than you are right now
Posted on 6/20/17 at 4:43 pm to Iosh
i fully admitted i was prone to make a mistake due to speed-induced exuberance
Posted on 6/20/17 at 4:44 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:I'd prefer an Ossoff victory so I consider this a hedge. Like my bet on Trump.
Iosh you are going to be poorer tonight than you are right now
Posted on 6/20/17 at 4:47 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:Trust me,
Ossof will win. He has never trailed in a poll
Hillary
This post was edited on 6/20/17 at 5:25 pm
Posted on 6/20/17 at 4:52 pm to Iosh
so its 82/18
$18 of thomas = 100 shares (so 0EV)
$82 of kennedy = 141.4 shares
and yeah i know there are fees but i'm just talking about the betting hedge so the fees are irrelevant (b/c they'd apply regardless and keeping 95% after being wrong > keeping 0% after being wrong)
*ETA: if you shift it to 80/20, you basically get 111 shares for Thomas so you get that extra 10%
$18 of thomas = 100 shares (so 0EV)
$82 of kennedy = 141.4 shares
and yeah i know there are fees but i'm just talking about the betting hedge so the fees are irrelevant (b/c they'd apply regardless and keeping 95% after being wrong > keeping 0% after being wrong)
*ETA: if you shift it to 80/20, you basically get 111 shares for Thomas so you get that extra 10%
This post was edited on 6/20/17 at 4:54 pm
Posted on 6/20/17 at 6:01 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Free money on PredictIt by SlowFlowPro
shite if you want free money,
who will be the next USSC justice to leave
kennedy is at $0.58
that's a 40% return on about the surest bet in DC
I should go bet on this. Mainly due to my gambling luck at anything but blackjack it would ensure that RBG died tomorrow
Posted on 6/20/17 at 6:03 pm to SlowFlowPro
Stop using speed then.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 6:06 pm to PsychTiger
it was just my daily afternoon coffee 
Posted on 6/20/17 at 6:07 pm to SlowFlowPro
I believe you. :wink:
Posted on 6/20/17 at 8:26 pm to elposter
Handel backers - be a little careful - @nate_cohn keeps talking about a mail in portion that is unexpected and favourable to Ossoff.
Just a heads up. I'm largely out of Handel at this point.
Just a heads up. I'm largely out of Handel at this point.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 8:33 pm to joshnorris14
Ossoff has tanked to .08
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