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Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:38 pm
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:38 pm
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/10/23 at 4:14 am
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

Nate Silver isnt the wiz kid you made him out to be. no need to defend and apologize. He's totally discredited.




NO.

the clown, buckeye, will be here soon to defend nate plastic.

and then tell you how it wasnt his fault.
Posted by Adam Banks
District 5
Member since Sep 2009
31781 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:40 pm to
Just made a thread on this but it's probably to page 3 now

There was a lib who made a not so subtle snarky thread about how many people you know who have landlines to discredit the poll prior to the election
This post was edited on 11/10/16 at 12:42 pm
Posted by Homesick Tiger
Greenbrier, AR
Member since Nov 2006
54202 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:42 pm to
quote:

Nate Silver isnt the wiz kid


I read one of his articles trying to justify himself. He said if only one in a hundred Trump voters had switched their vote to Clinton, she would have won.

This guy could try to spin a picture of a turd into a rose.
Posted by LSURulzSEC
Lake Charles via Oakdale
Member since Aug 2004
77292 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:42 pm to
Nate has been weighed, he has been measured, and he has been found wanting...
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:45 pm to
The pollsters are defending themselves exactly as I predicted

Silver was so defensive about any questioning of polls and his model. His fanboys just pointed to 2012 and the the later primaries...bozos
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:47 pm to
even if that were true..."if what didn't happen DID happen, I was right"


"it's true, I said I was 80% certain Hillary would win, but I also said I was 20% certain that Trump would win so you see, I was actually right"

Posted by Homesick Tiger
Greenbrier, AR
Member since Nov 2006
54202 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:51 pm to
Yep. Reminds me of the Arkansas weatherman I as watching a few years back - "and tomorrow's forecast is a 60% chance of 30% snow."

I chewed on that for a while and never did get it digested.
Posted by RobbBobb
Matt Flynn, BCS MVP
Member since Feb 2007
27856 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:52 pm to
quote:

Nate Silver isnt the wiz kid you made him out to be.

People defend him by saying he isn't a pollster. Well, OK, then his analysis sucks.

He missed on the 2014 midterms
on Brexit
on Trumps nomination
on the Cubs
on Pres. Donald Trump

He attempts to shape results through his bias. His 15 min is over


Oh, and Frank Luntz.
Posted by tagatose
South Carolina
Member since Oct 2005
2007 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:53 pm to
Nate Dumbass has been destroyed. He has no credibility anymore.

Can't wait for the heckling and mocking he'll get when he publishes anything.

Dude should look for another line of work like weather forecasting.
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

People defend him by saying he isn't a pollster
he rates them and weighs them and he defends his model against pollster inaccuracies

so there's really no defense.

he'll always nail the later primaries because the variables become fewer and you have data to go on.

he's a sports nerd who nailed one presidential election that everyone and their mom could have. Joe Scarborough was the only one calling out his bullshite in 2012.

I predicted 47/50 states without data at all (well except NC, I went pretty hardcore into that one and actually put a number on it)

he's a total fricking fraud.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35236 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:04 pm to
quote:

the clown, buckeye, will be here soon to defend nate plastic.
Present.
quote:

and then tell you how it wasnt his fault.
What was he supposed to do? Pretend the data weren't leaning towards a Clinton victory. Look at how much more realistic their models were compared to everybody else.


In fact, 538 had two articles (one in September and one a week before election) discussing the real possibility of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the Electoral College.

Besides, what about in 2012 where you were predicting a Romney victory with 300+ electoral votes? As a statistician yourself, aren't you critical of your misses as well?
This post was edited on 11/10/16 at 1:08 pm
Posted by Clyde Tipton
Planet Earth
Member since Dec 2007
38719 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:08 pm to
quote:

Trafalgar


Any possibility this ends up being the name of some erroneous frog god?
Posted by ManBearTiger
BRLA
Member since Jun 2007
21827 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:19 pm to
Nate Poo
Posted by Midget Death Squad
Meme Magic
Member since Oct 2008
24465 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

buckeye_vol



Posted by tagatose
South Carolina
Member since Oct 2005
2007 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:23 pm to
quote:

buckeye_vol

quote:

Nate

Posted by stat19
Member since Feb 2011
29350 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:32 pm to
quote:

Nate Silver isnt the wiz kid you made him out to be.


If I recall correctly, he tweeted or announced some other way that Trump had won the election around 8:30 CST.

I think he went dark for a while after that.

I haven't slept much since Tuesday night, so it may all be running together.

ETA: Let me be clear, I'm not defending this clown. He is certainly a DNC surrogate.
I'm saying he was the first clown to admit Trump won and he got it wrong. It was almost like Josh Chamberlains last post in 2012.
This post was edited on 11/10/16 at 1:35 pm
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:55 pm to
At 8:30 I knew he won, and I'm an idiot.

We didn't need Nate to tell us what we were seeing with our eyes. Also, he just said it. It wasn't his model. It wasn't a write up. Anyway at 8:30 on the night of, it's way too late to undo all of his defensive blustering
This post was edited on 11/10/16 at 1:57 pm
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35236 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:59 pm to
quote:

Midget death squad
quote:

tagatose
What is so funny? He gave Trump an almost 30% chance of winning and was criticized by many on the left for giving Trump that chance. He even discussed the possibility of the Popular Vote-EC split that occured, and gave that single scenario a better chance of occurring than most other models gave Trump winning across all possible outcomes.

The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing

Now unless your criticisms are Nassim Taleb's criticism that the data would be better modeled as a Weiner Process/Brownian Motion/Stochastic process--in which case the even election model (for every election) would hover around 50/50 until right before the election--then what are your criticisms?
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 11/10/16 at 2:01 pm to
quote:

It's close, but as predicted in May, right now the "tipping point state" of the 2016 election is Pennsylvania.


they're peacocking about this
This post was edited on 11/10/16 at 2:02 pm
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