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Started By
Message
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Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:38 pm
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:38 pm
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/10/23 at 4:14 am
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:39 pm to DelU249
quote:
Nate Silver isnt the wiz kid you made him out to be. no need to defend and apologize. He's totally discredited.
NO.
the clown, buckeye, will be here soon to defend nate plastic.
and then tell you how it wasnt his fault.
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:40 pm to DelU249
Just made a thread on this but it's probably to page 3 now
There was a lib who made a not so subtle snarky thread about how many people you know who have landlines to discredit the poll prior to the election
There was a lib who made a not so subtle snarky thread about how many people you know who have landlines to discredit the poll prior to the election
This post was edited on 11/10/16 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:42 pm to DelU249
quote:
Nate Silver isnt the wiz kid
I read one of his articles trying to justify himself. He said if only one in a hundred Trump voters had switched their vote to Clinton, she would have won.
This guy could try to spin a picture of a turd into a rose.
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:42 pm to DelU249
Nate has been weighed, he has been measured, and he has been found wanting...
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:45 pm to CptBengal
The pollsters are defending themselves exactly as I predicted
Silver was so defensive about any questioning of polls and his model. His fanboys just pointed to 2012 and the the later primaries...bozos
Silver was so defensive about any questioning of polls and his model. His fanboys just pointed to 2012 and the the later primaries...bozos
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:47 pm to Homesick Tiger
even if that were true..."if what didn't happen DID happen, I was right"
"it's true, I said I was 80% certain Hillary would win, but I also said I was 20% certain that Trump would win so you see, I was actually right"
"it's true, I said I was 80% certain Hillary would win, but I also said I was 20% certain that Trump would win so you see, I was actually right"
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:51 pm to DelU249
Yep. Reminds me of the Arkansas weatherman I as watching a few years back - "and tomorrow's forecast is a 60% chance of 30% snow."
I chewed on that for a while and never did get it digested.
I chewed on that for a while and never did get it digested.
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:52 pm to DelU249
quote:
Nate Silver isnt the wiz kid you made him out to be.
People defend him by saying he isn't a pollster. Well, OK, then his analysis sucks.
He missed on the 2014 midterms
on Brexit
on Trumps nomination
on the Cubs
on Pres. Donald Trump
He attempts to shape results through his bias. His 15 min is over
Oh, and Frank Luntz.
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:53 pm to DelU249
Nate Dumbass has been destroyed. He has no credibility anymore.
Can't wait for the heckling and mocking he'll get when he publishes anything.
Dude should look for another line of work like weather forecasting.
Can't wait for the heckling and mocking he'll get when he publishes anything.
Dude should look for another line of work like weather forecasting.
Posted on 11/10/16 at 12:58 pm to RobbBobb
quote:he rates them and weighs them and he defends his model against pollster inaccuracies
People defend him by saying he isn't a pollster
so there's really no defense.
he'll always nail the later primaries because the variables become fewer and you have data to go on.
he's a sports nerd who nailed one presidential election that everyone and their mom could have. Joe Scarborough was the only one calling out his bullshite in 2012.
I predicted 47/50 states without data at all (well except NC, I went pretty hardcore into that one and actually put a number on it)
he's a total fricking fraud.
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:04 pm to CptBengal
quote:Present.
the clown, buckeye, will be here soon to defend nate plastic.
quote:What was he supposed to do? Pretend the data weren't leaning towards a Clinton victory. Look at how much more realistic their models were compared to everybody else.
and then tell you how it wasnt his fault.
In fact, 538 had two articles (one in September and one a week before election) discussing the real possibility of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the Electoral College.
Besides, what about in 2012 where you were predicting a Romney victory with 300+ electoral votes? As a statistician yourself, aren't you critical of your misses as well?
This post was edited on 11/10/16 at 1:08 pm
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:08 pm to DelU249
quote:
Trafalgar
Any possibility this ends up being the name of some erroneous frog god?
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:23 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
buckeye_vol
quote:
Nate
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:32 pm to DelU249
quote:
Nate Silver isnt the wiz kid you made him out to be.
If I recall correctly, he tweeted or announced some other way that Trump had won the election around 8:30 CST.
I think he went dark for a while after that.
I haven't slept much since Tuesday night, so it may all be running together.
ETA: Let me be clear, I'm not defending this clown. He is certainly a DNC surrogate.
I'm saying he was the first clown to admit Trump won and he got it wrong. It was almost like Josh Chamberlains last post in 2012.
This post was edited on 11/10/16 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:55 pm to stat19
At 8:30 I knew he won, and I'm an idiot.
We didn't need Nate to tell us what we were seeing with our eyes. Also, he just said it. It wasn't his model. It wasn't a write up. Anyway at 8:30 on the night of, it's way too late to undo all of his defensive blustering
We didn't need Nate to tell us what we were seeing with our eyes. Also, he just said it. It wasn't his model. It wasn't a write up. Anyway at 8:30 on the night of, it's way too late to undo all of his defensive blustering
This post was edited on 11/10/16 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 11/10/16 at 1:59 pm to tagatose
quote:
Midget death squad
quote:What is so funny? He gave Trump an almost 30% chance of winning and was criticized by many on the left for giving Trump that chance. He even discussed the possibility of the Popular Vote-EC split that occured, and gave that single scenario a better chance of occurring than most other models gave Trump winning across all possible outcomes.
tagatose
The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing
Now unless your criticisms are Nassim Taleb's criticism that the data would be better modeled as a Weiner Process/Brownian Motion/Stochastic process--in which case the even election model (for every election) would hover around 50/50 until right before the election--then what are your criticisms?
Posted on 11/10/16 at 2:01 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
It's close, but as predicted in May, right now the "tipping point state" of the 2016 election is Pennsylvania.
they're peacocking about this
This post was edited on 11/10/16 at 2:02 pm
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