I was just about to post this Otto. FWIW, Nate says that this pollster has had good results in the past.
I'm just going to repost this:
1) Poll of Registered Voters, not likely voters
2) Of those registered voters polled, 30% are hispanic.
3) Hispanics make up 30% of Arizona's population
4) Hispanics only make up like 20% of Arizonas registered voters
5) Hispanics in Arizona have never made up more than 18% of actual voters in the state
6) 24% of Hispanics, 26% of Democrats, and only 14% of Republicans say they most likely won't vote.
7) Obama only gets 44% in a poll that is 30% Hispanic. Yea, he's gonna win Arizona.
8) The poll is bunk for a large number of other reasons as well.