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Are Stephen Curry's on/off court numbers inflated?
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:22 pm
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:22 pm
Because the Warriors often had big leads in the 4th quarter and Curry would sit out the rest of the game, are his on/off numbers inflated due to the many garbage time minutes the Warriors played?
That would be 3rd stringers playing or 2nd stringers who aren't giving it their all because the game is wrapped up.
That would make it look like when he's "off the court" that the offense isn't that great. But the offensive numbers are brought down a lot by the garbage minutes.
That would be 3rd stringers playing or 2nd stringers who aren't giving it their all because the game is wrapped up.
That would make it look like when he's "off the court" that the offense isn't that great. But the offensive numbers are brought down a lot by the garbage minutes.
This post was edited on 4/20/15 at 1:28 pm
7
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:29 pm to PrimeTime Money
It's impossible to know for sure, but I've seen plenty of times where the Warriors have blown big leads benching their better players. Then Curry checks in, and the onslaught ensues.
This post was edited on 4/20/15 at 1:53 pm
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:32 pm to PrimeTime Money
I think you could make the argument if the opponents benched their starters. But not because GS doesn't bench Curry.
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:41 pm to GeauxColonels
quote:I'm not getting what you're saying.
I think you could make the argument if the opponents benched their starters. But not because GS doesn't bench Curry.
Curry only plays 32 minutes per game because the first and second stringers often build up such a big lead that he (and other starters) can afford to sit a lot of minutes in the 4th quarter.
Sometimes he doesn't play the 4th at all.
The Warriors clear their bench often at the end of games.
Those 3rd stringers aren't going to do well. They might have a 20 point lead when Curry left the game and win by 10. So those 3rd stringers in garbage time will be -10.
Those garbage time numbers game after game add up to make it seem like when Curry is off the court, the team does much worse. But those garbage time minutes don't matter.
What matters is the difference between when he's on and when he's off when the game is still on the line.
This post was edited on 4/20/15 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:42 pm to PrimeTime Money
i think his numbers are inflated bc hes on a stacked team.
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:48 pm to PrimeTime Money
That just goes to show how pivotal he is to the team. Some might even say valuable. He might be the most valuable player. If only they gave out an award for that.
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:49 pm to LSUTIGER in TEXAS
quote:Well, if he's on a stacked team, his on/off numbers might not necessarily be amazing.
i think his numbers are inflated bc hes on a stacked team.
When he sits, the team might still be really good, but not quite as good.
But at the end of the game when the 3rd stringers come in and the game is already decided, they really bring the numbers down.
So the gap between when he's on and when he's off grows because the 3rd stringers bring the bottom down lower.
Because he's on such a good team, and they build such big leads, the 3rd stringers get a lot of garbage time minutes and causes the on/off number to grow larger than nearly every other team in the league.
This post was edited on 4/20/15 at 1:51 pm
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:50 pm to SwaggerCopter
quote:I seem to recall this happening
but I've seen plenty of times where the Warriors have blown big leads benching there better players. Then Curry checks in, and the onslaught ensues.
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:50 pm to PrimeTime Money
What point are you trying to make? It seems you're dancing around what you really want to say.
This post was edited on 4/20/15 at 1:51 pm
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:51 pm to GeauxColonels
quote:
I think you could make the argument if the opponents benched their starters. But not because GS doesn't bench Curry.
Yep, this is just a not-so-subtle argument for Harden to win the MVP.
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:52 pm to boom roasted
quote:
What point are you trying to make? It seems you're dancing around what you really want to say.
He's saying LeBron deserves the MVP.
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:53 pm to boom roasted
quote:That the on/off numbers may not be very accurate when talking about the Warriors compared to other teams.
What point are you trying to make?
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:53 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
Well, if he's on a stacked team, his on/off numbers might not necessarily be amazing.
When he sits, the team might still be really good, but not quite as good.
But at the end of the game when the 3rd stringers come in and the game is already decided, they really bring the numbers down.
So the gap between when he's on and when he's off grows because the 3rd stringers bring the bottom down lower.
Because he's on such a good team, and they build such big leads, the 3rd stringers get a lot of garbage time minutes and causes the on/off number to grow larger than nearly every other team in the league.
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:56 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:Well he led the league in real + - which is meant to control for the other players--teammates and opponents--while on the court. Given that he has has a sizeable lead, even if it was inflated a bit, he most likely had the most positive impact on the point differential across the league this year.
Because the Warriors often had big leads in the 4th quarter and Curry would sit out the rest of the game, are his on/off numbers inflated due to the many garbage time minutes the Warriors played?
That would be 3rd stringers playing or 2nd stringers who aren't giving it their all because the game is wrapped up.
That would make it look like when he's "off the court" that the offense isn't that great. But the offensive numbers are brought down a lot by the garbage minutes.
Real Plus Minus
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:56 pm to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:It's not about that.
Yep, this is just a not-so-subtle argument for Harden to win the MVP.
I've heard the on/off argument used when talking about Curry, and it made me think that it may not be as it seems on the surface.
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:58 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
It's not about that.
Posted on 4/20/15 at 1:58 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:i wonder if the garbage time minutes is the overall problem. his team is so talented, they collectively jump out to a big lead. when youre up by 30 in the 4th, it doesnt matter whos on the court- 3rd teamers/2nd teamers/starters- the minutes dont carry the same focus and intensity, ultimately skewing the numbers bc curry is on the bench in garbage time.
Well, if he's on a stacked team, his on/off numbers might not necessarily be amazing.
When he sits, the team might still be really good, but not quite as good.
But at the end of the game when the 3rd stringers come in and the game is already decided, they really bring the numbers down.
So the gap between when he's on and when he's off grows because the 3rd stringers bring the bottom down lower.
Because he's on such a good team, and they build such big leads, the 3rd stringers get a lot of garbage time minutes and causes the on/off number to grow larger than nearly every other team in the league.
Posted on 4/20/15 at 2:00 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:But that stat doesn't take into account the difference made when that player sits.
Well he led the league in real + - which is meant to control for the other players--teammates and opponents--while on the court. Given that he has has a sizeable lead, even if it was inflated a bit, he most likely had the most positive impact on the point differential across the league this year
Posted on 4/20/15 at 2:02 pm to LSUTIGER in TEXAS
quote:That's exactly my point.
i wonder if the garbage time minutes is the overall problem. his team is so talented, they collectively jump out to a big lead. when youre up by 30 in the 4th, it doesnt matter whos on the court- 3rd teamers/2nd teamers/starters- the minutes dont carry the same focus and intensity, ultimately skewing the numbers bc curry is on the bench in garbage time.
Posted on 4/20/15 at 2:04 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
That's exactly my point.
It's an extremely weak point that can be neither supported nor refuted because it is rooted purely in conjecture.
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