re: How Many Movies Will Hit The $1 Billion Mark This Year

In my opinion the last Mission Impossible, Ghost Protocol, was the best one out of the entire series. I have hopes for the new one.

Jurassic looks like it may suffer from being too over the top, but I have to see it regardless. I own a chrome box set, I cannot not see it.

Avengers will break it especially after how amazing Winter Soldier was. People trust Marvel to absolutely deliver. Star Wars looks like it's gonna be real good. Both of those are gonna break 1B.

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Star Wars looks like it's gonna be real good

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I think once the new trailer hits in a couple of weeks, anticipation is really going to start building. Notice the last trailer was just over a minute, didn't have space, didn't have the original cast, and was really just a vehicle to show off the spirit and style of the movie.

I'm going to predict that if Disney markets it correctly (and I have no reason to believe they won't) and the early word of mouth is positive, it will be the highest grossing movie ever. It has too much going for it.

1. Brand recognition

2. The original cast. it's been 30 years since we've seen han, luke and leia...and we were told by the actors, lucas and everyone else that we'd never see them again. It felt like 30 years in 99 when the phantom menace was released. If you're an adult aged 30, not only have you never seen them together on the big screen in a new adventure, you've never had the opportunity. Think about that. The people that saw the originals in theaters are anywhere from 45-70

3. They are being made with utter disdain for the prequels - actors, director, producer, gary Kurtz, etc. have all made it an emphasis when discussing the movie (that they can't talk about) that the effects are "practical", "retro" and that there was very little green screen used in the movie (aside from the next part)

4. Andy Serkis - even though he's not a mainstream name, everyone knows about Gollum and Caesar, and the idea of him playing an alien character in Star Wars will create a lot of added interest. Yoda as a puppet in empire is still amazingly real...imagine what serkis is going to do...and the actor's responses to him will be genuine because he acts and voices on set

5. December 18th - Titanic anyone? Avatar? there's no hobbit, there's nothing in the months of November or December that I know of, that will even be able to compete with Star Wars.

6. DISNEY - as much as I do not like the avenger movies, if there is one great thing I can say about them it is that Disney seems to have marketing down to a fricking science, and is great at building anticipation.

hunger games absolutely sucks (not that my opinion matters, plenty of people like it for whatever reason)...I'm not denying its brand appeal, but its not even in the same stratosphere as "star wars"...and like you said "3 weeks before it", and if you haven't seen the hunger games 3 weeks after its release, then its incredibly unlikely that your choice between star wars and the hunger games is going to be any kind of tough decision as you're unlikely to be some huge hunger games fan that hasn't seen the movie nearly a month after the release.

If the avengers or TDK were on the ticket, then star wars would have some serious competition for those dollars, but I don't see the substitute factor of the hunger games as being a material threat. If you're going to see the hunger games on December 18th, then its most likely because star wars was sold out.

now the cast has box office appeal, moreso than mark Hamill, Harrison ford and carrie fisher...but when you put those names in the context of the particular movie they're starring in, I think those names carry box office appeal to match.

no, I got it...I was just expanding on that point...and you're right, it will make a billion no matter.

I'm talking about its potential to be the highest grossing film ever. If hunger games opened on the same weekend, or one week before or after, I wouldn't like its chances...3 weeks before, I don't see that competing for dollars at all. Abrams seems to be pretty good at marketing himself. I'm going to be interested to see how the marketing campaign unfolds. Cloverfield was brilliantly marketed (and I'm not sure if abrams had a hand in that) and the avengers is a case study in brilliant marketing strategy. I'm also curious to see what kind of effect the prequels will have on the public anticipation...do people feel burned out on star wars? or does the non lucas, original cast element appeal to the average consumer (obviously it appeals to the core base)

if you're looking at potential for breaking records, I would put money on star wars over the avengers...but that's me. Avengers did so far beyond what I would've imagined when it was released. I just didn't realize the anticipation factor, and I thought marvel's B and C team couldn't out perform their A team...couldn't have been more wrong

when is that one releasing? The whole sony hack revealed that the 3rd act of spectre was a disaster, and the entire script was leaked as well...I think.

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Other than Star Wars, what are the other four?

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Hunger Games final installment, Spectre, The Martian (Matt Damon, Kate Mara; based on a best seller), & The Good Dinosaur (New PIXAR film)

Not to mention Creed (new Rocky film), Sisters (Tina Fey & Amy Poeller), The Peanuts Movie, In the Heart of the Sea (Chris Hemsworth), and the new Scorsese film "Silence"

ETA: Not saying that the new Star Wars won't gross over $1 bil because of the competition. It definitely will. I'm just saying it will be hard for any other big movie coming out at the end of the year to break a billion because of all the competition.

I don't think Jurassic World gets close to a one billion.

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With a release date of November 20, sandwiched between Spectre and Star Wars VII, I do not see Hunger Games being a billion film.

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It's not ideal timing, but it's the last film in the franchise. The people that see it are going to see it regardless of when it comes out. It's not the kind of movie a family or couple goes to the theater one day and picks to go see on a whim just b/c they went to the movies to pick a movie to watch once they get there.

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What are the odds Furious 7 remains the top grossing movie of 2015, and who the hell thought that was even going to be a discussion?

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Zero.

JW is on a fricking rampage, and is set to beat F7's "fastest to a billion" by almost a full week.