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Message
Reasons for Optimism in 2015 (Not for the Faint of Heart)
Posted on 2/16/15 at 1:16 am
Posted on 2/16/15 at 1:16 am
#1 - Jalen Mills, Lamar Louis, Jerald Hawkins, Vadal Alexander, Travin Dural, and Dillon Gordon,
20 LSU underclassmen have declared for the NFL draft in the last 3 years. Thanks to the new CBA, we saw the effects of the mass exodus on the defensive side of the ball in 2012, where SIX underclassmen defenders were taken in the first 3 Rounds of the NFL draft... and again on the offensive side of the ball in 2013 with the departures of FIVE more underclassmen offensive players who each made significant contributions in their rookie years. As a departure from this trend, the 2015 Tigers return between 15-17 starters from last year's 2014 team, the most since the 2007 NC season. The return of the aforementioned players will be critical to the success of this year's Tiger team moreso than any other factor.
Special praise to all players who would forego the NFL Draft to return this year.
#2 SEC Cycles and the Schedule
As LSU faithful, we know firsthand the pain that comes with breaking in inexperienced QBs. To that end, of the 4 teams who finished above LSU in the 2014 division standings, 3 will be preparing new signal-callers to face the SEC gauntlet. The fourth, Mississippi State's Dak Prescott, will contend with replacing 7 starters on each side of the ball. In reflection of the 2014 meeting, it will now be LSU who travels to StarkVegas with a team of seasoned players facing a young team very early in the season.
Having drawn teams with a combined 2014 SEC record of 9-7 and with no substantial OOC teams scheduled, LSU should head into November off its bye week with an 8-0 record before playing @Bama, v.Arky, @Miss, and v.aTm.
#3 Improved QB Play
From 2010-12, LSU compiled a 34-6 regular season record, one conference title, and zero national titles. Over that same span, Alabama has compiled a 35-5 regular season record, one conference title, and two national titles. The only discernible difference between the teams during this time has been a stark contrast in QB depth and development.
Urban Meyer has provided to the CFB nation a false sense of reality, being that any QB should be able to come in immediately and be extremely productive. The nation as a whole typically fails to realize that he has been successful in this regard WITHIN THE CONTEXT of a novel offensive system that he developed, and which did not exist anywhere prior to his assumption of the HC position at OSU.
For the rest of the world, 95% of the time, it doesn't matter who it is, the QB position isn't ready and won't play like a veteran until their Junior year. There are exceptions to the rule, of course, but most of the time...that's the case. To this end, I would like to illustrate the following:
Whether you stand with the majority who want Harris, the ultra-talented sophomore whose drawback includes having played organized football for only 3 years, or with the minority who want Jennings, freshly reinstated to the team, who is a physically limited film junkie who exclusively corners the market with game experience, improvement from the position is all but guaranteed under the tutelage of Cam Cameron, whose influenced helped shape the careers of Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco, as well as countless others through his mentorship of one George Whitfield Jr.
#4a Replacement of John Chavis
I was upset to see Chavis leave our team this past January to join a division rival. However, as discussed ad nauseum, his reputation for elite defenses is somewhat of a rouse due to the ball-control, run-heavy offense which complemented him during his time here. I have isolated yardage and point totals surrendered on a single-play basis:
Only in 2011-12 did Chavis field truly ELITE defenses... due in large part to the personnel at the time. That being said, the talent stockpiled at LSU as the 2015 season approaches is embarrassing and rivals that of the 2011-12 defenses.
In addition, his issues with the Mustang Package are well documented... there are been several occasions where his defense faltered down the stretch and surrendered the game... and even more occasions where the opponent failed to capitalize.
2009:
State - Goalline Stand to preserve the win
Georgia - 40 yard KO ret by Trindon + 33 yard TD by Scott in 1:09 after D surrenders go-ahead TD
Ole Miss - Down by one score in 4Q, D surrenders an 8 MINUTE scoring drive
Arkansas - with 1:18 remaining, 41 yard FG for OT after D surrenders go-ahead TD
2010:
N Carolina - up 30-10 to start 4Q, D preserves the win at the goal line for the W
W Virginia -
Tennessee -
Florida - 62 yard scoring drive in 3:15 after D surrenders go-ahead TD (+2pt)
Ole Miss - 51 yard scoring drive in 4:13 after D surrenders go-ahead TD
2011:
Alabama Pt. 1 -
Alabama Pt. 2 -
2012:
Auburn -
Alabama - with 1:34 remaining, surrenders go-ahead TD
Ole Miss -
Arkansas - with 1:26 remaining, down one score, Ark drives 60 yards before falling short
Clemson - with 1:39 remaining, surrenders GW FG
2013:
Georgia - with 4:14 remaining, surrenders go-ahead TD
Ole Miss - with 3:19 remaining, surrenders GW FG
Arkansas -
2014:
Wisconsin -
Florida - converted DE drops TD pass, UF kicks FG for OT
Ole Miss - with 1:19 remaining, Ole Miss drives 45 yards before Bad Bo
Alabama - with 0:50 remaining, Alabama drives 55 yards for FG to OT
aTm - with 2:07 remaining, aTm drives to midfield before "offsides" no call
ND - with 5:41 remaining, ND kicks GW FG as time expires
20 LSU underclassmen have declared for the NFL draft in the last 3 years. Thanks to the new CBA, we saw the effects of the mass exodus on the defensive side of the ball in 2012, where SIX underclassmen defenders were taken in the first 3 Rounds of the NFL draft... and again on the offensive side of the ball in 2013 with the departures of FIVE more underclassmen offensive players who each made significant contributions in their rookie years. As a departure from this trend, the 2015 Tigers return between 15-17 starters from last year's 2014 team, the most since the 2007 NC season. The return of the aforementioned players will be critical to the success of this year's Tiger team moreso than any other factor.
Special praise to all players who would forego the NFL Draft to return this year.
#2 SEC Cycles and the Schedule
As LSU faithful, we know firsthand the pain that comes with breaking in inexperienced QBs. To that end, of the 4 teams who finished above LSU in the 2014 division standings, 3 will be preparing new signal-callers to face the SEC gauntlet. The fourth, Mississippi State's Dak Prescott, will contend with replacing 7 starters on each side of the ball. In reflection of the 2014 meeting, it will now be LSU who travels to StarkVegas with a team of seasoned players facing a young team very early in the season.
Having drawn teams with a combined 2014 SEC record of 9-7 and with no substantial OOC teams scheduled, LSU should head into November off its bye week with an 8-0 record before playing @Bama, v.Arky, @Miss, and v.aTm.
#3 Improved QB Play
From 2010-12, LSU compiled a 34-6 regular season record, one conference title, and zero national titles. Over that same span, Alabama has compiled a 35-5 regular season record, one conference title, and two national titles. The only discernible difference between the teams during this time has been a stark contrast in QB depth and development.
Urban Meyer has provided to the CFB nation a false sense of reality, being that any QB should be able to come in immediately and be extremely productive. The nation as a whole typically fails to realize that he has been successful in this regard WITHIN THE CONTEXT of a novel offensive system that he developed, and which did not exist anywhere prior to his assumption of the HC position at OSU.
For the rest of the world, 95% of the time, it doesn't matter who it is, the QB position isn't ready and won't play like a veteran until their Junior year. There are exceptions to the rule, of course, but most of the time...that's the case. To this end, I would like to illustrate the following:
quote:
Points Per Play... Yards Per Play... Yards Per Pass... Pass Rating
Jamarcus Russell
2005 - 27th............. 46th................ 19th................. 24th
2006 - 7th............... 5th.................. 4th................... 5th
Matt Flynn
2007 - 9th............... 34th............... 37th.................. 53rd
Jarrett Lee
2008 - 33rd............. 67th............... 73rd................. 94th
Jordan Jefferson
2009 - 44th............. 87th............... 65th................. 19th
2010 - 31st............. 68th............... 63rd................. 84th
Jordan Jefferson/Jarrett Lee
2011 - 7th............... 36th.............. 42nd................. 19th
Zach Mettenberger
2012 - 48th............ 74th............... 66th................. 80th
2013 - 9th.............. 12th............... 3rd................... 7th
Anthony Jennings
2014 - 78th............ 71st............... 55th................. 82nd
2008 - Jarrett Lee - 2nd year QB
2009 - Jordan Jefferson - 2nd year QB
2012 - Zach Mettenberger - 2nd year QB
2014 - Anthony Jennings - 2nd year QB
*All Rankings Indicated Are From Data Involving ONLY two FBS schools
Whether you stand with the majority who want Harris, the ultra-talented sophomore whose drawback includes having played organized football for only 3 years, or with the minority who want Jennings, freshly reinstated to the team, who is a physically limited film junkie who exclusively corners the market with game experience, improvement from the position is all but guaranteed under the tutelage of Cam Cameron, whose influenced helped shape the careers of Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco, as well as countless others through his mentorship of one George Whitfield Jr.
#4a Replacement of John Chavis
I was upset to see Chavis leave our team this past January to join a division rival. However, as discussed ad nauseum, his reputation for elite defenses is somewhat of a rouse due to the ball-control, run-heavy offense which complemented him during his time here. I have isolated yardage and point totals surrendered on a single-play basis:
quote:
LSU Defenses against Power 5 Opponents
Yards/Play (Rank) Points/Play (Rank) 3rd % (Rank)
2009..... 4.6 (17)......... .22 (8)......... 36.7% (36)
2010..... 4.9 (26)......... .29 (19)....... 33.3 (8)
2011..... 4.0 (2)........... .16 (2)......... 36.8 (36)
2012..... 4.3 (7)........... .24 (10)....... 31.5 (9)
2013..... 5.1 (34)......... .32 (34)....... 39.5 (63)
2014..... 4.9 (26)......... .28 (17)....... 37.16 (33)
Only in 2011-12 did Chavis field truly ELITE defenses... due in large part to the personnel at the time. That being said, the talent stockpiled at LSU as the 2015 season approaches is embarrassing and rivals that of the 2011-12 defenses.
In addition, his issues with the Mustang Package are well documented... there are been several occasions where his defense faltered down the stretch and surrendered the game... and even more occasions where the opponent failed to capitalize.
2009:
State - Goalline Stand to preserve the win
Georgia - 40 yard KO ret by Trindon + 33 yard TD by Scott in 1:09 after D surrenders go-ahead TD
Ole Miss - Down by one score in 4Q, D surrenders an 8 MINUTE scoring drive
Arkansas - with 1:18 remaining, 41 yard FG for OT after D surrenders go-ahead TD
2010:
N Carolina - up 30-10 to start 4Q, D preserves the win at the goal line for the W
W Virginia -
Tennessee -
Florida - 62 yard scoring drive in 3:15 after D surrenders go-ahead TD (+2pt)
Ole Miss - 51 yard scoring drive in 4:13 after D surrenders go-ahead TD
2011:
Alabama Pt. 1 -
Alabama Pt. 2 -
2012:
Auburn -
Alabama - with 1:34 remaining, surrenders go-ahead TD
Ole Miss -
Arkansas - with 1:26 remaining, down one score, Ark drives 60 yards before falling short
Clemson - with 1:39 remaining, surrenders GW FG
2013:
Georgia - with 4:14 remaining, surrenders go-ahead TD
Ole Miss - with 3:19 remaining, surrenders GW FG
Arkansas -
2014:
Wisconsin -
Florida - converted DE drops TD pass, UF kicks FG for OT
Ole Miss - with 1:19 remaining, Ole Miss drives 45 yards before Bad Bo
Alabama - with 0:50 remaining, Alabama drives 55 yards for FG to OT
aTm - with 2:07 remaining, aTm drives to midfield before "offsides" no call
ND - with 5:41 remaining, ND kicks GW FG as time expires
This post was edited on 8/1/15 at 9:43 am
21
Posted on 2/16/15 at 1:16 am to chilge1
#4b Kevin Steele
I would like to say first that surrendering 70 points in a non-OT game is a deserved black eye for any DC. With that out of the way, I would like to dissect his time as the DC at Clemson using the same statistics used above, as well as provide a glimpse into the personnel on the field at the time.
The 2009 Clemson Defense returned 8 starters from the previous year, and featured 6 current NFL players (4 DL). Likewise, the 2010 Clemson Defense returned 6 starters from the previous year, and featured 6 current NFL players (4 DL).
In what may not be regarded as a huge variance, the 2011 Clemson Defense returned only 5 starters from the previous year, and featured 5 current NFL players (3 DL).
Additionally, there does seem to be a mild gap in talent between the rosters as indicated by 247 Composite Rankings.
A side-by-side average of these composite rankings by year is as follows:
.......2009....... 2010....... 2011
DL .9607........ .9119....... .8953
LB .8305........ .8427....... .8567*
DB .8667....... .9154....... .8585
Total .8850..... .8900...... .8702
While this does not explain the DEGREE of the decline from 2010-11, it at least suggests a relationship.
Which brings me to....
#5 Talent
The Talent acquired in the last several years, specifically the first Back-to-Back Top 5 Recruiting Finishes in Miles' tenure is matched only by a chosen few. What's more, the 2016 Class may be the best yet.
*Apologies to the recruitniks, I haven't followed the developments of these players since the OP.
I would like to say first that surrendering 70 points in a non-OT game is a deserved black eye for any DC. With that out of the way, I would like to dissect his time as the DC at Clemson using the same statistics used above, as well as provide a glimpse into the personnel on the field at the time.
quote:
Clemson Defenses against Power 5 Opponents
Yards/Play (Rank) Points/Play (Rank) 3rd % (Rank)
2009..... 4.5 (14)......... .30 (22)........ 40.3 (68)
2010..... 4.8 (17)......... .27 (13)........ 38.3 (44)
2011..... 5.4 (66)......... .41 (73)........ 41.2 (68)
The 2009 Clemson Defense returned 8 starters from the previous year, and featured 6 current NFL players (4 DL). Likewise, the 2010 Clemson Defense returned 6 starters from the previous year, and featured 6 current NFL players (4 DL).
In what may not be regarded as a huge variance, the 2011 Clemson Defense returned only 5 starters from the previous year, and featured 5 current NFL players (3 DL).
Additionally, there does seem to be a mild gap in talent between the rosters as indicated by 247 Composite Rankings.
quote:
2009
Returning Starters – 8
.9997 - DE – DaQuan Bowers
.8875 - NG – Jarvis Jenkins
.9704 – NG – Brandon Thompson
.9853 - BE – Ricky Sapp
.9215 - SLB – Scotty Cooper
.8146 - MLB – Brandon Mayes
.7556 - WLB – Kavell Conner
.8667 - CB – Chris Chancellor
.8875 - CB – Crezdon Butler
.8000 - FS – Sadat Chambers
.9127 - SS – DeAndre McDaniel
quote:
2010
Returning Starters – 6
*.9997 - DE – DaQuan Bowers
*.9704 - NG – Brandon Thompson
*.8875 - DT – Jarvis Jenkins
.7899 - BE – Andre Branch
.8567 – SLB – Quandon Christian
.8567 – MLB – Corico Hawkins
*.8146 - WLB – Brandon Mayes
.9629 - CB – Marcus Gilchrist
.9281 - CB – Byron Maxwell
.8579 – FS - Rashard Hall
*.9127 - SS – DeAndre McDaniel
quote:
2011
Returning Starters - 5
.9673 - DE – Mallicah Goodman
*.9704 - NT – Brandon Thompson
.8537 - DT – Rennie Moore
*.7899 - BE – Andre Branch
*.8567 - SLB – Quandon Christian
*.8567 - MLB – Corico Hawkins
WLB – Jonathan Willard
.7566 - CB – Coty Sensabaugh
.9322 - CB – Xavier Brewer
*.8579 - FS – Rashard Hall
.8875 - SS – Jonathan Meeks
A side-by-side average of these composite rankings by year is as follows:
.......2009....... 2010....... 2011
DL .9607........ .9119....... .8953
LB .8305........ .8427....... .8567*
DB .8667....... .9154....... .8585
Total .8850..... .8900...... .8702
While this does not explain the DEGREE of the decline from 2010-11, it at least suggests a relationship.
Which brings me to....
#5 Talent
quote:
Offense - Returning Starters - 9
.9645 - QB – Brandon Harris
*.9135 – QB – Anthony Jennings
*.9996 - RB – Leonard Fournette
.9027 – RB – Darrel Williams
*.8885 – WR – Travin Dural
*.9915 - WR – Malachi Dupre
*.9627 – WR – Trey Quinn
.9200 – WR – Avery Peterson
.9186 – WR – John Diarse
*.8770 – TE – Dillon Gordon
.9225 - TE – Jacory Washington
.9420 – TE – DeSean Smith
*.9728 - OT – Ethan Pocic
*.8897 – OT – Jerald Hawkins
*.9311 – OG – Vadal Alexander
.9316 – OG – Josh Boutte
.9517 - OG – Garrett Brumfield
.9054 – C – Will Clapp
.8886 - C – Andy Dodd
quote:
Defense - Returning Starters – 8
.8848 - DE – Sione Teuhema
.9324 - DE – Deondre Clark
*.9004 - DT – Christian Lacouture
*.9328 - DT – Davon Godchaux
.9187 - DE – Tashawn Bower
.9589 - DE – Arden Key
*.9021 - OLB – Lamar Louis
*.9664 - MLB – Kendell Beckwith
*.8868 - OLB – Deion Jones
*.9732 - CB – Tre White
.9948 - CB – Kevin Tolliver
*.8532 - S – Jalen Mills
*.9847 - S – Jamal Adams
The Talent acquired in the last several years, specifically the first Back-to-Back Top 5 Recruiting Finishes in Miles' tenure is matched only by a chosen few. What's more, the 2016 Class may be the best yet.
quote:
.9760 - QB - Feleipe Franks (6-5/220)
.9533 - WR - Dee Anderson (6-4/177)
.9529 - WR - Stephen Sullivan (6-6/222)
.9236 - WR - Mykel Jones (6-0/180)
.9205 - TE - Jamal Pettigrew (6-6/218)
.9984 - OT - Gregory Little (6-5.5/305)
.9831 - OT - Willie Allen (6-7.5/300)
.9436 - OG - Donavaughn Campbell (6-5/340)
.8996 - OG - Darius Whitfield (6-3/265)
.9951 - DE - Shavar Manuel (6-4/290)
.9896 - DT - Rashard Lawrence (6-4/300)
.9893 - DT - Edwin Alexander (6-2/310)
.9022 - DT - Glen Logan (6-4/270)
.9000 - DT - Stephon Taylor (6-5/260)
.9756 - OLB - Keion Joyner (6-3/200)
.9664 - OLB - Michael Divinity (6-2/218)
.9547 - OLB - Eric Fowler (6-1/232)
.9469 - OLB - Jeffrey McCulloch (6-2/225)
.9308 - OLB - Devin White (6-0.5/235)
.8591 - OLB - Clifford Chattman (6-4/175)
.9909 - CB _ Savion Smith (6-1/ 1175)
.9795 - CB - Trayvon Mullen (6-2/175)
.9789 - CB - Kristian Fulton (6-0/165)
.9119 - CB - Andraez Williams (6-1/160)
.9816 - S - Eric Monroe (6-0/180)
.9767 - S - Deontay Anderson (6-1/192)
.8975 - S - Cameron Lewis (6-1/192)
*Apologies to the recruitniks, I haven't followed the developments of these players since the OP.
This post was edited on 8/1/15 at 9:43 am
Posted on 2/16/15 at 1:31 am to chilge1
Posted on 2/16/15 at 5:23 am to chilge1
I don't count 8 returning starters on D... (2 DE, 1 LB, 1 CB)
11-4=7
Just a bit optimistic on that recruiting class I would guess. I doubt 6 of those DT's will come to same school to compete. I hope I'm wrong and Coach O pulls a miracle. But I would guess 4 would be reasonable and 5 a stretch, 6 just sounds crazy.
11-4=7
Just a bit optimistic on that recruiting class I would guess. I doubt 6 of those DT's will come to same school to compete. I hope I'm wrong and Coach O pulls a miracle. But I would guess 4 would be reasonable and 5 a stretch, 6 just sounds crazy.
Posted on 2/16/15 at 5:26 am to chilge1
Its baseball season
Posted on 2/16/15 at 6:10 am to chilge1
I appreciate your efforts.
Posted on 2/16/15 at 6:46 am to chilge1
All of that will be negated by the following:
1) Les Miles
1) Les Miles
Posted on 2/16/15 at 7:20 am to chilge1
Good read. Thanks.
Posted on 2/16/15 at 7:29 am to victoire sécurisé
Nice work....well done
Posted on 2/16/15 at 8:02 am to LSUballs
quote:
All of that will be negated by the following:
GFY, nerd
Well done chilge.
I honestly think 2015-16 are going to be a 2006-07 or 2010-2011 type run.
What makes it even more exciting is the 2014-2016 recruiting classes that will have us poised to build to even more success in a way that we were unable to after both of those great runs by Miles. Led most notably by a true Tiger, Feleipe Franks.
Steele is at a point in his career where he is ready to fully utilize the diverse talent this staff has built up. A ridiculous secondary reminiscent of 2010-11, a raw group of DLs that will have one of the most infectious teachers the college game has ever seen, and a veteran and diverse LB corps ready to put to use everything Steele has acquired over his impressive career.
This defense will be special.
And the offensive talent at RB, WR, and OL is quite simply the best LSU has ever had. Period.
All that needs to happen is for one of the best OCs in the country to put either of our two QBs in a position to use the weapons around them. Neither has to put the team on his back, although with the right attitude and motivation one certainly could, but simply create s scheme similar to the one our staff created in 2011 when two vastly less talented QBs took this team to the best season in school history.
It will happen.
And more than anything else, we have a team of both players and coaches that are HUNGRY. They are chomping at the bit to bring the purple and gold to a level that the naysayers will be unable to dissect.
Unlike the past few seasons, when we seemed somewhat rudderless without the fire that sparked the 2011 run, this team has the playmakers that can step forward and lead this team into battle with a mentality to crush the opponent's will.
And this coaching staff will stoke that fire.
Enjoy this offseason, Miles haters. The next two years are going to force you back into your holes. The storm has been weathered, the tide has turned.
The Tigers are coming, and the Hat is settling his debts
This post was edited on 2/16/15 at 8:06 am
Posted on 2/16/15 at 8:05 am to Tiger Voodoo
quote:
this team has the playmakers that can step forward and lead this team into battle with a mentality to crush the opponent's will.
I especially like Jamal Adams in this regard.
Posted on 2/16/15 at 8:15 am to Tiger Voodoo
quote:
The storm has been weathered, the tide has turned. The Tigers are coming, and the Hat is settling his debts
Posted on 2/16/15 at 8:17 am to chilge1
quote:
I especially like Jamal Adams in this regard.
Exactly who I was referring to.
Mathieu was a once in a lifetime player, but Adams has the same mentality and leadership that drove TM. And he has that heart in a 5 star body. It is scary to think what he can accomplish once unleashed.
Beckwith is another difference maker that I see as a leader of this group.
And if there isn't a specific player on the DL that fits that bill at the moment, although I believe Teahuma has what it takes and Valentine will redefine our DL, Coach O himself will carry the banner for the line.
This defense is poised to explode. Even moreso than it appeared to be in 2011 after losing players like Peterson, Sheppard, and Nevis.
But the young stars took it upon themselves to set the tone for that historic run, and I have no doubt that this group will thrive under the new energy of this staff.
Posted on 2/16/15 at 8:28 am to chilge1
quote:
under the tutelage of Cam Cameron, whose influenced helped shape the careers of Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco,
This is so over-rated. He may have turned them from very good to great, but that is in no way the same as turning them from poor to very good. They all had some level of mental development prior to "being developed" by Cam.
Posted on 2/16/15 at 8:32 am to chilge1
Long post but worth the read.
A for effort.
No reason LSU shouldn't have good as chance as anyone else in west to go to Atlanta, especially with avg to slightly above qb play.
A for effort.
No reason LSU shouldn't have good as chance as anyone else in west to go to Atlanta, especially with avg to slightly above qb play.
Posted on 2/16/15 at 8:48 am to TIGRLEE
good read.Posted on 2/16/15 at 9:05 am to Tiger Voodoo
Posted on 2/16/15 at 9:14 am to Jenar Boy
It all depends on Les. Can he coach them up to compete? 
Posted on 2/16/15 at 9:18 am to Jenar Boy
I appreciate the stat work.
Posted on 2/16/15 at 9:19 am to chilge1
This was a nice read on a Monday morning. Well done sir. Have an upvote.
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