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Started By
Message
Miss River Spring Flood, what are we looking at this year?
Posted on 2/14/15 at 11:35 am
Posted on 2/14/15 at 11:35 am
Anything close to 2011?
4
Posted on 2/14/15 at 11:38 am to Ignignot
doubtful
not that much snow pack in midwest
almost all of it melted before the storm 2 weeks ago
but even that was really wet snow and most has evaporated, not melted
i think a very low year on the river
not that much snow pack in midwest
almost all of it melted before the storm 2 weeks ago
but even that was really wet snow and most has evaporated, not melted
i think a very low year on the river
Posted on 2/14/15 at 12:48 pm to runningTiger
Hope you're right. My natchez turkey hunting is liking you're prediction
Posted on 2/14/15 at 1:15 pm to runningTiger
Need to be looking further east at Ohio river valley, 60% of ms river flow is from there.
That being said currently there is not much if any snow .
That being said currently there is not much if any snow .
Posted on 2/14/15 at 1:55 pm to Ignignot
The river is usually at 23 in BR at the end of deer season. I don't see his having much of a rise this year
Posted on 2/14/15 at 10:46 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
The spring floods are mostly a result of spring rain. 12" of snow equal 1" of rain. It's a little early to tell but I doubt we will see anything close to 2011 for a long time.
Posted on 2/15/15 at 6:45 am to foj1981
This sucks not having a spring rise yet. 
Best time for running trotlines for catfish.
Best time for running trotlines for catfish. 
Posted on 2/15/15 at 8:04 am to foj1981
Better hope not until the USACE changes its managment methods
Posted on 2/15/15 at 9:10 am to foj1981
Another one close to 2011, where the Morganza spillway is forced to open up might help out and flush some of the invasive aquatic plants out of Sherburne. Would probably keep Shurburne from turning into another Maurepas. I'm sure that it won't help everyone else though.
Posted on 2/15/15 at 9:11 pm to runningTiger
quote:
i think a very low year on the river
Posted on 2/16/15 at 10:10 am to foj1981
quote:
.....mostly a result of spring rain
This. Most figure with all that snow it would make for a big rise, though maybe not this year, but it's really the spring rain storms that give us the big rises down here. I'm hopeful for no Bonnet Carre openings into lake P
Posted on 3/10/15 at 11:52 pm to Ignignot
Looks like the River is coming up, just looked and its predicted to be at 42' in natchez by Sunday. Our place on the River starts getting water in the sloughs at 42'. Looks like most of turkey season is fricked there unless it crests. Probably have to concentrate on my place near San antonio
Posted on 3/11/15 at 4:30 am to crankbait
When this thread started it looked like a low year. River is rising fast. Could turn out to be unusually high year if the rain doesn't let up a bit.
Posted on 3/11/15 at 7:10 am to eng08
quote:
Need to be looking further east at Ohio river valley, 60% of ms river flow is from there.
Yep. We've had flooding up here. Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Tennessee... All that water is going to the Gulf Of Mexico. And solid rain is in the forecast all this week. We had 32 inches of snow here in two weeks. It still hasn't melted completely.
Posted on 3/11/15 at 7:29 am to mack the knife
quote:
Better hope not until the USACE changes its managment methods
What do you mean by this? I'm a huge critic of the Corps in most instances, but what they do managing the water that comes down the river in regard to protecting people from floodwaters is one of the finest jobs of engineering you can find.
Posted on 3/11/15 at 7:39 am to tenfoe
quote:
What do you mean by this?
the determining factor the corps uses as to whether or not to open the spillways is the volume of water, not the water surface elevation. this method doesn't take into account the siltation that has accumulated in the river equating to a given volume of water raising the water level elevation on the levee system. in 2011 the flood gates should have been opened earlier based on the water surface elevation.
the corps got away with it then but it is a serious flaw in their management practice.
Posted on 3/11/15 at 7:46 am to mack the knife
quote:
the corps got away with it
If you mean managing the water of over 40% of the lower 48 states within 0.2' of their desired water levels "getting away with it", ok.
Posted on 3/11/15 at 8:24 am to tenfoe
quote:
If you mean managing the water of over 40% of the lower 48 states within 0.2' of their desired water levels "getting away with it", ok.
true. by "getting away with it" i don't mean that they pulled a fast one or were flying by the seat of their pants. they did successfully manage a difficult situation. but, imo there is a flaw in the model as to when to open the spillways. sediment accumulation in the river happens faster than it can be dredged.
Posted on 3/11/15 at 8:42 am to mack the knife
quote:
there is a flaw in the model
I can agree
quote:
as to when to open the spillways
Their #1 job in regard to the river and its spillways is to protect people and property from water. They try to keep as much water between the levees as possible.
quote:
sediment accumulation in the river happens faster than it can be dredged
Thank the folks in Washington for paying for cell phones, housing, food, medical bills, and tattoos of all the slackers in the U.S. with funds that could have been dedicated to more worthwhile causes.
Posted on 3/11/15 at 8:54 am to Ignignot
River was at 7 ft on Monday and should be in the 10ft range this week. Not sure about how high it will get this spring but I would expect a decent rise. Hopefully not 2011 high though.
ETA: This is at Luling LA.
ETA: This is at Luling LA.
This post was edited on 3/11/15 at 8:57 am
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