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Started By
Message
Call Wasn't Dumb. Y'all Just Don't Understand Statistics.
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:34 pm
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:34 pm
Nothing dumb about the call. Unlikely interception happened. But wait, Marshawn would have almost surely scored!!!! Well yeh, they also almost surely would have scored throwing the ball 3 times.
The stupid call was throwing into the end zone a few plays before. That was a high percentage chance to waste a down, and even if they score, they give the ball back to the Patriots with plenty of time up only 3.
Football outcomes are binary. You have a percentage of winning and losing at all points and it always equals 1. Just because there chances of winning went from ~80% to 0% in a split second doesn't mean the call was stupid.
The stupid call was throwing into the end zone a few plays before. That was a high percentage chance to waste a down, and even if they score, they give the ball back to the Patriots with plenty of time up only 3.
Football outcomes are binary. You have a percentage of winning and losing at all points and it always equals 1. Just because there chances of winning went from ~80% to 0% in a split second doesn't mean the call was stupid.
39
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:35 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
Just because there chances of winning went from ~80% to 0% in a split second doesn't mean the call was stupid.
Think about that for just a second.
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:35 pm to TheSexecutioner
Jennifer Lawrence OK gif
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:35 pm to TheSexecutioner
oh look, another sexecutioner thread in which all he succeeds in doing is reminding us how much of a dumb frick he is
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:35 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
Football outcomes are binary. You have a percentage of winning and losing at all points and it always equals 1. Just because there chances of winning went from ~80% to 0% in a split second doesn't mean the call was stupid.
Needing a td from the 1, you use your team's strength
This post was edited on 2/1/15 at 11:36 pm
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:36 pm to brgfather129
quote:
Think about that for just a second.
OK, I have. Do you think there's something inherently illogical to that? The same thing would have happened if they lost a fumble after making the "correct" call, no?
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:36 pm to TheSexecutioner
should have thrown some hail maries on 4th instead of punting
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:36 pm to TheSexecutioner
Hey Pete. Damn, I didnt know you posted here
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:37 pm to JaxTiger10
quote:
Needing a td from the 1, you use your team's strength
Balance and unpredictability? Its not like they threw 4 straight times. They ran once and threw once. They averaged 4.3 yards rushing and 11.8 throwing all game. Patriots are one of the best short yardage run Ds in the league.
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:38 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
Call Wasn't Dumb. Y'all Just Don't Understand Statistics.
I'm sold. The call was brilliant. Seahawks win!
This post was edited on 2/1/15 at 11:39 pm
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:39 pm to TheSexecutioner
Omg. This is the dumbest shite I've ever read.
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:40 pm to TheSexecutioner
You are a retard
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:40 pm to TheSexecutioner
The fact that 80% of people were shocked they passed at all means it was pretty stupid.
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:41 pm to John McClane
Why do OPs do this to themselves all the time here?
There's a line between "thinking outside the box" and "Jesus Christ, did you really just post that?"
There's a line between "thinking outside the box" and "Jesus Christ, did you really just post that?"
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:41 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
The stupid call was throwing into the end zone a few plays before.
That almost certainly wasn't the call on that play. Wilson was scanning the field forever and then threw up a prayer.
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:41 pm to JaxTiger10
quote:
Needing a td from the 1, you use your team's strength
But needing a TD from the 4, needing a first down from the 47, or needing a good gain on 1st and 10, you use your team's weakness. :roll eyes:
What does that even mean? Stuff like this is what I'm talking about. Stupid unweighted adages instead of a statistical analysis of the situation. Would I have thrown the ball? Maybe, maybe not. But before calling it stupidest call in Super Bowl history, I'm gonna make a case for why rather than spew some words that you heard some clown say.
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:42 pm to saintsfan22
quote:
That almost certainly wasn't the call on that play. Wilson was scanning the field forever and then threw up a prayer.
agreed. And fair enough. Perhaps the play call wasn't as stupid as the decision. Regardless, if I'm a coach, I tell him we don't throw prayers into the end zone before the play.
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:42 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:
Stupid unweighted adages instead of a statistical analysis of the situation.
Well, let's see some stats.
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:43 pm to TheSexecutioner
quote:The final outcome is binary, but the possible outcomes of any given play are not. Furthermore, they should be weighed against the alternative plays. In this case the possibilities are TD pass, incomplete pass, and interception compared to Lynch getting a TD, getting stopped, and fumbling. The Lynch run far outweighs the pass, especially a pass into the middle of a defense.
Football outcomes are binary. You have a percentage of winning and losing at all points and it always equals 1. Just because there chances of winning went from ~80% to 0% in a split second doesn't mean the call was stupid.
Your post in a simplification and misrepresentation of probability.
This post was edited on 2/1/15 at 11:45 pm
Posted on 2/1/15 at 11:43 pm to TheSexecutioner
Man if you execute sex as well as you execute football you would be getting laid tonight
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