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Stock bargains starting to show up IMHO

Posted on 1/27/15 at 11:55 am
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 1/27/15 at 11:55 am
I follow a few stocks and think the recent market softness offers buying opportunity. Let me know what you think.

CLD--Cloud Peak Energy---This is a coal company that operates strictly in the Powder River Basin (PRB). The coal business has been bad for some time and there is little prospect for significant changes in demand for coal. Prices for coal are very low. There is a very good chance several coal companies will fail.

CLD has some competitive advantages. CLD has a strong balance sheet and is profitable. More importantly it has pretty good cash flow even with coal at these historically low prices. They have essentially all of their 2015 coal productions sold at profitable prices and a significant portion of their 2016 production. They have very important rights to use west coast ports to export coal. Both Oregon and Washington are seeking to limit coal production going out of their ports but CLD has access and this access is increasingly hard to get. CLD will benefit from a cost of production standpoint from lower oil prices. They are a surface mining company and it takes a lot of fuel to move the coal just on their property. They are the low cost producer in the PRB.

The opportunity--Even though demand will not increase significantly supply will decrease moving prices upward in late 15-16. Even a small change in price means a huge difference in CLD's income statement. (a dollar a ton equals about $80 million for CLD). Supply will go down as mines are closed.

CLD was hampered in 2014 because of a shortage of rail cars in the PRB.
That supply of cars seems to be correcting and will allow more shipments.

I own this stock and have lost about 20% on it but I still find the story compelling. EV/EBITDA of only 4.79

WRB--W. R. Berkley-- WRB is an insurance company writing primarily property and casualty insurance. They primarily write specialty insurance like officer liability, worker's comp, and reinsurance. They have a combined ratio of 93.5 which indicates they are very good underwriters. The company has over the last 5 and10 years outperformed the S&P 500 and benchmark companies such as XOM in total return. Management is very shareholder friendly and is restricted from sale of their personal stock so long as they are employed. The ROE most recently was 17% and the goal of management is to maintain ROE over 15%. Share return has averaged a little over 12% annually.

The opportunity: This is a good long term investment. The company has profits from premiums and a good record of profits on investments. They have a short term portfolio of bonds that they are required to mark to market for reporting purposes. They will hold these bonds to maturity and will have gains as they recover the mark to market allowances on the sales. A small uptick in interest rates--unlikely it seems in the short term---will significantly add to the profits of the company. Meanwhile the company has diversified it's loss risk and is very focused on shareholder return.

I own this stock and have for some time. EV/EBITDA of only 5.58

NWSA--I haven't the time right now to explain the whole story but the bottom line is this--Fox spun this company off essentially debt free. They are using the strong balance sheet to make media content acquisitions. Although their profits are small they are making good investments that will add to their already strong cash flow. It is a value play in multinational media and needs time to play out.

I own this stock and am about even on the investment. EV/EBITDA 9.85
This post was edited on 2/4/15 at 8:32 pm
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 2/5/15 at 10:17 am to
CLD is the best value in a stock right now that has been brought to my attention. It is cheap, cheap, cheap in every measurable valuation method. It's total market cap is less than it's available liquidity meaning between the cash they have and the cash available to them they could buy every share of stock outstanding and not have to sell a single asset.

Today they released a presentation the CEO will deliver in Miami at a trade conference.

LINK
This post was edited on 2/5/15 at 10:19 am
Posted by tigerskin
Member since Nov 2004
40027 posts
Posted on 2/5/15 at 11:07 am to
Nevermind my question. Saw you have lost 20 percent on it
This post was edited on 2/5/15 at 11:09 am
Posted by CHSBears
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2007
778 posts
Posted on 2/5/15 at 11:30 am to
If have investments in coal thru ARLP.
Year over year gains in sales, tonnage and a increasing per unit distribution for 27th quarter in a row.
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 2/5/15 at 2:37 pm to
quote:

Nevermind my question. Saw you have lost 20 percent on it


Up 5+% today. Its not a trader. It is a hold as long as the story remains.

$1 per ton in price increase in coal means over $80 million in gross profit to them.

They have two large competitors that are headed to bankruptcy baring a major rise in price. Those bankruptcies will no doubt lead to less supply.

It's not often you find profitable companies trading at basically the value of their cash and near cash assets. You are getting the coal for free.
This post was edited on 2/5/15 at 2:39 pm
Posted by JudgeHolden
Gila River
Member since Jan 2008
18566 posts
Posted on 2/5/15 at 2:49 pm to
Coal for free sounds good. But talk to me about environmental liabilities that might anchor this stock. And why did competitors go bankrupt?
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 2/5/15 at 2:59 pm to
quote:

Coal for free sounds good. But talk to me about environmental liabilities that might anchor this stock.


Inherent in the coal business and has been. Nothing new. Obama has been after them but there is still over 900 million metric tons a year produced in the US.

I suggest you look at the slide presentation CLD released today in my link above.

The world can't disinvest in coal fired electric plants in our life time let alone over the next two or three years it will take this stock play to play out.

Competitor are going bankrupt because the price of coal is cheap, their cost are high and their balance sheets are leveraged.

CLD is profitable, has lower cost of operations and has a strong balance sheet thus the advantages and the investment opportunity.

Also coal inventories fell 40 million tons last year. LINK
This post was edited on 2/5/15 at 3:02 pm
Posted by eye65
Member since Aug 2009
987 posts
Posted on 2/5/15 at 3:21 pm to
Out of curiosity, who do you see going BK? I'm long btu...and still in the hole
Posted by CHSBears
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2007
778 posts
Posted on 2/5/15 at 3:25 pm to
Chinese demand for coal is ever increasing, won't stop anytime soon.

LINK
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 2/5/15 at 3:35 pm to
I think ACI and ANR are in danger. They have loads of debt from ill timed acquisitions.
Posted by eye65
Member since Aug 2009
987 posts
Posted on 2/5/15 at 3:43 pm to
I've seen some insider buying in the last few months in arch so maybe they've got a plan or see a little light in the tunnel...? Btu also. Staying away and agree on alpha.
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 2/5/15 at 3:48 pm to
quote:

I've seen some insider buying in the last few months in arch so maybe they've got a plan or see a little light in the tunnel...? Btu also. Staying away and agree on alpha.



CLD is so cheap it is crazy. It's like buying a dollar for a quarter.
Posted by JudgeHolden
Gila River
Member since Jan 2008
18566 posts
Posted on 2/6/15 at 3:32 pm to
It is five percent cheaper today than it was yesterday. Something is afoot.

Yall may be right, and you might make 300 percent on it. But I'm leary.
This post was edited on 2/6/15 at 3:35 pm
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
166134 posts
Posted on 2/6/15 at 3:35 pm to
quote:

It is five percent cheaper today than it was yesterday. Something is afoot.


day before it went up 5%...
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 2/6/15 at 8:16 pm to
There may be a cheaper stock in a profitable company but I don't know it. I wish someone would show me one with better from a EV/EBITDA, Book value, P/E, and P/EBITDA basis.
Posted by JudgeHolden
Gila River
Member since Jan 2008
18566 posts
Posted on 2/6/15 at 11:21 pm to
Then why isnt the market seeing what you see?
Posted by cjared036
Houston, tx
Member since Dec 2009
9569 posts
Posted on 2/7/15 at 7:58 am to
shorters trying to get it on sale.
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16157 posts
Posted on 2/7/15 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

Then why isnt the market seeing what you see? 


Not agreeing or disagreeing that this is a good buy, but if you go by this motto theoretically there are no good deals to be had anywhere.

The efficient market hypothesis.
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
27318 posts
Posted on 2/7/15 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

Then why isnt the market seeing what you see?


The market is irrational. You make money by following/finding strong businesses and buying when the market punishes them for no reason. The cream always rises to the top. I have zero interest in short term advances/declines. The ONLY way to make sig money in stocks(unless you are a true insider) is the buy and hold. Find a company that does it better, faster and cheaper-you have a winner. Helps to know the mentality of management as well. They want long term growth or short term profit? I want companies I can draw dividends and returns from 20-40 years from now. Not now. I'm neither promoting or downgrading this stock, but the OP has presented an interesting case for it. THIS is what I look for in the money board. No one knows everything about everything. I stick to medicine/pharmacy in my businesses. I invest in what I know. When I buy a stock, I try to get as much info as I can from people that know the industry inside and out.

I also want to see info from the devil's advocates against the stock. Ideally from people with extensive knowledge in coal and energy. Obama has killed coal stocks. I don't see it continuing. It's a cheap and can be relatively clean way to produce energy. Besides, Asia and S America aren't gonna give a shite anyway. And I doubt solar will ever be a significant energy source unless big energy companies can monopolize it or the components to make cheap solar cells. The cost to convert to solar is astronomical and then you have to replace the shite in a few years. Not to mention the lack of technical support in 98% of the country.

Would love to hear more!!!!! We all need food, clothing, medicine, energy, water, and shelter. And coca cola.
Posted by z71 Rebel
Orange Beach
Member since Mar 2012
144 posts
Posted on 2/7/15 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

SmackoverHawg


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