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Message
re: How much difference will the flat seam baseball make?
Posted on 1/28/15 at 2:16 am to southeasttiger113
Posted on 1/28/15 at 2:16 am to southeasttiger113
quote:
Go take that elsewhere
So you demand a serious message board yet throw childish attacks left and right?
quote:
And just to address your "coach paw said it so it has to be true" claim, coach miles said that DJ welter was one of the most improved players this offseason and how'd that work out? There's a difference between wishful thinking/coach speak and reality bud.
So because Les Miles said something, that means you can't believe anything a coach says? Solid logic
People have been to scrimmages and observed a noticeable increase in long balls this year. I don't think 15 additional home runs over the course of a long season is too far fetched
You say idiotic things, you get idiotic responses. You take things too seriously
This post was edited on 1/28/15 at 2:22 am
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Posted on 1/28/15 at 2:20 am to southeasttiger113
I can see why you don't want to have a physics debate. You don't understand science very well. And you seem to be ignoring the live data that this team and others are collecting.
The point is, balls hit at a certain angle off the bat don't need to have the exit velocity they used to. So we make an assumption to come to this year's prediction:
If there were 30 instances last year where the angle was right but the ball left at 95 mph instead of 100 and didn't leave the park,, we can probably assume that about 20 of those would be HRs this year taking into account wind, air temp, etc.
Obviously, this is an example but you need to realize that these numbers don't just get pulled out of the air based only on simulated situations like a pitching machine
The point is, balls hit at a certain angle off the bat don't need to have the exit velocity they used to. So we make an assumption to come to this year's prediction:
If there were 30 instances last year where the angle was right but the ball left at 95 mph instead of 100 and didn't leave the park,, we can probably assume that about 20 of those would be HRs this year taking into account wind, air temp, etc.
Obviously, this is an example but you need to realize that these numbers don't just get pulled out of the air based only on simulated situations like a pitching machine
Posted on 1/28/15 at 3:13 am to southeasttiger113
We will hit 20 more home runs because Fraley is full-time and Bregman is a junior now.
Sure we lost Moore and McMullen (13 combined homers) but Fraley will make up for that alone. Lol.
The rest of the guys are more seasoned now, and we added power bats in this incredible freshman class.
Coach said 60 home runs as a total taking into account not only the new ball, but the seasoned beast in the box! Combine all that with a talented hungry hitting coach constructing the madness and you have a recipe for Gorilla.
Let's Geaux!
Sure we lost Moore and McMullen (13 combined homers) but Fraley will make up for that alone. Lol.
The rest of the guys are more seasoned now, and we added power bats in this incredible freshman class.
Coach said 60 home runs as a total taking into account not only the new ball, but the seasoned beast in the box! Combine all that with a talented hungry hitting coach constructing the madness and you have a recipe for Gorilla.
Let's Geaux!
Posted on 1/28/15 at 7:58 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
quote:
Are you really this stupid or just pretend to be on the internet?
[/quote]Sadly, I don't know.[/quote]
Posted on 1/28/15 at 1:05 pm to ell_13
No I understand it perfectly and, not getting into my personal life, played baseball at a higher level than 99% on this board until 2 years ago. Have you ever swung a BBCOR bat or felt the difference between a college and minor league ball? Probably not because you wouldn't be sitting here trying to argue that 20 more home runs last year with all conditions being the exact same "isn't that far fetched". It's completely moronic and I'm sorry you can't see that. This isn't an exaggeration, a normal person literally wouldn't be able to tell the difference between the old and new balls if they held them. Obviously the players yea, but you no.
What you don't understand is that I'm not denying anything you said, it's all accurate and right on, but the difference is going to be way closer to nonexistent than noticeable whether the general consensus agrees right now or not. How are you and all of your message board buddies not grasping the concept that increasing the flight distance of the balls by 5% isn't going to increase home runs by 50%? That's the dumbest assumption I've ever heard and you're all acting like it's so clear that a .015" seam difference is going to have some huge effect on the game.
Realistically, off speed pitches might break 1/4 to 1/2 an inch less, fastballs might carry a ridiculously small amount better to the plate, and fly balls will go 5% further. Those are literally the only things that the new balls are going to change and it might add 5-10% more to home runs and most offensive categories. When mainieri said that we're going to hit 20 more HR's, as another poster said, he was referring to the fact that our lineup is going to be way better and that's not what we're discussing in this thread. He asked how much the BALL is going to affect the game and the answer is not much and you're an idiot if you keep trying to debate that with me
What you don't understand is that I'm not denying anything you said, it's all accurate and right on, but the difference is going to be way closer to nonexistent than noticeable whether the general consensus agrees right now or not. How are you and all of your message board buddies not grasping the concept that increasing the flight distance of the balls by 5% isn't going to increase home runs by 50%? That's the dumbest assumption I've ever heard and you're all acting like it's so clear that a .015" seam difference is going to have some huge effect on the game.
Realistically, off speed pitches might break 1/4 to 1/2 an inch less, fastballs might carry a ridiculously small amount better to the plate, and fly balls will go 5% further. Those are literally the only things that the new balls are going to change and it might add 5-10% more to home runs and most offensive categories. When mainieri said that we're going to hit 20 more HR's, as another poster said, he was referring to the fact that our lineup is going to be way better and that's not what we're discussing in this thread. He asked how much the BALL is going to affect the game and the answer is not much and you're an idiot if you keep trying to debate that with me
Posted on 1/28/15 at 1:13 pm to southeasttiger113
You're not making sense. 5% increase in distance does not relate to 5-10% increase in HRs. You're not good at math either or how those two number don't relate the way you think they do.
The science is there. The live data is coming in to support the science. People quantify it the best they can.
But you're right. There are certainly other factors that play an even larger part like the batters themselves and the pitchers they face. But PM's comments were in response to a question specifically about the ball. That's why so many are atribiting the 20 value to that change.
And FWIW, I'm in that 1% with you. I've thrown the old college ball and I've thrown the minor league ball. But I also have a physics degree. Not to get too personal...
The science is there. The live data is coming in to support the science. People quantify it the best they can.
But you're right. There are certainly other factors that play an even larger part like the batters themselves and the pitchers they face. But PM's comments were in response to a question specifically about the ball. That's why so many are atribiting the 20 value to that change.
And FWIW, I'm in that 1% with you. I've thrown the old college ball and I've thrown the minor league ball. But I also have a physics degree. Not to get too personal...
Posted on 1/28/15 at 2:55 pm to ell_13
Man, he set that one up on a tee for you, ell.
:insertboomgif:
:insertboomgif:
Posted on 1/28/15 at 2:56 pm to ell_13
Then by all means enlighten me and crunch the numbers, because you really don't across as someone that holds a degree in science. Any dickwad can sit behind a computer and claim to have been a minor league pitcher and physics major but I'm not really seeing where you're contributing any numbers or knowledge to the conversation. I know more than a few people that major in the sciences and they'd have absolutely no problem sitting down and showing me the calculations as to why I'm wrong and why a 5% increase in flight distance would increase the amount of balls that fly 330+ feet by almost 50%
So by all means go ahead, I'll gladly say that I'm wrong if you actually prove that you know anything about baseball or physics
So by all means go ahead, I'll gladly say that I'm wrong if you actually prove that you know anything about baseball or physics
Posted on 1/28/15 at 3:04 pm to southeasttiger113
This post was edited on 1/28/15 at 3:05 pm
Posted on 1/28/15 at 3:06 pm to Draconian Sanctions
There's a reason pitchers pick the seams on the balls.
Posted on 1/28/15 at 3:07 pm to southeasttiger113
quote:
So by all means go ahead, I'll gladly say that I'm wrong if you actually prove that you know anything about baseball or physics
shots fired !
Posted on 1/28/15 at 3:08 pm to southeasttiger113
To answer your question as quickly as I can so you don't think I'm googling, here's as basic as I can make it without going to watch every LSU game from last year.
How many balls were hit to the warning track last year?
A typical warning track is 15ft. A 350 ft hit/out that doesn't leave the park increased by 5% will go 367. Holy fricking shite 17 feet. So that means that any ball that touched the warning track in between the gaps last year, theoretically, would have left the park. This doesn't take into account ball that landed deep on the track closer down the lines.
So how do we come to a number for last year of balls to the track without going through every piece of film? Can we assume it happened once every 2 games? That seems kind of low, but okay. That would lead us to the number I mentioned earlier... 30! OMG!!! Now, all I'm saying is that 2/3 of that number is a good probability.
How many balls were hit to the warning track last year?
A typical warning track is 15ft. A 350 ft hit/out that doesn't leave the park increased by 5% will go 367. Holy fricking shite 17 feet. So that means that any ball that touched the warning track in between the gaps last year, theoretically, would have left the park. This doesn't take into account ball that landed deep on the track closer down the lines.
So how do we come to a number for last year of balls to the track without going through every piece of film? Can we assume it happened once every 2 games? That seems kind of low, but okay. That would lead us to the number I mentioned earlier... 30! OMG!!! Now, all I'm saying is that 2/3 of that number is a good probability.
This post was edited on 1/28/15 at 3:13 pm
Posted on 1/28/15 at 3:09 pm to TigerFanInSouthland
quote:
There's a reason pitchers pick the seams on the balls.
i hate when chicks do this
Posted on 1/28/15 at 3:09 pm to southeasttiger113
quote:
How are you and all of your message board buddies not grasping the concept that increasing the flight distance of the balls by 5% isn't going to increase home runs by 50%? That's the dumbest assumption I've ever heard
Who has said their will be a 50% in homeruns?
You keep repeating this, but I don't think 1 person has said that in this thread. You're exaggerating things to try and support your argument.
Posted on 1/28/15 at 3:11 pm to southeasttiger113
quote:
No I understand it perfectly and, not getting into my personal life, played baseball at a higher level than 99% on this board
You and many others.
Half of the baseball posters claim to have played d1 baseball or higher.
I did not just to clear things up.
Posted on 1/28/15 at 3:11 pm to TigerBait1127
40 HRs to 60 is a 50% increase. It's a number he's trying to compare to distance because he doesn't understand math and science
Posted on 1/28/15 at 3:14 pm to ell_13
quote:
This doesn't take into account ball that landed deep on the track closer down the lines.
It also doesn't take into account increased opportunities at the plate. It should, theoretically, lead to less outs per batter faced.
Hell, how many shots to the gap have we seen just die over the last few years? Didn't the Houston regional have several balls die at the warning track for us?
I know we had a few do that in CWS 2 years ago against UCLA.
Posted on 1/28/15 at 3:14 pm to ell_13
quote:
40 HRs to 60 is a 50% increase. It's a number he's trying to compare to distance because he doesn't understand math and science
Derp. Not sure what I was thinking there.
Posted on 1/28/15 at 3:17 pm to ell_13
You played minor league baseball but you think that a warning track shot happens once every two games? Hmm. Happens closer to once every 5-10. And as I said, the 20 foot figure is extremely fuzzy because it came from a machine simulating the perfect home run ball. Not every ball that goes 300 feet has perfect backspin or is struck right on the screws. You're taking the absolute most ideal figures to support your claim and that's not how real life works, kinda strange for a physicist to make a claim and not take into account rotation, trajectory, etc. Sure wasn't a very scientific explanation for someone that's devoted their life to physics. What field are you in exactly?
Posted on 1/28/15 at 3:21 pm to southeasttiger113
quote:
What field are you in exactly?
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