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Is Mark Cuban onto Something? Student Loan Related

Posted on 1/1/15 at 3:23 pm
Posted by TigerFanInSouthland
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2012
28065 posts
Posted on 1/1/15 at 3:23 pm
LINK

quote:

That’s a real problem for the economy and I think that bubble is going to burst. I think it’s inevitable at some point there’ll be a cap on student loan guarantees and when that happens you’re going to see a repeat of what we saw in the housing market when easy credit for buying or flipping a house disappeared. We saw a collapse in the price of housing and we’re going to see the same collapse in the price of student tuition and that’s going to lead to colleges going out of business.

Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26574 posts
Posted on 1/1/15 at 3:45 pm to
Absolutely
Posted by anc
Member since Nov 2012
17995 posts
Posted on 1/1/15 at 4:06 pm to
All the for profit colleges need to go out of business tomorrow. They are basically diploma mills built on student loans.

Take for instance, the 32 year old mother of three kids by two fathers scenario. We'll call her Debbie. Debbie barely made it through high school, making Cs and Ds and never went to community college. Just started spreading her legs and collecting welfare.

When her oldest kid is about 8 years old, she starts to notice that some of her kids parents do pretty well. She's hung around trash most of her life, you see. Debbie decides its time to go to college. She has no real job, no support and certainly doesn't have the academic profile to go to a traditional 4-year college, so she has two choices: Junior college and for profit colleges.

She heads down to the junior college and the worker gives her a poorly designed brochure, a couple of printouts of Word documents explaining that tuition is about $1000 a semester and that she can easily receive a Pell grant. If she studies hard and keeps a good GPA, a regional college (think SE Louisiana, Delta State, etc.) might give her enough of a scholarship that when combined with her Pell Grant, could lead to very little out of pocket.

Debbie is ready to make the first step. Then Debbie runs into her friend Jasmine. Jasmine goes to Strayer/Capella/Phoenix. Girl, its so easy! she says. So she goes to the big office building just to check it out. They don't have admissions counselors, they have sales people. They treat Debbie like a million bucks. Everything is professionally designed, classrooms look like office training suites rather than classrooms, and there are pictures of business people smiling, wearing suits, etc. A much different view book than the junior college.

Tuition at these places runs about $15,000/semester. Ironically, that's about what the max Pell Grant + student loans run for Debbie. There's no ACT requirement, and with rolling admissions, she can start next week rather than waiting until the beginning of a semester.

Once Debbie signs the paperwork, she's in.The classes are jokes and by the time she realize it, she's either $30,000 in debt or $100k in debt with a worthless degree.

Hey, and they are worthless on the stock market as well.

[link]https://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=COCO
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 1/1/15 at 4:09 pm
Posted by Azazello
Member since Sep 2011
3182 posts
Posted on 1/1/15 at 4:29 pm to
Best explanation ive seen. I know someone who got a "mba" from phoenix.
It did absolutely nothing for him. I dont think he even advertises it anymore and he is in a shitload of debt
Posted by anc
Member since Nov 2012
17995 posts
Posted on 1/1/15 at 4:52 pm to
I did my master's thesis at LSU in Higher Education Administration based on the concept that these for-profit schools are going to ruin higher education if they aren't taken care of.

I loathe Obama, but as seen in the stock prices of the Big 3 for profits, his new higher ed policies are going to be good as far as getting rid of the for profits.

But as far as the OP's point that schools are going to close, he's right. I'm in Mississippi - and there are three publicly funded schools (Alcorn State, MVSU and MUW) that have zero worth to the people of Mississippi. Add to that a couple of tiny privates (Rust, Tougaloo and BMC) that are way behind the bigger privates (MC, Belhaven, Carey), Millsaps) and you have at least six schools that are going to have a hard time surviving.

Without looking at a full compliment of data, I'd imagine in Louisiana that the Southern system and their atrocious graduation rate is on the cutting floor if push comes to shove. The entire LSU system is probably okay. UNO is struggling in the UL system, and Dillard is struggling in a crowded private market around NO, although their endowment is healthy.
This post was edited on 1/1/15 at 4:54 pm
Posted by anc
Member since Nov 2012
17995 posts
Posted on 1/1/15 at 5:05 pm to
Here's some stats to chew on.

96% of students at for-profit colleges take out loans. 13% of community college students, 48% of public college students, and 57% of nonprofit private college students do.

For-profit colleges enroll 13% of higher-education students but receive 25% of federal student aid.

The 15 publicly traded for-profit colleges receive more than 85% of their revenue from federal student loans and aid.

42% of students attending for-profit two-year colleges take out private student loans. 5% of students at community colleges and 18% at private not-for-profit two-year colleges do.

1 in 25 borrowers who graduate from college defaults on his or her student loans. But among graduates of for-profit colleges, the rate is 1 in 5.

Students who attended for-profit schools account for 47% of all student loan defaults.
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 1/1/15 at 6:38 pm to
The problem is not for profit schools.

The problem too easy money. Too much money.

Oh there are some for profit schools that are turning out crap but that doesn't mean we should end for profit schools. We have a bunch of degree at schools like LSU that are crap and we have schools that are crap--SUNO comes to mind quickly.

Despite the fact that "96% of students at for profit colleges take out loans" I suspect the amount of loans going to students at for profit schools pales in comparison to the amount of loans going to public schools.

These loans and grants and TOPS programs have resulted in bloated brick and mortar schools and have held back online education. Like the housing loose money caused unreasonable prices for housing in many parts of the country the student loans have caused unreasonable prices for education.

I agree with Cuban--these loans are going blow up and tuition is going to crash and schools are going to close and in the end it will be a very good thing.

Lower cost schools will be a good thing. If I am in charge of LSU I start looking at ways to make education cheaper quickly. Lots on online classes, less BS degrees, more competition for professorships,expansion of tested competency degrees--like the CPA designation for accounting majors--to prove students have mastered the concentration.

(Have you seen the story about the Korean professor who makes $4 million? LINK)

This post was edited on 1/1/15 at 6:41 pm
Posted by white perch
the bright, happy side of hell
Member since Apr 2012
7122 posts
Posted on 1/1/15 at 7:09 pm to
How do I make money off of the collapse of the education bubble?
Posted by anc
Member since Nov 2012
17995 posts
Posted on 1/1/15 at 7:38 pm to
quote:

If I am in charge of LSU I start looking at ways to make education cheaper quickly. Lots on online classes, less BS degrees, more competition for professorships,expansion of tested competency degrees--like the CPA designation for accounting majors--to prove students have mastered the concentration.


Lots of win here. Most major brick and mortars have been slow to offer online degrees, while regionals and small privates have been doing exactly what you laid out for years.

LSU, for example, offers just six full online degrees. Three in education, two in construction management and an MBA.Louisiana Tech offers 10.

But Penn State, who has been on the cutting edge of online learning since the mid-90s, offers almost every degree that the University Park campus offers. They are the exception, not the rule. And they are thriving.

The SUNY system expects 2/3 of their students to be online by 2025. What you are advocating is happening, albeit slowly. I have noticed a ton of "Why Humanities Professors are Needed" articles in my Facebook feed from Chronicle of Higher Ed and Higher Ed online lately.

Fortunately, I work in an administrative role and only serve as an adjunct professor. Full time professorships are few and far between these days.




Posted by anc
Member since Nov 2012
17995 posts
Posted on 1/1/15 at 7:39 pm to
quote:

How do I make money off of the collapse of the education bubble?



Short DV in 2015. They are going to fall big. New 2016 regulations are going to kill them.
This post was edited on 1/1/15 at 7:40 pm
Posted by I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
27843 posts
Posted on 1/1/15 at 8:10 pm to
One for profit that is doing very well and seems to be offering a very good value to customers is Grand Canyon University. It is a publicly traded for profit and has invested in both brick and mortar and online education.

One thing all these schools should do is to test graduates. That gives the school something to tout in talking to employers. Instead of just a degree they can say the graduates are "LSU certified statisticians" or "LSU certified biologists". They can show employers this comprehensive test that proves the graduate has mastered their field. It would be a way to differentiate a degree from LSU from competitors. Graduates are not only degreed but "LSU certified".
This post was edited on 1/1/15 at 8:13 pm
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
37007 posts
Posted on 1/1/15 at 10:34 pm to
Yes, if a cap was placed on the federal backed guarantee attached to student loans, it would end up capping the amount most kids could borrow, which would lead to a shortage of students, with the end result being deflation of college costs and some schools may go under.

But that insurance isn't free. Companies are willing to make the loans because the loans are damn near impossible to kill off. Once you sign the line, you are on the line for life.

Also... the amount of political capital that such a limitation would cost... well I don't have a lot of faith in our politicians actually doing that. The lobbying, the charges of racism and elitism, etc, that will come out of this will be amazing.
Posted by Lsujacket66
Member since Dec 2010
4786 posts
Posted on 1/2/15 at 1:12 am to
Hmm seems it would be difficult to not make money shorting all the for profit schools. These schools are all the big guys that are on Wall Street.

ITT
Grand Canyon (could be iffy, they're going nonprofit)
Strayer
Capella
Apollo
Devry

Thoughts?
Posted by Azazello
Member since Sep 2011
3182 posts
Posted on 1/2/15 at 1:44 am to
They're going to fall, it's just will it be 2015, 2016, etc.
Posted by Brettesaurus Rex
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2009
38259 posts
Posted on 1/2/15 at 9:35 am to
Yep. I'm thankful I was somewhat financially concerned in making my college decision. I almost ended up with close to 50k in debt just for undergrad instead of the about 17,500 that I did. I'm down to about 4k now three years after graduation and couldn't be happier with my decision.

Unless you're absolutely committed to becoming a doctor, lawyer, or something where you know you can pay them off within your lifetime, people need to take a step back and realize what they're doing to themselves. That's going to be the first conversation I have with my son about where he wants to go. You have to think financially first.
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