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LSU (8-2) vs Charleston (5-6) - Mon 8:00 - PMAC - SECN
Posted on 12/22/14 at 7:56 am
Posted on 12/22/14 at 7:56 am
Who: College of Charleston Cougars (5-6) KenPom 177, RPI 232, BPI 179 vs LSU Tigers (8-2) KenPom 61, RPI 16, BPI 40
When: Monday, December 22 - 8:00pm
Where: PMAC (13,215, 45th NCAA)
How:
***TV: SECN
***Radio: 98.1FM
***Stream: SECN+ via ESPN3.com
After a disappointing 3-2 start to the season, LSU has played one of their stronger months in recent years. The Tigers are 5-0 since late November with two wins against top 50 RPI teams and two true road wins. LSU now finishes off the out of conference season with three home games against sub 200+ RPI teams.
College of Charleston comes into Baton Rouge with a two game losing streak, but they can give anyone a scare with the big equalizer; the three pointer. On the year, College of Charleston is shooting 37.9% from three point range. They score 36% of their points (54th most) from long range making them a dangerous opponent.
C of C Projected Starting Lineup:
Joe Chealey (6'5" 190 So) 30.5MPG, 12.5PPG, 3.2APG, 42.9%3PT, 78.6%FT
Anthony Stitt (6'1" 195 Sr) 34.5MPG, 9.7PPG, 3.5RPG, 31.8%3PT
Canyon Barry (6'6" 205 So) 24.4MPG, 12.1MPG, 5.2RPG, 37.3%3PT, 78.6%FT
Evan Bailey (6'6" 215 Fr) 14.1MPG, 4.6PPG, 2.1RPG, 39.9%3PT
Adjehi Baru (6'9" 250 Sr) 29.3MPG, 9PPG, 6.7RPG, 56.5%FG
LSU Projected Starting Lineup:
Tim Quarterman (6'6" 187 So) 31.5MPG, 11.2PPG, 3.4APG, 5.3PPG, 81.3%FT
Keith Hornsby (6'4" 210 Jr) 35.4MPG, 13.8PPG, 5RPG, 38.3%3PT, 80%FT
Jarell Martin (6'10" 236 So) 34.8MPG, 16.8PPG, 9.0RPG, 76.3%FT
Jordan Mickey (6'8" 235 So) 34.8MPG, 15.9PPG, 9.9RPG, 66.7%FT
John Odo (6'10" 245 Sr) 11.6MPG, 2.5PPG, 1.5RPG, 61.5%FG
I cannot see Charleston beating the Tigers unless they go off from three point range. With that being said, they have four go to shooters. Barry (22), Chealey (15), Stitt (14), and Johnson (13) all have hit over 13 threes on the year. LSU only has Hornsby with over 10 three's made. Those four complete their rotation between the PG, SG, and SF positions. Evan Bailey, their 6'6" PF also has range to stretch a defense which could keep Jordan Mickey out of the lane in order to guard the 39% shooter.
LSU has been well documented for their lack of depth, but Charleston doesn't have much more of a rotation. LSU is 349th out of 351 in bench minutes (Calculated as minutes by those not in top 5 in minutes). Charleston is 296th in bench minutes and basically go 7 players deep. With that being said, Charleston combats their lack of depth by slowing the game down. Their five fastest paced games have all been losses and LSU's ability to speed up the pace of the game could be a factor in this one.
Keys to Victory:
Rebound Battle After out-rebounding their first 8 opponents this year, LSU has lost the rebound battle in each of the past two games. Charleston is not a very good rebounding team, but do play good defense. Extra possessions will be valued against the Cougars.
Getting to the FT Line LSU is shooting a very good 73.2% from the free throw line, but they don't get their often enough. Their 28.8% FTA/FGA is 322nd in the NCAA. LSU cannot settle for three's when they can drive to the hoop.
Defend the Perimeter I don't see Charleston winning this game unless they get hot from three point range. LSU has to defend the perimeter in this one or they could really ruin a good start to the season with a sub 200 loss.
Prediction:
LSU 76, College of Charleston 60
Line: LSU -12.5, 132.5 total
This post was edited on 12/22/14 at 1:55 pm
9
Posted on 12/22/14 at 7:58 am to SouthOfSouth
Need to take care of business tonight 
Posted on 12/22/14 at 8:02 am to SouthOfSouth
Excellent write up as always, as hard as I'm sure it is with the rinky dink teams.
What's the latest on josh gray?
What's the latest on josh gray?
Posted on 12/22/14 at 8:03 am to jptiger2009
quote:
What's the latest on josh gray?
Per an LSU release, Josh Gray is a game-time decision. It would be hard for me to believe he plays to be honest though.
quote:
Excellent write up as always, as hard as I'm sure it is with the rinky dink teams.
Honestly, with the amount of competitive basketball players available, I don't really see anyone being an automatic win anymore. It's easier than you may think to research a non Power5 team. The hardest part is it's very difficult to find film on some of them.
This post was edited on 12/22/14 at 8:06 am
Posted on 12/22/14 at 8:25 am to SouthOfSouth
Thanks as always. I can't get enough of this team!
Posted on 12/22/14 at 8:32 am to SouthOfSouth
Have an upvote 
This post was edited on 12/22/14 at 8:33 am
Posted on 12/22/14 at 8:34 am to ToulaTiger31
Also of note:
LSU currently has a 75% chance of making the NCAA Tournament per playoffstatus.com... That's the 22nd highest chance also. I guess they feel pretty confident we finish 2/3 in the SEC which should be good enough to get us in as long as we finish OOC 11-2.
Up from 71% last week and 63% the week before that.
LSU currently has a 75% chance of making the NCAA Tournament per playoffstatus.com... That's the 22nd highest chance also. I guess they feel pretty confident we finish 2/3 in the SEC which should be good enough to get us in as long as we finish OOC 11-2.
Up from 71% last week and 63% the week before that.
This post was edited on 12/22/14 at 9:16 am
Posted on 12/22/14 at 8:48 am to SouthOfSouth
Woot woot, going to my first b-ball game in 27 years!!!
Posted on 12/22/14 at 8:49 am to SouthOfSouth
It would take a massive collapse for us to not make the dance.
Posted on 12/22/14 at 8:53 am to lwlsu96
quote:
It would take a massive collapse for us to not make the dance.
I agree, especially with the way some of the teams currently ranked are playing. I don't see how we won't make it this year.
Posted on 12/22/14 at 8:53 am to lwlsu96
Umm we aren't a shoe in for the tourney. If we struggle in sec play we won't make the tourney. I certainly wouldn't call it a massive collapse.
Posted on 12/22/14 at 9:12 am to bubbz
quote:
Umm we aren't a shoe in for the tourney. If we struggle in sec play we won't make the tourney. I certainly wouldn't call it a massive collapse.
I agree that we aren't a shoe in, but I also believe if we continue to play like we have over the last month, we will make the tournament.
If we lose a player or two to injury for extended time, we could lose some games that could really hurt us also.
I think the 75% is too high, but I do think we have a good shot at making the tournament. I have seen a lot of 8/9 seed projections so we are still on the cusp. Most people believe we are in the top 40 but not the top 30. I'd really like to work our way into the 5/6 seed range rather than the 8/9 range.
Posted on 12/22/14 at 9:18 am to SouthOfSouth
quote:
Rebound Battle After out-rebounding their first 8 opponents this year, LSU has lost the rebound battle in each of the past two games. Charleston is not a very good rebounding team, but do play good defense. Extra possessions will be valued against the Cougars.
Getting to the FT Line LSU is shooting a very good 73.2% from the free throw line, but they don't get their often enough. Their 28.8% FTA/FGA is 322nd in the NCAA. LSU cannot settle for three's when they can drive to the hoop.
Just need to improve in these areas and keep improving, and we could make some noise in the dance. You can see the potential. we just need more consistency.
Posted on 12/22/14 at 9:28 am to bubbz
I agree we aren't a shoe in, but if we don't have a Rhode Island type loss over the next three games and can pull out a winning record in the SEC we will most likely be dancing. That WVU road win was HUGE and is going to go a long way come March if we are fighting for a bubble bid.
Posted on 12/22/14 at 9:54 am to lwlsu96
Yeah, I'd say we're more likely than not to make it, although we'll need to have a good SEC record. First things first, we have to avoid any landmines with the rest of our non-conference schedule.
Posted on 12/22/14 at 9:56 am to lwlsu96
quote:
It would take a massive collapse for us to not make the dance.
WHOAAAA. Let's pump the brakes just a bit. LSU isn't even half way through their schedule yet and has played exactly ZERO conference games to date. Any tournament spot will be earned in the next 2.5 months. While (at this point) the OOC schedule has looked a little better than it did on paper to start the season, these first 13 games are/were more about just not screwing things up before conference play started. The WVU game was a nice bonus that may be big come March, but unless this team wins at minimum 11 games in conf play, there will be no NCAAT.
The SEC doesn't look very strong outside of UK. You're probably only looking at 4 spots for 14 SEC teams (one of which will be UK). At this point you've got 13 SEC teams that look like they could all beat one another depending on the night. No one in that group has really stood out as being the 2nd best team in conf. LSU is by no means whatsoever a shoe-in barring a massive collapse. Get through these last three OOC games, then a "new" season starts Jan. 8th.
This post was edited on 12/22/14 at 9:57 am
Posted on 12/22/14 at 10:02 am to Alt26
Really like how team is playing (obviously) and also appears like team chemistry is very good (ala Hickey is gone) and that is always a factor.
Posted on 12/22/14 at 10:25 am to secman12
quote:
Really like how team is playing (obviously) and also appears like team chemistry is very good (ala Hickey is gone) and that is always a factor.
Definitely like the way LSU is playing right now. Not sure if chemistry is better with Hickey gone, but I do think the team is more functional when they have a PG who can get into the lane. Quarterman is second on the team in FT attempts. That is a direct result of being able to get into the lane with the ball.
Posted on 12/22/14 at 10:59 am to SouthOfSouth
South, at this point what's you're thoughts on what LSU needs to do during SEC play? Tennessee got in with 11-7 last year and one win in the SEC tournament. Does LSU need to replicate similar numbers? Also, does it favor LSU that we only play Kentucky once and at home for that matter?
Posted on 12/22/14 at 11:01 am to Shadowlink
quote:
South, at this point what's you're thoughts on what LSU needs to do during SEC play? Tennessee got in with 11-7 last year and one win in the SEC tournament. Does LSU need to replicate similar numbers? Also, does it favor LSU that we only play Kentucky once and at home for that matter?
I think 11 wins in SEC play would do it (given we are 11-2 in OOC). MAYBE 10 wins, but 11 would be the target in my mind. A 22 win LSU team with a couple good wins would seem like a lock.
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