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I've got a political/economics question

Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:21 am
Posted by Zach
Gizmonic Institute
Member since May 2005
112331 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:21 am
The GOP points to the dismal jobs picture during Obama's 6 years and the near flat line growth rate since the recession. The Dems point to the booming stock market during Obama's 6 years.

Now, let's think globally. Most of the developed world has had a dismal jobs picture and growth problems for the last 6 years.

Question:

Are the other countries enjoying booming stock markets? If not, what's the difference between them and the U.S.?
Posted by SFVtiger
Member since Oct 2003
4274 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:22 am to
we have money to invest and there's no other viable option? the ? is legit, I'm guessing
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
94529 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:33 am to
The US market is booming because of a bubble, specifically that artificial manipulation of interest rates (Quantitative Easing) has made traditional investments such as CDs, treasury bills, etc, near worthless as investments.


Official interest may be very low but inflation is out there and higher than interest. That means money sitting in investments paying the official rates give you less buying power than investing in a stable stock which pays dividends.


The problem with all of this is that money will leave the stock market pretty damn quick when another investment arises which has a decent return on investment without suffering from market volatility like stocks.
Posted by Rawdawgs
Member since Dec 2007
910 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:33 am to
Printing money like crazy to keep interest rates down means everything goes into the stock market. Problem is manufacturing a graceful exit from loose monetary policy without crashing the market may be tough.
Posted by Sid in Lakeshore
Member since Oct 2008
41956 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:39 am to
quote:

Printing money like crazy to keep interest rates down means everything goes into the stock market.


That and the relatively weak economies worldwide cause overseas investors to seek safe havens for their money. US Stock Market is the safe haven.
Posted by Hawkeye95
Member since Dec 2013
20293 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:41 am to
quote:

Printing money like crazy to keep interest rates down means everything goes into the stock market.


That and the relatively weak economies worldwide cause overseas investors to seek safe havens for their money. US Stock Market is the safe haven.


FTR, its not just the US that is printing money - japan and europe are running those presses too. And their stock markets have struggled.
Posted by Zach
Gizmonic Institute
Member since May 2005
112331 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:43 am to
quote:

The US market is booming because of a bubble, specifically that artificial manipulation of interest rates (Quantitative Easing) has made traditional investments such as CDs, treasury bills, etc, near worthless as investments.


Thanks. But aren't the other developed nations doing the same thing? Are their stock markets not experiencing a bubble?
Posted by Hawkeye95
Member since Dec 2013
20293 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:48 am to
quote:

Thanks. But aren't the other developed nations doing the same thing? Are their stock markets not experiencing a bubble?


its much more complicated than that.

There are big drags in other places - ukraine/europe, nuclear meltdown/japan, china/general slowing.

While US corporations are continuing to generate incredible profits.

While we are probably in a bit of a bubble, at least we have good earnings to support these incredible valuations.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118490 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:56 am to
quote:

FTR, its not just the US that is printing money - japan and europe are running those presses too. And their stock markets have struggled.


The Federal Reserve have mothballed the printing press. Thus, a stronger dollar compared to other currencies and a factor for lower gasoline prices.
Posted by Zach
Gizmonic Institute
Member since May 2005
112331 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 10:57 am to
I'm certainly one of those people described above by another poster. I've bought more stock over the last 6 years for one reason... savings accounts and CDs are worthless.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118490 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:01 am to
quote:

I'm certainly one of those people described above by another poster. I've bought more stock over the last 6 years for one reason... savings accounts and CDs are worthless.


It's interesting how Fed policy can drive personal investment decisions.
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
67928 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:04 am to
quote:

The Dems point to the booming stock market during Obama's 6 years.


The Dems love the 1%.
Posted by CherryGarciaMan
Sugar Magnolia
Member since Aug 2012
2497 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 11:17 am to
quote:

The US market is booming because of a bubble, specifically that artificial manipulation of interest rates (Quantitative Easing) has made traditional investments such as CDs, treasury bills, etc, near worthless as investments. Official interest may be very low but inflation is out there and higher than interest. That means money sitting in investments paying the official rates give you less buying power than investing in a stable stock which pays dividends. The problem with all of this is that money will leave the stock market pretty damn quick when another investment arises which has a decent return on investment without suffering from market volatility like stocks.



It's The above
+
The dollar tied to oil, which means that the world's energy source is only traded in dollars, which means we're King Kong.
Posted by UncleFestersLegs
Member since Nov 2010
10778 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

If not, what's the difference between them and the U.S.?

Posted by UncleFestersLegs
Member since Nov 2010
10778 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 12:27 pm to
quote:

FTR, its not just the US that is printing money - japan and europe are running those presses too. And their stock markets have struggled.

Japan Just Boosted QE And The Nikkei Exploded To A 7-Year High
Posted by TerryDawg03
The Deep South
Member since Dec 2012
15582 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

The GOP points to the dismal jobs picture during Obama's 6 years and the near flat line growth rate since the recession. The Dems point to the booming stock market during Obama's 6 years.


I'd say people are parking cash anywhere they can to get a higher return, including stock market, NNN CRE deals, and low grade rental properties.

The idea that the stock market's performance is an indicator of the economy might have worked in a more simplified economic environment, but with government controlling the price/return of money in cash equivalent investments, people are chasing return. Watch cap rates. They're getting pretty darn low again.

ETA: The CAPM has shown itself to be inadequate as a risk pricing tool in ultra-low rate environments, IMO.
This post was edited on 12/3/14 at 12:38 pm
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
36892 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 12:37 pm to
One of the reason our stock market is up, is because corporate profits are up. One reason corp profits are up, is companies are learning to do more with less workers. Thus, stagnant job growth.

So on one hand, the GOP is complaining about anemic job growth, on the other hand, part of the anemic job growth means companies pay less in wages, which adds to profits, which helps their stock portfolios.

Democrats are in the same tank.

One day people will realize the real battle isn't right vs left, it's those who control companies vs everyone else.
Posted by Wtodd
Tampa, FL
Member since Oct 2013
67474 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

there's no other viable option

Correct.....no other place to invest
Posted by TerryDawg03
The Deep South
Member since Dec 2012
15582 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

One of the reason our stock market is up, is because corporate profits are up. One reason corp profits are up, is companies are learning to do more with less workers. Thus, stagnant job growth.


Good point. Attrition and innovation have increased efficiency and reduced the need for labor.
This post was edited on 12/3/14 at 12:41 pm
Posted by Vegas Bengal
Member since Feb 2008
26344 posts
Posted on 12/3/14 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

The GOP points to the dismal jobs picture during Obama's 6 years and the near flat line growth rate since the recession


You're living in the past:

quote:

On Tuesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second estimate of real gross domestic product for the third quarter of 2014 — covering July, August and September of this year. The release showed output in the U.S. increasing at an annual rate of 3.9%. This is relative to the second quarter when real GDP gained 4.6%.


quote:

Joseph Lake, U.S. analyst for The Economist Intelligence Unit, described the U.S. economy as “in rude health, outperforming most countries in the developed world.” Lake pointed out that the U.S. economy has grown at an annual rate of more than 3% for four of the past five quarters, which he says suggests the country “is finally casting aside the shackles imposed by the financial crisis.” While the growth was distributed across most components Lake noted that government spending and net exports were among the strongest gainers but “their momentum is unlikely to persist.”
LINK



If a Republican were in office, you guys would be dancing in the streets.
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