re: SB Nation's Division Realignment Proposal

I actually went out and did the calculations...

In theory, numbers can't tell the story 100% of the time, but that slight change of the SOS isn't a SD change. 0.521-0.509 = 0.012 = 1.2% change. Keep that number in your head.

The argument last year was that it was unfair that a Phoenix with 48-34 sits at home because of how loaded the west was. But a <.500 team in the east get to go play. Remember, 49 wins for Dallas was 8th.

So Phoenix w/ that SOS went .585 (48-34) last year. In theory, harder SOS would have put them at a disadvantage, so based off percentages it'd be 46.89 wins.

46.89 wins would have still put them at 9th in the western conference. 46.89 wins would have put them at 5th in the East (4th was 48 wins for chicago) where they would have made the playoffs, even with a harder SOS.

Lets just look at the actual SOS and division and how it would look vs. the new SOS division

Phoenix went 8-8 (0.500) in their division last year:
Sacramento: 2-2
Golden State: 2-2
LA Lakers 3-1
LA Clippers 1-3

Suns vs. their new division
(5)Denver 4-0 (1.00) -> 5 wins
(5)OKC 2-1 (0.667) -> 3.34 wins
(4)Dallas 1-2 (0.334) -> 1.34 wins
(4)SAS 1-3 (0.250) -> 1 win
(4)Houston 1-2 (0.334) -> 1.34 wins

12.02-9.98 (0.546) win percentage in the new division
8-8 (0.500) win percentage in the old division
Or you can do it another way - old system they went:
6-1 vs. OKC/Denver = .857 x 10 = 8.571
3-7 vs. Dal/SA/HOU = .300 x 10 = 3.000
11.57-10.43 (.526) (that takes away the factor of wins/losses weighing too heavily based off reduction/addition of sample size)

So in division, they actually got better?

Assuming you rotate what division you play 2/3x a year, I'll just use the closest two regions for 3games/ea = 36 games total to make it easier.
Sacramento: 2-2 (.500) -> 1.5 wins
Portland: 3-1 (.750) -> 2.25 wins
Golden State: 2-2 (.500) -> 1.5 wins
LA Clippers: 1-3 (.250) -> 0.75 wins
LA Lakers: 3-1 (.750) -> 2.25 wins
Utah: 2-2 (.500) -> 1.5 wins
Miami: 0-2 (.000) -> 0 wins
Orlando: 2-0 (1.000) -> 3 wins
New Orleans: 4-0 (1.000) -> 3 wins
Charlotte: 2-0 (1.000) -> 3 wins
Atlanta: 2-0 (1.000) -> 3 wins
Memphis: 0-4 (0.000) -> 0 wins
Theoretical Total: 21.75-14.25 (.604)
Last year: 23-17 (.575)
other equation: 20.7-15.3

Now the last part: Far regions 2 games/ea = 24 games total
Minnesota: 2-1 (.667) -> 1.334 Wins
Milwaukee: 2-0 (1.00) -> 2 Wins
Chicago: 0-2 (0.00) -> 0 wins
Indiana: 2-0 (1.00) -> 2 wins
Detroit: 1-1 (0.500) -> 1 win
Cleveland: 1-1 (0.500) -> 1 win
Toronto: 2-0 (1.00) -> 2 wins
Boston: 2-0 (1.00) -> 2 wins
NYK: 1-1 (0.500) - 1 win
Brooklyn: 0-2 (0.00) -> 0 wins
Philly: 2-0 (1.00) -> 2 wins
Washington: 1-1 (.500) -> 1 win
Theoretical Total: 15.334-8.666 (.639)
Last year: 16-8 (.667)
other equation: 16-8 (.667)

New SOS Record: 49.1-32.9 (.599)
Old SOS Record: 48-34 (.585)
Other Equation: 48.3-33.7 (.589)

Remember that number? 1.2% change?
49.1-48.0 = 1.1 = 1.34% change in Wins
Going by the "dirty" equation: 0.4% change in wins

Know what that means? More difficult SOS is not a direct positive correlation to wins 100% of the time. So in other words, their schedule might be harder, but in theory they would still get 49.1 wins in the new settings. If it was only a 1% change for Phoenix, the way the guys at SBNation set it up, it would alter everyone's roughly by 1%.

quote:

---

So you reshuffle the entire league? How often are they going to do this?

---

Get rid of conferences, and there would be nothing left to reshuffle. You'd end any conference advantage.

Nothing?

And excellent post, htran

I disagree. Basketball fans around the country would be excited about the best four teams, regardless of where they are from, competing for a championship in an epic semifinal.

I would certainly prefer that to what we have now, where everybody knows the two teams in the eastern side of the semifinals have absolutely no shot at winning the championship.

quote:

---

You think fans outside of texas/OKC wouldn't watch Dallas, Houston, SAS, and OKC play it out?

---

Basketball fans, yes. Regular everyday watchers, probably not. This would be like the Yankees and the Red Sox playing in the World Series. I'm not watching that crap. I get tired enough of it during the regular season. I get that they might be the best two teams, but this has played out for the whole history of the league and in every sport.

Like I just said earlier, the Spurs and Lakers have dominated basketball for the past 15 years (10 titles, 13 times in the finals). That's what has made everything unbalanced. Those teams are either done or will be fairly soon. Why change it now? There hasn't been a great injustice done. Literally one team didn't make it in last season that should have by record (Suns). That's really good. I don't think they should re-do everything just to accommodate one team.

quote:

---

You think fans outside of texas/OKC wouldn't watch Dallas, Houston, SAS, and OKC play it out?

---

I think they would, millions of people already watch the western and Eastern conference finals so why wouldn't they want to watch the best possible compitition going at it in the finals even if it is all in the same geographic area.

It ensures that the best play the best. Isn't that the purpose of playoffs in the first place?

I love the idea, I would love seeing playoff series of clippers and wizards or raptors and warriors. How great would that be?!

quote:

---

These are specific examples of "problems" that will even out over time.

---

Yeah, the real structural negative about this plan is there is nothing to stop a single division from dominating a la the SEC in the BCS. Look at the Big West division. It's not unthinkable that over the next 5 years both Finals teams could come from there. But if the goal is to have the 2 best teams play for a title then it would be better for that than the current conference structure. Some of you may be too young to remember the SuperBowl dominance by the NFC in the 80s, but it really took a lot of the luster off the title game itself. You were rarely treated to a competitive battle of equals which is part of why people started caring as much about the commercials as the game.

Those SuperBowls in the 80's sucked. We've had some pretty competitive Finals in recent years, but what if LeBron had decided to go build a big 3 out west instead of in Miami. Think how lopsided the Finals would have been the last few years and how most people would have been saying the real championship was the Western Conference Finals. That's bad for basketball.

But it hasn't worked out that way fortunately. At the end of the day nobody cares that the 9-12th teams in the west should have made the playoffs. As long as there is balance among the top teams the system does what it should do. And the strength of the West in part keeps the top of the East strong by keeping Eastern stars from wanting to migrate West. Until the top falls in the East as well there won't be enough support behind realignment proposals to make them happen.

quote:

---

Why is this such a priority now? This situation happens in almost every sport. You don't just throw away over 60 years of history and a system that makes the most sense to try to create or manufacture competitive balance. Sometimes it works in your favor, sometimes it don't. I'm sure the 4-5 NFC teams that finish with better records than the Saints or Falcons will think it is bull shite too, when they get left out of the playoffs. But the NFL isn't going to realign the divisions because of it.

---

This has been brought up for a while now

And it's not by pels fans as you and boom imply.