I posted this back on 11/28/2012, and have since updated the winning %s. Most of you need to curb your enthusiasm regarding Miles getting canned and his mythical replacement...

Everytime I see someone arguing that LSU is better off with Miles, the root of their argument is that LSU would hire a slamdunk, sure fire head coach to replace him. Hell, I'm a Miles guy, but if I knew I would get Jim Harbaugh to replace him, I would be fine. But that is not how these things work.

With Miles, LSU can be anywhere from 8-5 to 13-1, and we will likely maintain an .810 winning percentage. We will compete for conference and national championships, and we will scratch our heads at some of his moves the whole time.

However, without Miles, who actually knows what we will be? Is there a coach out there that could improve upon what Miles has done? Sure. But the problem is that the vast majority of coaches will likely underperform Miles, and that is simply not a risk worth taking.

For LSU, the only available coach in the country who is a sure-fire, slam dunk kind of guy is already at the helm.

--I've made my point, but keep reading for further evidence and save the tl;dr responses--

Perhaps we can learn from history that the grass is not always greener on the other side...

Nebraska 2003: Fired Frank Solich (.766 W%) and hired Bill Callahan. AD said he would not "let Nebraska gravitate into mediocrity" with Solich. Callahan was fired after 4 seasons and a .551 W%.

Tennessee 2008: Forced Phillip Fulmer (.745 W%) to step down. Volunteers are looking for their 3rd coach since then and sport a .449 W% since Fulmer was let go. Of note is the fact that Tennessee still sports a higher all-time winning percentage than LSU, but it did not insulate them from mediocrity.

Florida 2002: Steve Spurrier left after posting a .813 W% at Florida. It was a premier program in the country at the time. The Florida AD was turned down by Mike Shanahan and Bob Stoops. Ron Zook ultimately landed the job and proceeded to go 23-14 over three seasons at a school that took six years to lose 14 games before Zook got there.

Michigan 2007: Forced out Lloyd Carr (.753 W%) for his lackluster record against Ohio State (6-7). Hired hot-shot Rich Rodriguez and limped to a 15-22 record over the next 3 seasons.

Alabama 1997: Even Alabama is not infallible. After Gene Stallings retired in 1996 with an .805 W%, it took Alabama 10 seasons, 4 coaches, a .553 W%, and a textbook scandal to get Nick Saban. That record includes their forfeited wins. Officially, Alabama had a losing record during that span and a .486 W%.

In fact, since 2000, I can only find 4 programs that have replaced coaches with .700+ W% and had even greater success with the newcomer.

TCU replaced Dennis Franchionne (.714 W%) with Gary Patterson in 2000, and Patterson has led TCU to a .741 W% since then.

Boise State in 2000 replaced Dirk Koetter (.722 W%) with Dan Hawkins, who posted a .828 W% from 2001-2005. Boise found even greater success replacing Hawkins with Chris Petersen who has produced a .885 W% since 2006.

Miami in 2001 replaced Butch Davis (.718 W%) with Larry Coker, who went 60-15 from 2001-2006 for a .800 W%. Coker was fired in 2006 after posting consecutively worse seasons each year, so I think this actually strenghtens my argument.

And finally, LSU in 2005, who replaced Nick Saban and his .750 W% with Les Miles, who has posted an .785 W% since then.

Very long story short, any rational observer can see that there is little reason to be excited over having to replace Les Miles.