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Message
Rob Ryan: Cannot make 2nd Year Adjustments (w/Stats)... LONG
Posted on 11/16/14 at 6:06 pm
Posted on 11/16/14 at 6:06 pm
I'm starting to think that Ryan has "first year defense" that ROCKS because Opponents won't figure it out the first time around UNLESS you have a smart, defensive-minded HC.
Check out who we lost to in 2013:
NY Jets
NE Patriots
St Louis Rams
Seattle Seahawks (twice)
Carolina Panthers (2nd time we played them)
What do all these teams have in common?
So... You've got first year Ryan D... but he doesn't have any clue how to evolve it. Some coaches don't have the ability to make 2nd half adjustments. I don't think he can make season to season adjustments. I know this was discussed when he was first hired - but I think his record is worth revisiting...
Offense Rank ___ of 32 for Highest PPG and YPG
Defense Rank ___ of 32 for Fewest PPG and YPG allowed
TOs Rank Def ___ of 32 for Most Turnovers caused per game (INTs and FFs)
................................................. Off .............. Def
Year Team .................W L......... P ..Y........... P ..Y....... TOs
2012 Dallas Cowboys. 8 .8 ..... ... 15 6 ..... .... 24 19 .... ... 27
2011 Dallas Cowboys. 8 .8 ..... ... 15 11 ..... ... 16 14 .... ...10 * Inherited Phillips' D
2010 Clevelnd Browns 5 11..... ... 31 29...... ... 13 22...... .. 15 **Mangini HC
2009 Clevelnd Browns 5 11 ..... ... 29 32 ...... . 21 31..... .. 29 **Mangini HC
2008 Oakland Raiders 5 11..... ... 29 29..... ... 24 27...... .. 15
2007 Oakland Raiders 4 12..... ... 23 25..... ... 26 22...... .. 28
2006 Oakland Raiders 2 14..... ... 32 32....... . 18 .3....... .. 32 *88*HC Art Shell
2005 Oakland Raiders 4 12...... .. 23 21...... .. 25 27..... ... 18
2004 Oakland Raiders 5 11...... .. 18 17..... ... 31 30...... .. 29
* Wade Phillips was cut loose in 2010. From 2007-2009 - The Cowboys were Top 10 in fewest yds allowed
** Eric Mangini was HC while Ryan was DC. Mangini was a position coach and DC for the Patriots from 2000-2005. 3 Superbowl wins under HC Bill Belicheck
*** Only really good year for Ryan as Raiders DC was during Art Shell's 1 year stint in his second tour as HC. Shell was the Raiders HC from 1989-1994. During that time his D was Top 10 in fewest yards allowed 5 times. 3 playoff appearances and only 1 season below .500 (twice had double digit wins). These were the Sapp/Asomugha Raiders.
THEN: DEFENSE FIRST HEAD COACHES - THE GOOD AND THE BAD
Defenses under Ryan's tenure rank in the bottom 3rd of the league. "Middle of the Road" Ryan Defenses generally occur when he is working under a proven Defensive-minded HC. The middling numbers in general can also be attributed to having a sub-par offense (which is not uncommon for a Defense First HC) - So I made sure to include the corresponding Offense rankings for some context.
NOW: OFFENSE FIRST HEAD COACH - A BRAVE NEW WORLD
Well - Rob Ryan got himself a top ranked Offense last year... and his first-year D did it's thing. In 2014 we retained all full-time starters on D with the exception of Malcolm Jenkins (Greer was lost after 10 games/Harper only started 5 games in '13). In the off-season, Payton (being the Offensive guru) left Rob to his own devices... No annoying More Experienced Defensive HC or Jerry Jones looking over his shoulder and checking his work. Mad Scientist mode engage. Results: Instead of "doing what we did best" - Ryan tried to get all super-cute and "next-level" things with overly-complex and completely unproven schemes that looked great when he drew them up in orange cheeto dust on his belly.
Is it possible that Champ Baily wasn't just "not 100%"... but figured out Rob Ryan was smoke and mirrors? ...perhaps butted heads a little after a few too many WTF? looks (noticed by teammates)? Wouldn't be surprised.
So now we have the Defense dictating the Offense. Welcome to the 9th level of Payton's Inferno.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: CONJECTURE, OF COURSE
I honestly think Payton has been so run run run oriented because he realizes that opponent's have figured out last year's D... and this year's model is the equivalent of New Coke. A few new ingredients and a lot of fancy talk... but it's not the same and it's not even close to the original. Last year the D was pretty much plug n' play. Injuries happened and the next guy up filled his shoes. Haralson, Humber, Bush and John Jenkins all had multiple starts after coming off the bench. We are 10 games into the season and I don't think YOUTH is a viable excuse for allowing the same kind of plays to beat us game after game. I have a feeling he was SEETHING on the sideline today watching Dalton and the Bengals make a slumpbuster of us (Moped-style).
I'm going to go out on a limb and post this here for "I told ya so" credit: If there isn't some significant improvement in the next couple games - Ryan will be done before the season ends. A tall order considering the Ravens are up next followed by a trip to always balmy Pittsburgh.
Time to start the "Who's our new DC?" engine?
...or am I overreacting?
Check out who we lost to in 2013:
NY Jets
NE Patriots
St Louis Rams
Seattle Seahawks (twice)
Carolina Panthers (2nd time we played them)
What do all these teams have in common?
So... You've got first year Ryan D... but he doesn't have any clue how to evolve it. Some coaches don't have the ability to make 2nd half adjustments. I don't think he can make season to season adjustments. I know this was discussed when he was first hired - but I think his record is worth revisiting...
Offense Rank ___ of 32 for Highest PPG and YPG
Defense Rank ___ of 32 for Fewest PPG and YPG allowed
TOs Rank Def ___ of 32 for Most Turnovers caused per game (INTs and FFs)
................................................. Off .............. Def
Year Team .................W L......... P ..Y........... P ..Y....... TOs
2012 Dallas Cowboys. 8 .8 ..... ... 15 6 ..... .... 24 19 .... ... 27
2011 Dallas Cowboys. 8 .8 ..... ... 15 11 ..... ... 16 14 .... ...10 * Inherited Phillips' D
2010 Clevelnd Browns 5 11..... ... 31 29...... ... 13 22...... .. 15 **Mangini HC
2009 Clevelnd Browns 5 11 ..... ... 29 32 ...... . 21 31..... .. 29 **Mangini HC
2008 Oakland Raiders 5 11..... ... 29 29..... ... 24 27...... .. 15
2007 Oakland Raiders 4 12..... ... 23 25..... ... 26 22...... .. 28
2006 Oakland Raiders 2 14..... ... 32 32....... . 18 .3....... .. 32 *88*HC Art Shell
2005 Oakland Raiders 4 12...... .. 23 21...... .. 25 27..... ... 18
2004 Oakland Raiders 5 11...... .. 18 17..... ... 31 30...... .. 29
* Wade Phillips was cut loose in 2010. From 2007-2009 - The Cowboys were Top 10 in fewest yds allowed
** Eric Mangini was HC while Ryan was DC. Mangini was a position coach and DC for the Patriots from 2000-2005. 3 Superbowl wins under HC Bill Belicheck
*** Only really good year for Ryan as Raiders DC was during Art Shell's 1 year stint in his second tour as HC. Shell was the Raiders HC from 1989-1994. During that time his D was Top 10 in fewest yards allowed 5 times. 3 playoff appearances and only 1 season below .500 (twice had double digit wins). These were the Sapp/Asomugha Raiders.
THEN: DEFENSE FIRST HEAD COACHES - THE GOOD AND THE BAD
Defenses under Ryan's tenure rank in the bottom 3rd of the league. "Middle of the Road" Ryan Defenses generally occur when he is working under a proven Defensive-minded HC. The middling numbers in general can also be attributed to having a sub-par offense (which is not uncommon for a Defense First HC) - So I made sure to include the corresponding Offense rankings for some context.
NOW: OFFENSE FIRST HEAD COACH - A BRAVE NEW WORLD
Well - Rob Ryan got himself a top ranked Offense last year... and his first-year D did it's thing. In 2014 we retained all full-time starters on D with the exception of Malcolm Jenkins (Greer was lost after 10 games/Harper only started 5 games in '13). In the off-season, Payton (being the Offensive guru) left Rob to his own devices... No annoying More Experienced Defensive HC or Jerry Jones looking over his shoulder and checking his work. Mad Scientist mode engage. Results: Instead of "doing what we did best" - Ryan tried to get all super-cute and "next-level" things with overly-complex and completely unproven schemes that looked great when he drew them up in orange cheeto dust on his belly.
Is it possible that Champ Baily wasn't just "not 100%"... but figured out Rob Ryan was smoke and mirrors? ...perhaps butted heads a little after a few too many WTF? looks (noticed by teammates)? Wouldn't be surprised.
So now we have the Defense dictating the Offense. Welcome to the 9th level of Payton's Inferno.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: CONJECTURE, OF COURSE
I honestly think Payton has been so run run run oriented because he realizes that opponent's have figured out last year's D... and this year's model is the equivalent of New Coke. A few new ingredients and a lot of fancy talk... but it's not the same and it's not even close to the original. Last year the D was pretty much plug n' play. Injuries happened and the next guy up filled his shoes. Haralson, Humber, Bush and John Jenkins all had multiple starts after coming off the bench. We are 10 games into the season and I don't think YOUTH is a viable excuse for allowing the same kind of plays to beat us game after game. I have a feeling he was SEETHING on the sideline today watching Dalton and the Bengals make a slumpbuster of us (Moped-style).
I'm going to go out on a limb and post this here for "I told ya so" credit: If there isn't some significant improvement in the next couple games - Ryan will be done before the season ends. A tall order considering the Ravens are up next followed by a trip to always balmy Pittsburgh.
Time to start the "Who's our new DC?" engine?
...or am I overreacting?
5
Posted on 11/16/14 at 6:09 pm to yurintroubl
I think you're overreacting. Ryans scheme is based on having good press cover corners and we don't have any besides Lewis who's been hobbled recently.
I think we would have been great defense this year had Greer been healthy and Byrd didn't go out for the year. White is a good nickel but just can't cut it starting.
I think we're also suffering from a jekkyl and Hyde front 7. Some games they're incredible at stopping the run and/or getting after the QB. Other games we get run over and can't get any pressure. I think we're another CB and another front 7 piece away from being dominant the again.
I think we would have been great defense this year had Greer been healthy and Byrd didn't go out for the year. White is a good nickel but just can't cut it starting.
I think we're also suffering from a jekkyl and Hyde front 7. Some games they're incredible at stopping the run and/or getting after the QB. Other games we get run over and can't get any pressure. I think we're another CB and another front 7 piece away from being dominant the again.
This post was edited on 11/16/14 at 6:13 pm
Posted on 11/16/14 at 6:14 pm to yurintroubl
Sometimes the guys on the field just have to make a play, A play. Last week, Detroit, Browns, just a freaking play. Cover the correct guy, tackle, things like that. We do those things and this discussion doesn't come up. What DC is gonna look good with Corey White out there, and Hawthorne is good for 1 hard hit a game and that's it.
Eta: I was huge on us bringing in Hawthorne. I remember watching him a couple times in Seattle and wishing we had him. He is pretty much good for about 4 games a year, GB being the only one I can think of this year.
Eta: I was huge on us bringing in Hawthorne. I remember watching him a couple times in Seattle and wishing we had him. He is pretty much good for about 4 games a year, GB being the only one I can think of this year.
This post was edited on 11/16/14 at 6:19 pm
Posted on 11/16/14 at 6:20 pm to yurintroubl
#1 I doubt very seriously that is your own research
#2 we got rid of consistent and bet on an over priced free agent and a second rounder who couldn't cover my grandmother
#2 we got rid of consistent and bet on an over priced free agent and a second rounder who couldn't cover my grandmother
Posted on 11/16/14 at 6:27 pm to yurintroubl
Honestly, I think you are right. Today is a different ballgame if Dixon recovers that fumble. Dude tried to scoop and run, but when you have a loose ball on your side of the field, you are supposed to lay on the ball and not try to run away with it immediately. If our DBs knew the correct fundamentals we would have had the ball. Instead, they scored. That changed the tide of the game completely. I guarantee if Byrd was there he would have recovered that fumble.
That being said, Ryan's scheme is so predictable now. We don't have big play making DBs like Ryan wants us too. It worked last year with Greer, but look what happened once Greer got injured. We started giving up big plays. Also, what the hell happened with Vaccaro? Why is he playing a different position this year? Should be playing the same position as a coverage LB like he had last season. He was much better at that.
That being said, Ryan's scheme is so predictable now. We don't have big play making DBs like Ryan wants us too. It worked last year with Greer, but look what happened once Greer got injured. We started giving up big plays. Also, what the hell happened with Vaccaro? Why is he playing a different position this year? Should be playing the same position as a coverage LB like he had last season. He was much better at that.
Posted on 11/16/14 at 6:34 pm to yurintroubl
Our front 4 is not getting pressure consistently. You can have Revis on the other side of Lewis but if you can't get pressure on the QB then recievers will find a way to get open. That being said, our secondary outside of Lewis is not very good. No pressure from the front 4 + a not talented secondary is a recipe for disaster. RR is making the right calls but the guys just aren't winning their 1 on 1 match ups.
This post was edited on 11/16/14 at 7:17 pm
Posted on 11/16/14 at 6:36 pm to Brettesaurus Rex
There was a lot of talk about having to go back and simplify the defense to an extent during that bye week between Tampa and Detroit in Week 6... That's not something you generally have to just because you have lost one player.
We played our last 9 games in 2013 without Greer and were 5-2 vs teams not called the Seahawks. Opponents averaged 18.7 ppg for those games. This year opponents are averaging 25 ppg (Half of the teams we played in the bottom 12 in scoring).
We have to run bc we can't stop anybody.
ETA:
bolding
We played our last 9 games in 2013 without Greer and were 5-2 vs teams not called the Seahawks. Opponents averaged 18.7 ppg for those games. This year opponents are averaging 25 ppg (Half of the teams we played in the bottom 12 in scoring).
We have to run bc we can't stop anybody.
ETA:
bolding
This post was edited on 11/16/14 at 6:38 pm
Posted on 11/16/14 at 6:44 pm to yurintroubl
it won't get any easier now that Bush is out.
if the pressure isn't there from the front four, it will get real ugly.
think about when we have to play Pittsburgh and Chicago on the road. Both of those offenses will be tough matchups.
and the run D was pretty weak today even though it hasn't been all that bad this year.
the pass defense has been pretty bad all year though.
leave it up to the Saints to let Andy Dalton have his redemption game.
the guys just weren't alert out there today. The fumble by Gresham was a prime example.
if the pressure isn't there from the front four, it will get real ugly.
think about when we have to play Pittsburgh and Chicago on the road. Both of those offenses will be tough matchups.
and the run D was pretty weak today even though it hasn't been all that bad this year.
the pass defense has been pretty bad all year though.
leave it up to the Saints to let Andy Dalton have his redemption game.
the guys just weren't alert out there today. The fumble by Gresham was a prime example.
Posted on 11/16/14 at 7:36 pm to KindaRaw
I think it maybe time for Payton to give Dennis Allen a phone call.
Posted on 11/16/14 at 7:38 pm to lsusystem
During his tenure our DBs played pretty well, granted we had a decent pass rush then. They were very good with TOs though, especially in 09.
Posted on 11/16/14 at 7:39 pm to lsusystem
Anyone but our current DB coach.
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