11/20/updates :Detailed Congressional Elections Update as of November 15th

As of the very early hours of Saturday morning (11/15), this is where things stand in the 2014 House elections for the 114th Congress:

Republican seats won - 244

Democrat seats won - 188 (updated 11/20)

Still Undetermined - 3 (updated 11/20)

The Republicans won 242 seats in the 2010 "revolt" year (Democrats took back 8 of those in the 2012 presidential year.) That 242 number was the highest for the GOP since they won 246 seats in November of 1946 for the 80th Congress.

With 5 seats still officially undecided, here's a look at those races as they stand right up to the minute of this post. Winning 3 of those 5 seats would move the number to 247 and result in the largest Republican representation since the 267 seats they held in the 71st Congress (the first two years of the ill-fated Hoover presidency).


Arizona's 2nd CD:

All votes have now been counted and Republican Martha McSally holds a 161 vote lead over incumbent Democrat Ron Barber for the seat once held by Gabby Giffords. (Barber worked for Giffords and was among those shot in the attempt on Giffords' life.)

In order to avoid a mandatory recount, a candidate must win by at least .10% of the total vote, and McSally came up short, winning by .08%.

The recount cannot take place until after the December 1st certification of election results. This is the real toss-up of the remaining races, and the one that will likely determine whether the GOP just ties its 80th Congress number or whether it reaches the 247 needed to surpass it.

_____________________________________

California's 7th CD:

Incumbent Democrat Dr. Ami (think "ah-me", not "Amy") Bera leads former Republican congressman Doug Ose by 697 votes with approximately 11,000 votes still to be counted. Ose led by about 3,000 votes on Election night, but saw that lead dwindle and then disappear as daily tabulations have continued. Most believe Bera will add to his lead and be reelected once all votes are counted.

________________________________________

California's 16th CD:

Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa leads Republican challenger Johnny Tacherra by 700 votes with approximately 4,100 provisional ballots yet to be tabulated. On Wednesday of this week, Costa led by only 75 votes. 1.415 additional ballots were counted on Thursday and Friday and Costa won 72% of those, vaulting him into what seems to be an insurmountable lead, and thus a likely return to his seat in the House.

Tacherra was a feel good Cinderella story though it now appears he has turned into a pumpkin. He stunningly led Costa by 736 votes on Election night in a race that had been labeled "solid Democrat hold". Tacherra had only one paid staffer and no outside funding. With that initial lead in his pocket he went to D.C. for freshman orientation activities for incoming House members this week. One could say it's good practice in case he runs again in the future and wins. While Costa, like Bera, appears to be the likely winner, Tacherra, like Ose, still clings to a sliver of hope.

________________________________________

Louisiana's 5th CD:

Democrat Jamie Mayo vs. Republican Ralph Abraham on December 6th for the Vance McAllister seat. Abraham is the likely winner.

________________________________________

Louisiana's 6th CD:

Democrat Edwin Edwards vs. Republican Garret Graves on December 6th for the Bill Cassidy seat. Graves is the likely winner.


So everything as of now points to 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats and a toss-up for that 435th seat. I'm going with McSally clinging to that razor-thin lead and becoming the coveted 247th Republican, topping the 80th Congress total.

A final note of interest:

There were two incoming freshmen in that 80th Congress who would face off 14 years later in one of the closest presidential elections in history.

Young WWII Navy vets John Kennedy and Richard Nixon probably got lost looking for their offices during that first week in January of 1947.

#####

The Senate picture for the 114th Congress officially stands at 52 Republicans, 44 Democrats and 2 Independents who will caucus with the Dems (thus 52-46). Though the AP and other news organizations have called the Alaska race for Dan Sullivan, there are still close to 30,000 uncounted ballots up there and incumbent Mark Begich still refuses to concede. Sullivan's lead seems insurmountable and is almost certainly going to be seat #53 for the GOP and a Cassidy win on December 6th would give the Republicans a 54-46 Republican advantage for this Congress, meaning they're going to need 6 Dem crossovers for successful cloture votes. Unfortunately, only 2 Dem Senators are vulnerable in 2016, so there's no real motivation for the rest of them to play nice for political purposes.