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Why you should hope life isn't found in space: The Fermi Paradox / Great Filter
Posted on 11/13/14 at 8:59 pm
Posted on 11/13/14 at 8:59 pm
quote:
This something else is called The Great Filter.
The Great Filter theory says that at some point from pre-life to Type III intelligence, there’s a wall that all or nearly all attempts at life hit. There’s some stage in that long evolutionary process that is extremely unlikely or impossible for life to get beyond. That stage is The Great Filter.
One possibility: The Great Filter could be at the very beginning—it might be incredibly unusual for life to begin at all. This is a candidate because it took about a billion years of Earth’s existence to finally happen, and because we have tried extensively to replicate that event in labs and have never been able to do it. If this is indeed The Great Filter, it would mean that not only is there no intelligent life out there, there may be no other life at all.
Another possibility: The Great Filter could be the jump from the simple prokaryote cell to the complex eukaryote cell. After prokaryotes came into being, they remained that way for almost two billion years before making the evolutionary jump to being complex and having a nucleus. If this is The Great Filter, it would mean the universe is teeming with simple prokaryote cells and almost nothing beyond that.
This is why Oxford University philosopher Nick Bostrom says that “no news is good news.” The discovery of even simple life on Mars would be devastating, because it would cut out a number of potential Great Filters behind us. And if we were to find fossilized complex life on Mars, Bostrom says “it would be by far the worst news ever printed on a newspaper cover,” because it would mean The Great Filter is almost definitely ahead of us—ultimately dooming the species. Bostrom believes that when it comes to The Fermi Paradox, “the silence of the night sky is golden.”
LINK
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Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:05 pm to weagle99
Damn, never thought about it that way.
quote:
The Great Filter is almost definitely ahead of us—ultimately dooming the species
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:06 pm to weagle99
This was talked about a few months ago. I enjoyed reading it.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:07 pm to weagle99
quote:
Moving back to just our galaxy, and doing the same math on the lowest estimate for stars in the Milky Way (100 billion), we’d estimate that there are 1 billion Earth-like planets and 100,000 intelligent civilizations in our galaxy.[1]
SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) is an organization dedicated to listening for signals from other intelligent life. If we’re right that there are 100,000 or more intelligent civilizations in our galaxy, and even a fraction of them are sending out radio waves or laser beams or other modes of attempting to contact others, shouldn’t SETI’s satellite array pick up all kinds of signals?
But it hasn’t. Not one. Ever.
Where is everybody?
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:08 pm to weagle99
quote:
The discovery of even simple life on Mars would be devastating, because it would cut out a number of potential Great Filters behind us. And if we were to find fossilized complex life on Mars, Bostrom says “it would be by far the worst news ever printed on a newspaper cover,” because it would mean The Great Filter is almost definitely ahead of us—ultimately dooming the species.
Retarded
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:10 pm to weagle99
that's about the dumbest shite I've ever read.
you can bet your bottom dollar that the Great Filter is ahead of us.
you can bet your bottom dollar that the Great Filter is ahead of us.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:11 pm to wallowinit
quote:
you can bet your bottom dollar that the Great Filter is ahead of us.
Or we are in our infancy stage beyond it
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:12 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
Or we are in our infancy stage beyond it
Which means we are probably alone in the Universe.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:14 pm to weagle99
Or, ya know, there's the whole God thing too.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:14 pm to weagle99
quote:
One hypothesis as to how galactic colonization could happen is by creating machinery that can travel to other planets, spend 500 years or so self-replicating using the raw materials on their new planet, and then send two replicas off to do the same thing. Even without traveling anywhere near the speed of light, this process would colonize the whole galaxy in 3.75 million years, a relative blink of an eye when talking in the scale of billions of years:
Continuing to speculate, if 1% of intelligent life survives long enough to become a potentially galaxy-colonizing Type III Civilization, our calculations above suggest that there should be at least 1,000 Type III Civilizations in our galaxy alone—and given the power of such a civilization, their presence would likely be pretty noticeable. And yet, we see nothing, hear nothing, and we’re visited by no one.
So where is everybody?
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:15 pm to weagle99
quote:
Another possibility: The Great Filter could be the jump from the simple prokaryote cell to the complex eukaryote cell. After prokaryotes came into being, they remained that way for almost two billion years before making the evolutionary jump to being complex and having a nucleus. If this is The Great Filter, it would mean the universe is teeming with simple prokaryote cells and almost nothing beyond that.
This wouldn't be a bad bet. It's very difficult for that step to occur--otherwise we would have seen it happen repeatedly throughout the history of the earth.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:19 pm to Bestbank Tiger
There are millions of galaxy's, and millions of possibilities of varying stages of life.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:20 pm to weagle99
quote:
If this is indeed The Great Filter, it would mean that not only is there no intelligent life out there, there may be no other life at all.
I might believe that if space wasn't ummm....ya know.....INFINITE with an infinite # of planets and an infinite # of stars and an infinite # of galaxies.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:23 pm to weagle99
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/20/21 at 2:04 pm
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:24 pm to weagle99
That is an incredibly pessimistic theory.
Not only pessimistic, it is also narcissistic as well.
Not only pessimistic, it is also narcissistic as well.
This post was edited on 11/13/14 at 9:25 pm
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:25 pm to Scruffy
Throw sadistic in there as well.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:26 pm to Scruffy
So where are the others?
Remember, some of these civilizations could be billions of years ahead of us. The numbers dictate that a percentage could be that advanced if they exist.
Remember, some of these civilizations could be billions of years ahead of us. The numbers dictate that a percentage could be that advanced if they exist.
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:30 pm to weagle99
".....it's 5 year mission..... to boldly go where no man has gone before!"
Since we haven't joined the Federation of Planets most of the other intelligent alien life forms will abide by the "Prime Directive" and KTFO.
Since we haven't joined the Federation of Planets most of the other intelligent alien life forms will abide by the "Prime Directive" and KTFO.
This post was edited on 11/13/14 at 9:36 pm
Posted on 11/13/14 at 9:30 pm to weagle99
quote:
Remember, some of these civilizations could be billions of years ahead of us.
We have only had the capacity to pick up these space radio/laser/etc. waves for how many years? 20? There could be intelligent life beaming shite we can't pick up. OR there could have been aliens beaming radio waves for a hundred billion years up until the 1950s, then quit and we'd never know.
ETA: Also, imagine an intelligent race visited Earth at a time when there was no life. Would they know we would one day have an advanced civilization here? Hell no. Time is just as big as space!
This post was edited on 11/13/14 at 9:32 pm
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