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2014 MLB Offseason thread- Nelson Cruz signs 4yr/57 million with Seattle
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:41 am
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:41 am
Qualifying offers were announced a few days ago and here was the list.
For the more casual fan, teams can offer outgoing free agents a "qualifying offer" which is a one year contract at a set price based on mlb salaries, this year its 15.3 million. If the player rejects the offer, the team will get a compensation draft pick in the sandwich rounds, between the 1st and 2nd. The player has the to play the whole season on the roster, which makes mid-season trades for players with expiring deals even less attractive.
If a player rejects the contract, which most do, they go off to free agency and the team they sign with has to give up their highest unprotected draft pick(top ten are protected). The pick just goes away and isn't given to the other team. If you sign more than one qualifying offer guy, you still have to give up your next highest pick.
Max Scherzer (Tigers)
Victor Martinez (Tigers)
David Robertson (Yankees)
Melky Cabrera (Blue Jays)
James Shields (Royals)
Hanley Ramirez (Dodgers)
Pablo Sandoval (Giants) -Rejected
Nelson Cruz (Orioles)
Russell Martin (Pirates)
Francisco Liriano (Pirates)
Michael Cuddyer (Rockies)
Ervin Santana (Braves)
No one has accepted a qualifying offer the last two years but that may get broken this year as I see Cuddyer hard pressed to find a team that will give him a much better deal as hes going to be 36 and teams will be weary to give a 2 year contract to a guy who is basically a DH at this point in his career.
Nelson Cruz is the cautionary tale as last year he rejected the rangers 1 year 14mil qualifying offer, only to find teams weren't willing to give up a first round pick to sign the often injured and aging Cruz. He took a 6 million dollar hit and signed with the Orioles who already had given up a pick for Jimenez, which is a whole different thread, and the orioles gave up a 2nd round pick.
For the more casual fan, teams can offer outgoing free agents a "qualifying offer" which is a one year contract at a set price based on mlb salaries, this year its 15.3 million. If the player rejects the offer, the team will get a compensation draft pick in the sandwich rounds, between the 1st and 2nd. The player has the to play the whole season on the roster, which makes mid-season trades for players with expiring deals even less attractive.
If a player rejects the contract, which most do, they go off to free agency and the team they sign with has to give up their highest unprotected draft pick(top ten are protected). The pick just goes away and isn't given to the other team. If you sign more than one qualifying offer guy, you still have to give up your next highest pick.
Max Scherzer (Tigers)
Victor Martinez (Tigers)
David Robertson (Yankees)
Melky Cabrera (Blue Jays)
James Shields (Royals)
Hanley Ramirez (Dodgers)
Pablo Sandoval (Giants) -Rejected
Nelson Cruz (Orioles)
Russell Martin (Pirates)
Francisco Liriano (Pirates)
Michael Cuddyer (Rockies)
Ervin Santana (Braves)
No one has accepted a qualifying offer the last two years but that may get broken this year as I see Cuddyer hard pressed to find a team that will give him a much better deal as hes going to be 36 and teams will be weary to give a 2 year contract to a guy who is basically a DH at this point in his career.
Nelson Cruz is the cautionary tale as last year he rejected the rangers 1 year 14mil qualifying offer, only to find teams weren't willing to give up a first round pick to sign the often injured and aging Cruz. He took a 6 million dollar hit and signed with the Orioles who already had given up a pick for Jimenez, which is a whole different thread, and the orioles gave up a 2nd round pick.
This post was edited on 12/1/14 at 10:42 am
5
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:53 am to barry
Linked is the top 50 FAs with predictions from MLB Trade Rumors. I pasted the top 5 below- it's long
LINK
1. Max Scherzer – Yankees. Scherzer is the best starting pitcher in a free agent market loaded with quality arms, a 30-year-old strikeout machine with a Cy Young award on his resume. Including the postseason, he tallied a 3.08 ERA in 461 1/3 innings spanning 2013-14. Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM deal seems out of reach, as does its $30.7MM average annual value. A better target would be something closer to the total outlay the Yankees made last winter for Masahiro Tanaka: seven years, $175MM. Extension talks with the Tigers broke down in March after Scherzer rejected a six-year, $144MM offer. The Kershaw, Tanaka, and Zack Greinke deals all included opt-out clauses, something agent Scott Boras will likely seek as he negotiates on behalf of his best free agent starting pitcher since Barry Zito. As he has before, Boras may attempt to bypass GMs in favor of convincing a team’s owner to invest. The Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Nationals, Orioles, and Mariners are speculative suitors we’ve kicked around, with varying degrees of probability. And we can’t count the Tigers out entirely quite yet.
2. Jon Lester – Cubs. Lester, a 30-year-old southpaw, posted a 2.46 ERA this year in 219 2/3 innings for the Red Sox and Athletics. He was actually better this year than Scherzer in terms of ERA, and the two share identical 3.58 career marks. Owing to a midseason trade to Oakland, Lester is ineligible for a qualifying offer. Unable to work out an extension with Lester, the Red Sox traded him, but both sides have made an offseason reunion sound more likely than it usually is when a pending free agent star is dealt. However, the Cubs are viewed as the industry favorite for Lester, given Theo Epstein’s time in Boston, the Cubs’ need for frontline starting pitching, and their large spending capacity this winter. Lester should command at least the six years and $147MM Greinke received two years ago, and potentially more.
3. James Shields – Red Sox. The last of the Big Three starting pitchers of the 2014-15 offseason, Shields would have been the best available starter in a lot of previous winters. Big Game James has been a workhorse throughout his career with the Rays and Royals, with a 3.21 ERA in 227 regular season innings this year. He’s less of a strikeout pitcher than the two hurlers listed above him, he turns 33 in December, and he received a qualifying offer. The Red Sox are expected to make a push for him if they fail to sign Lester, but he could certainly land with any of the teams we listed for Scherzer and probably a few more. Shields could be in line for a five-year pact worth $100MM or more, though some teams will likely stop at four years given his age.
4. Hanley Ramirez – Yankees. Ramirez is the best available free agent position player this year. The Dodgers and previous GM Ned Colletti were unable or unwilling to extend him, leaving shortstop an open question for 2015 for new chief Andrew Friedman. Ramirez is a premium right-handed bat at a time when offense is harder to come by, yet he managed only 214 games from 2013-14 due to injuries. He also comes with defensive question marks as a shortstop, and could spend much of his next deal at the hot corner. The new Dodgers regime could re-engage Ramirez, but otherwise his market is unclear. The Yankees, Giants, Mariners, and Tigers are speculative matches, though there’s no perfect fit at this point. A six-year deal is likely for Ramirez, and he has a shot at reaching seven years like Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury did last winter.
5. Pablo Sandoval – Giants. Sandoval, 28, is immensely popular in San Francisco, padding his postseason heroics this year. The third baseman, nicknamed Kung Fu Panda, flashed 30 home run power in 2011, but averaged fewer than 16 longballs per 150 games in the three seasons that followed. A great bad-ball hitter, the portly switch-hitter seems likely to be paid on his postseason reputation more so than his recent regular season results. The thin market for free agent bats doesn’t hurt, either. The Giants and Sandoval have mutual interest in a new deal, while the Red Sox are the oft-cited alternative. The Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Tigers, Astros, Angels, Marlins, and Brewers are a few other teams that don’t have third base entirely locked down. Sandoval’s weight could give some teams pause, but if an older player like Choo received seven years, it has to be a possibility for Sandoval as well. The average annual value may fall short of $20MM, on a six or seven-year deal.
LINK
1. Max Scherzer – Yankees. Scherzer is the best starting pitcher in a free agent market loaded with quality arms, a 30-year-old strikeout machine with a Cy Young award on his resume. Including the postseason, he tallied a 3.08 ERA in 461 1/3 innings spanning 2013-14. Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM deal seems out of reach, as does its $30.7MM average annual value. A better target would be something closer to the total outlay the Yankees made last winter for Masahiro Tanaka: seven years, $175MM. Extension talks with the Tigers broke down in March after Scherzer rejected a six-year, $144MM offer. The Kershaw, Tanaka, and Zack Greinke deals all included opt-out clauses, something agent Scott Boras will likely seek as he negotiates on behalf of his best free agent starting pitcher since Barry Zito. As he has before, Boras may attempt to bypass GMs in favor of convincing a team’s owner to invest. The Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Nationals, Orioles, and Mariners are speculative suitors we’ve kicked around, with varying degrees of probability. And we can’t count the Tigers out entirely quite yet.
2. Jon Lester – Cubs. Lester, a 30-year-old southpaw, posted a 2.46 ERA this year in 219 2/3 innings for the Red Sox and Athletics. He was actually better this year than Scherzer in terms of ERA, and the two share identical 3.58 career marks. Owing to a midseason trade to Oakland, Lester is ineligible for a qualifying offer. Unable to work out an extension with Lester, the Red Sox traded him, but both sides have made an offseason reunion sound more likely than it usually is when a pending free agent star is dealt. However, the Cubs are viewed as the industry favorite for Lester, given Theo Epstein’s time in Boston, the Cubs’ need for frontline starting pitching, and their large spending capacity this winter. Lester should command at least the six years and $147MM Greinke received two years ago, and potentially more.
3. James Shields – Red Sox. The last of the Big Three starting pitchers of the 2014-15 offseason, Shields would have been the best available starter in a lot of previous winters. Big Game James has been a workhorse throughout his career with the Rays and Royals, with a 3.21 ERA in 227 regular season innings this year. He’s less of a strikeout pitcher than the two hurlers listed above him, he turns 33 in December, and he received a qualifying offer. The Red Sox are expected to make a push for him if they fail to sign Lester, but he could certainly land with any of the teams we listed for Scherzer and probably a few more. Shields could be in line for a five-year pact worth $100MM or more, though some teams will likely stop at four years given his age.
4. Hanley Ramirez – Yankees. Ramirez is the best available free agent position player this year. The Dodgers and previous GM Ned Colletti were unable or unwilling to extend him, leaving shortstop an open question for 2015 for new chief Andrew Friedman. Ramirez is a premium right-handed bat at a time when offense is harder to come by, yet he managed only 214 games from 2013-14 due to injuries. He also comes with defensive question marks as a shortstop, and could spend much of his next deal at the hot corner. The new Dodgers regime could re-engage Ramirez, but otherwise his market is unclear. The Yankees, Giants, Mariners, and Tigers are speculative matches, though there’s no perfect fit at this point. A six-year deal is likely for Ramirez, and he has a shot at reaching seven years like Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury did last winter.
5. Pablo Sandoval – Giants. Sandoval, 28, is immensely popular in San Francisco, padding his postseason heroics this year. The third baseman, nicknamed Kung Fu Panda, flashed 30 home run power in 2011, but averaged fewer than 16 longballs per 150 games in the three seasons that followed. A great bad-ball hitter, the portly switch-hitter seems likely to be paid on his postseason reputation more so than his recent regular season results. The thin market for free agent bats doesn’t hurt, either. The Giants and Sandoval have mutual interest in a new deal, while the Red Sox are the oft-cited alternative. The Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Tigers, Astros, Angels, Marlins, and Brewers are a few other teams that don’t have third base entirely locked down. Sandoval’s weight could give some teams pause, but if an older player like Choo received seven years, it has to be a possibility for Sandoval as well. The average annual value may fall short of $20MM, on a six or seven-year deal.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:55 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
Yankees to sit out this offseason
We've all heard that before, but that's the rumor.
Also, to add this to the MLBtraderumors list before all us cubs fans get overly excited about all the predictions to the cubs.
We've all heard that before, but that's the rumor.
Also, to add this to the MLBtraderumors list before all us cubs fans get overly excited about all the predictions to the cubs.
quote:
Please note that I’ve given up on trying to create a scenario where all 50 signings fit together, so you’ll see some redundant picks where multiple players are listed for a team that could only sign one of them. I looked at each player individually and made a pick.
This post was edited on 11/5/14 at 9:57 am
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:55 am to piggidyphish
quote:
Yankees to sit out this offseason
quote:
We've all heard that before, but that's the rumor.
Every damn year.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:57 am to piggidyphish
Yeah the predictions are pretty loose, they're fun to look at though. And there's no way the Yankees sit out this offseason
Posted on 11/5/14 at 9:59 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:05 am to WestCoastAg
quote:
Here is fangraphs crowdsourcing top 5
Thats a cool feature they do.
I don't think there is any arguing about the top 5. I suspect on Pablo though. The numbers just aren't there for him to get any sort of blockbuster deal.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:07 am to barry
I would be pretty surprised if he ends up anywhere but back in San Fran. Like you said I don't think anyone is going to throw a big contract at him and he seems to love playing for them (don't blame him)
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:10 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
He's got his rings and will be chasing a big contract this off season. I think it's very likely he ends up elsewhere.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:13 am to papz
New York Boston and the Angels are the only teams that I think would offer him enough money to convince him to leave. Yankees said they won't be going after him but that's probably bullshite
This post was edited on 11/5/14 at 10:14 am
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:18 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:I feel like whenever a big name FA is hitting the market well be on these lists even though we've been pretty consistent in the stance of not looking to add another top starter this winter
The Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Nationals, Orioles, and Mariners are speculative suitors we’ve kicked around, with varying degrees of probability
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:20 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
So there are 3 large market teams right off the bat that could be potential suitors for him. He's not taking a home town discount to remain in San Fran making it likely he won't be back in a Giants uniform. It's going to take 15+ million a year over (most likely) 5 years to sign him.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:23 am to papz
quote:
So there are 3 large market teams right off the bat that could be potential suitors for him.
Speculated by me, some fan
Yankees beat writers have come out and said they won't be going after him so that has more credibility than me quote:
He's not taking a home town discount to remain in San Fran making it likely he won't be back in a Giants uniform.
Has there been anything saying San Fran isn't going to offer him the type of deal he's seeking?
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:27 am to barry
I am not sure how Sandoval is in their top five. I prefer Cruz and Martinez even if Martinez is 482 years old.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:29 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
No there hasn't. But in a bidding war against Boston, New York, and Los Angeles(both teams), they'd lose. Detroit could also be interested and they have plenty of money coming off the books. They could sign Sandoval and put Castellanos in LF and JD in RF.
This post was edited on 11/5/14 at 10:31 am
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:31 am to papz
Seriously doubt the Dodgers will go after him so I'm not sure why you included them. I don't see him being the type of player that would invoke a bidding war and the Giants aren't cheap, they have the sixth highest payroll in baseball, larger than the Angels
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:33 am to barry
id love to see the sox scoop up Scherzer.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:39 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
That's the point. They have the 6 highest payroll in baseball right now. You think they're going to add more? I don't. The Angels can add 40 million more to their payroll easily if they wanted to... and they will.
Why wouldn't I include the Dodgers? They're the new Yankees of MLB and they have a hole at 3rd. You don't think they'll try to address the situation? Hanley is a free agent and they've been listening to offers for Kemp/Either/Crawford for quite some time now which should free up a good bit of money even if they had to swallow chunks of their contracts.
Why wouldn't I include the Dodgers? They're the new Yankees of MLB and they have a hole at 3rd. You don't think they'll try to address the situation? Hanley is a free agent and they've been listening to offers for Kemp/Either/Crawford for quite some time now which should free up a good bit of money even if they had to swallow chunks of their contracts.
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:44 am to papz
quote:we have been pretty adamant in our stance of not looking to add more expensive contracts this offseason
They're the new Yankees of MLB
quote:we are looking to trade Carl or Andre but not matt
they've been listening to offers for Kemp/Either/Crawford
quote:we are ok with Juan at 3rd for now
and they have a hole at 3rd
This post was edited on 11/5/14 at 10:45 am
Posted on 11/5/14 at 10:53 am to papz
quote:
You think they're going to add more? I don't.
They have Romo and Morse coming off the books this year which is like 12 million (probably a little less than what Sandovals bump will be) and a ton coming off next year with Peavy Lincecum and Hudson. I would think they would gladly add a little bit of payroll for a year to keep him coming off a championship.
quote:
The Angels can add 40 million more to their payroll easily if they wanted to... and they will.
I don't see them spending that kind of money this offseason but we will see. And neither of us know if they can add 40 million to their payroll
quote:
Why wouldn't I include the Dodgers? They're the new Yankees of MLB and they have a hole at 3rd. You don't think they'll try to address the situation?
Friedman won't be making them into the new Yankees. That's why they hired him, to get away from that. They also have Corey Seager who could easily end up at 3B in a couple years.
This post was edited on 11/5/14 at 10:55 am
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