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Just released Wisconsin poll - an outlier?
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:00 pm
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:00 pm
Walker up by 7 over Burke - Marquette University. This is Marquette's 10th poll on this race. Just two weeks ago, Marquette showed a 47-47 tie. This one, conducted Thursday through Sunday of last week, has Walker up 50-43. In the previous 17 polls by all pollsters, the largest lead had been 5 points.
Prior to this poll, the RCP average this morning had Walker at 47.0 to Burke's 46.8 - about as close as it can get.
LINK
Prior to this poll, the RCP average this morning had Walker at 47.0 to Burke's 46.8 - about as close as it can get.
LINK
This post was edited on 10/29/14 at 2:08 pm
5
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:06 pm to NHTIGER
Marqueete is one of the most accurate ones out there. Looks like that crying union shill we saw in 2012 will be whining again.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:06 pm to NHTIGER
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:08 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Marqueete is one of the most accurate ones out there
This. They nailed the recall %'s on the head. This was the best news for the GOP of today's polls.
It has been a bad polling day for the Dems.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:08 pm to NHTIGER
A lot of undecideds and even Democrats probably thought about the job he has done and decided he deserves reelection.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:10 pm to S.E.C. Crazy
quote:
A lot of undecideds and even Democrats probably thought about the job he has done and decided he deserves reelection.
I wonder how many of them are disgusted by the Democrat DA and Public Sector Unions attempt to destroy the man via the John Doe investigation?
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:11 pm to S.E.C. Crazy
Even Rex, of all people, supports scott walker. I remember him repeatedly praising the governor on this board during the recall.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:11 pm to NHTIGER
Gotta be an outlier.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:13 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Looks like that crying union shill we saw in 2012 will be whining again.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:18 pm to S.E.C. Crazy
quote:
A lot of undecideds and even Democrats probably thought about the job he has done and decided he deserves reelection.
Looks like more of the GOP voters came home and didn't really peel in Dem votes off the last poll.
RV was walker +1. So not sure if its an outlier but I see it being a little closer than +7. Wisconsin has a lot of pockets of progressives.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:20 pm to udtiger
quote:
Gotta be an outlier.
It could be, considering its disparity with all other polls. However, it's the same pollster that showed a 47-47 tie just two weeks ago, and outliers usually come from polling firms that are not frequent pollers for a given race.
It could also be due to:
- "In Marquette's last poll, 82% of Republicans and 80% of Democrats said they were certain to vote.
In the new poll, 93% of Republicans and 82% of Democrats said they were certain to vote."
- "In the new poll, Walker enjoys a significant lead among independents, who have bounced around more than partisan voters in this race. Among likely voters, Walker leads among independents 52% to 37%."
- "One other shift in the new poll: Burke's personal ratings have worsened, while Walker's haven't changed much. Among registered voters, 38% view Burke favorably while 45% view her unfavorably. Among likely voters, 39% view her favorably while 49% view her unfavorably. "It's the first time we've seen her that far upside down or under water on favorability ratings," said poll director Charles Franklin."
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:21 pm to NHTIGER
Obama effect, he went to Wisconsin early this week to campaign.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:25 pm to TigerintheNO
quote:
Obama effect, he went to Wisconsin early this week to campaign.
Yeah I saw he went to an AA ward that voted 843-5 for him.
There were some predicting WI for Romney but I didn't see that.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:27 pm to TigerintheNO
quote:
Obama effect, he went to Wisconsin early this week to campaign.
Unfortunately, the poll was conducted at the end of last week. Marquette won't be doing an 11th poll, so we'll never know if the Obama visit on Monday affects the numbers.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:28 pm to TN_Tigers
quote:
Yeah I saw he went to an AA ward that voted 843-5 for him.
No soup for those 5.
Posted on 10/29/14 at 2:31 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
Unfortunately, the poll was conducted at the end of last week.
Yeah this is pre Obama visit and pre Christie bashing. I know Christies unfavorable are high in Iowa, I'd expect them to not be much better in WI. Not sure it would make much of a difference but any little bit could help.
This would, however, factor in BJ Clinton and Moochelle's visits.
This post was edited on 10/29/14 at 2:42 pm
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