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FiveThirtyEight NBA Preview – Pels 11th in West
Posted on 10/27/14 at 12:08 am
Posted on 10/27/14 at 12:08 am
LINK
quote:
Anthony Davis cannot generate any more hype — there’s that much of it already. Fresh off a dominating performance at the FIBA World Cup (54 percent shooting from the floor, 6.6 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game), Davis is poised to make the jump into the game’s elite.
Last year, when he wasn’t on the bench with a fractured hand, Davis put together an offensive season that was nearly as good as any by a second-year power forward or center in the past 30 years. If we look at his Offensive Rating7 versus his Usage Rate, Davis produced a season matched only by Shaquille O’Neal and David Robinson, scoring at an efficient rate while using more than 25 percent of his team’s possessions.
Of course, not all of Davis’s stats were world-beating last season. According to Evan Zamir’s invaluable NBA WOWY database, New Orleans allowed as many points per possession (1.10) when Davis was on the court as when he was not. And despite his 6.7 percent block rate (most among players who played more than 2,000 minutes), Pelicans opponents took a larger percentage of their shots at the basket and made a larger percentage when Davis was on the floor.
While Davis definitely has improvements to make defensively (see Zach Lowe’s excellent feature for details), New Orleans had other defensive shortcomings last season. Which is why the Pelicans signed Omer Asik. Asik was one of the best defensive centers in the league according to Real Plus-Minus, and should provide Davis with a legitimate defensive backcourt partner who might be able to complement his athleticism and uncanny ability to block shots.
As long as Davis can remain healthy, his performance at the World Cup and the improvement of his supporting cast both point toward his ascension into the top five or 10 players in the NBA. — John Ezekowitz
7
Posted on 10/27/14 at 12:13 am to Broski
38-44? lol
Posted on 10/27/14 at 12:14 am to Broski
interesting that they list passing as a weakness for Asik. He looked really good passing in preseason, imo.
And a little funny that Jimmer gets a poo and not Austin. I thought the media had a consensus that Rivers was hot garbage.
And a little funny that Jimmer gets a poo and not Austin. I thought the media had a consensus that Rivers was hot garbage.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 12:16 am to Cap Crunch
quote:if there are no significant injuries and we finish around this, monty better not have a job
38-44? lol
Posted on 10/27/14 at 12:18 am to saintsfan92612
quote:
And a little funny that Jimmer gets a poo and not Austin. I thought the media had a consensus that Rivers was hot garbage.
Yeah, it's weird that they list Rivers' stock going up.
Fear is Nate Silver?
Posted on 10/27/14 at 12:34 am to Broski
I HIGHLY doubt we win only 38 games.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 1:01 am to Broski
quote:
Fear is Nate Silver?
Posted on 10/27/14 at 5:25 am to Broski
quote:
As long as Davis can remain healthy, his performance at the World Cup and the improvement of his supporting cast both point toward his ascension into the top five or 10 players in the NBA.
Ascension into the top 10? Ha. Dude is already top 3.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:16 am to LosLobos111
quote:
I HIGHLY doubt we win only 38 games.
Without major injuries, it's pretty much impossible for this team to win only 38.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:20 am to Broski
quote:
0.0% probability of winning NBA title
well shite. just pack up the bags, guys. forfeit the season. no point in playing.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 8:27 am to Broski
The NBA is rigged
Posted on 10/27/14 at 9:34 am to Epic Cajun
538, Nylon Calculus (their own projection is out today and has 37/38 for the Pels) Box Score Geeks and any other statistical model will not like the Pelicans.
None of the guards rate better than average in advanced metrics for their careers. Davis is a stud, but his RAPM was thoroughly mediocre. They do love Anderson taking tons of 3s and Asiks defense.
Models can be wrong, no one thought Phoenix would be any good. Same time, these are smart people. Dismissing them out of hand is silly
None of the guards rate better than average in advanced metrics for their careers. Davis is a stud, but his RAPM was thoroughly mediocre. They do love Anderson taking tons of 3s and Asiks defense.
Models can be wrong, no one thought Phoenix would be any good. Same time, these are smart people. Dismissing them out of hand is silly
Posted on 10/27/14 at 10:09 am to corndeaux
quote:
FiveThirtyEight NBA Preview – Pels 11th in West
538, Nylon Calculus (their own projection is out today and has 37/38 for the Pels) Box Score Geeks and any other statistical model will not like the Pelicans.
None of the guards rate better than average in advanced metrics for their careers. Davis is a stud, but his RAPM was thoroughly mediocre. They do love Anderson taking tons of 3s and Asiks defense.
Models can be wrong, no one thought Phoenix would be any good. Same time, these are smart people. Dismissing them out of hand is silly
You don't need statistical models to tell you that a healthy team with an addition of Asik is worth more than 3-4 wins.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 10:33 am to Broski
For all of Rivers' weaknesses, he's pretty solid defensively IMO
Posted on 10/27/14 at 12:40 pm to saintsfan92612
quote:
interesting that they list passing as a weakness for Asik. He looked really good passing in preseason, imo.
I never saw an issue with his passing in his 2-3 years here.
He can't CATCH a pass for shite, but his kick outs to 3 and drop offs to a cutter were always fine.
Posted on 10/27/14 at 12:46 pm to MSMHater
quote:
I never saw an issue with his passing in his 2-3 years here. He can't CATCH a pass for shite, but his kick outs to 3 and drop offs to a cutter were always fine
I love how everybody keeps basing observations on Asik to how he performed in the preseason. Like he hasn't been in the league for 4 seasons. I'm thinking the experts are basing their observations off how he has preformed in past seasons. He has never cracked an assist per game. His best season was .9 per game. Cousins gets thrashed for the same thing and he averaged 2.9 last season..
Posted on 10/27/14 at 12:58 pm to brmark70816
quote:
I love how everybody keeps basing observations on Asik to how he performed in the preseason.
Was that aimed at me? Honestly, I can't tell. I've been watching all of his games for 3 years, and haven't seen a single preseason game with him this year.
quote:
He has never cracked an assist per game.
We was only a starter for one season and The Rockets or bulls would never dump a pass into him unless it was a busted play. His assists came from rebounding and kicking out or dishing off after the offensive rebound.
He still tends to want to lay the ball back in on a put back instead of dunking with two hands (which he can do), so his put backs were blocked alot. But we always had shooters on the perimeter for him to kick to, or Parsons/Harden cutting to the basket. That's where his minimal assists came from, and they were rarely bad passes.
His TO's happen when he's the recipient of a tough pass, or he tries to put the ball on the ground.
This post was edited on 10/27/14 at 1:00 pm
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